Chalk Eating Weasel Report

Summit of Speed, Part 2

2010-07-10T04:38:00.000-07:00

Quickly back with the last 3 races of Calder's Summit of Speed.

The Carry Back Stakes, Race 9 on your program consists of D' Funnybone and 4 pretenders necessary to fill the race. D' Funnybone consistently runs 6f almost 2 seconds faster than any of the others. The only way to play this race is to use D' Funnybone as a single in your Pick 4

As I said this is just a quickie as I would like to take a look at todays Belmont Card before heading to the races.

For the G3 Azalea Stakes #5 Buckleupbuttercup turns back in distance and trainer Eddie Kenneally is 33% with the Route to Sprint maneuver. #8 Pica Slew blistered the track here in the Leave Me Alone Stakes on Pre-View day so look for another good showing from her. Finally Bronx City Girl is first of the claim for Marty Wolfson. Marty doesn't play the claiming game very often but he does it at a 78% success rate next out. Still #6BCG has not proven herself in any way in stakes competition and only merits 3rd choice.

Odds
#5 Buckleupbuttercup play at 2/1 or better
#8 Pica Slew play at 9/2 or better
#6 Bronx City Girl plat at 9/1 or better.

The 11th race, The Princess Rooney Handicap-G1, is a good contentious affair. Again there are 6 or maybe 7 that have legit chances here, but I have to settle on only 3 or in this case 4 contenders. #7 Dr. Zic is one who didn't make the cut although I wouldn't be surprised if she wires the field. #13 First Passage is a horse for the course, but I think her late closing running style combined with the far outside draw hurts her chances here. Still watch for the weather, a drying track at Calder can do funny things to the track profile, and for scratches which may move First Passage a few lanes closer to the rail.

The 4 I settled on are #8 Dubai Majesty, almost another horse for the course with 3 wins in 8 races coming out of a G3 win in the Winning Colors at Churchill Downs. #9 Warbling who is probably as good as if not better than Dubai Majesty, just don't know how she'll handle the track. #5 Mother Ruth who just has the look of a horse that has suddenly learned what its all about. and #4 Hour Glass who is 4 of 5 at the distance and comes of a G2 win at Belmont, Vagrancy Handicap.

Playable odds

#8 Dubai Majesty 9/2
#9 Warbling 5/1
#5 Mother Ruth 7/1
#4 Hour Glass 8/1

That's all today.

I'm gone

Grade 2 Smile Sprint Handicap from Calder Race Course

2010-07-07T13:46:00.000-07:00

On July 10 Calder Race Course (and casino) will be holding their annual Summit of Speed. This year I will bring some of my feelings on the races beginning today with Race 10 in your program, the Smile Sprint Handicap. As is my custom, I will be attending the races live and might even stray from the simulcast monitors long enough to go down and look at the horses if it's not raining. Look for me. I'll have on the sunglasses and the brown HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) cap. Speaking of HANA. After this day is over, I am going to write an article regarding my take on the day and how well, or poorly Calder Race Course (and casino) handled what should be a large crowd and submit it to HANA for posting on their website.

The Smile Sprint looks to be an exciting race on paper. 13 are entered. Personally I'd like to see at least 5 of the entries scratched as I don't think they really belong in this race. Rusty Charlie was passed as if he was standing still when he faced of against Big Drama in what was certainly a tune up race for the latter 2 back. Trainer Francisco Machado then foolishly brought ol' Rusty back on 7 days rest for another overnight try in which Charlie failed miserably. give ol' Rusty a break because he doesn't belong with these.

Sincero, Gato Go Win, How's Your Halo, Causeway's Kin, Not For Silver, and Golden Spikes are the other non-contenders of which, with varying degrees of vehemence, I would like to see exit the race gracefully pre-post.

This still leaves us with a nice contentious race consisting of #2 Go Go Shoot trained by Pletcher with David Cohen on board. I don't recall ever seeing Cohen ride for Pletcher, but, according to Brisnet's Ultimate PP's he's done 15 times in the last 60 days and done it quite well with a 45% win rate. Go Go Shoot has some flashy speed and should set the pace or certainly be a major pace factor on a speed favoring track. But there is a lot of other speed in this race and horses like Rusty Charlie, Causeway's Kin or Taqarub may force him to go faster than he'd like early on. Go Go Shoot has run twice before on the Calder Course and has yet to show any particular liking for the surface. I think Saturday will be more or the same in that regard for Go Go Shoot.

#13 Snapshot is the other horse in this race I think could win but probably won't. If all 13 go in this race I see him getting hung out wide on the turn considering a fast early pace will make that turn come faster than someone from the far outside probably wants it to.

Now for the primary contenders. The interesting horse in this race is #3 Mambo Meister ridden by local perennial jockey leader Manoel Cruz and trained by Phillip Gleaves. Mambo Meister has 9 wins in 29 starts and I think nearly all of them have come on this track (you can check that if you want too). In any event, I do know that Mambo Meister is 6 for 9 at CRC and no rider knows this track better than Manny Cruz. Especially if it rains. What is interesting is that Mambo Meister has mostly been a router up to now. However the workout line shows 4 works since his last outing a 4 furlong and three 3 furlong works including a blistering 34 sec sprint on June 28. I don't usually pay much attention to workouts, but this caught my eye enough to make Mambo Meister the #4 contender at 6-1 odds, play him at 9-1 or better.

The #3 contender is #7 Taqarub trained by Kiaran McLaughlin and ridden by Edgar Prado. Winner of his last out on Preakness day at 13-1 and being recently flattered by Roaring Lion at Monmouth this 4 year old colt is 4 for 5 at the distance and 1 for 1 on off tracks which is something to pay attention to at CRC in the Summer time. Taqarub is 5-1 on my line play him at 8-1 or better

The co-#1 contender is #8 Congressional Page (Trombetta/Albarado). Congressional Page has never lost at this distance and is 2 for 2 on off tracks. Congressional Page is a pressing type with the tactical speed to stay close enough to catch the front runners. I think the race sets up for him from a pace stand point. Congressional Page burned up the track in his last out at Monmouth covering 6f in 1:09.4. I make CP co favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better with #10 Big Drama.

#10 Big Drama (Fawkes/Coa) romped easily past ol' Rusty Charlie in a leisurely 1:10.6 in the Ponche Hdcp. I watched that race and note that he could've gone faster, he just didn't have to.
Big Drama is a G2 winner who just loves CRC and a definite horse for the course with 5 wins in 6 tries. As a 2 year old Big Drama dominated the Florida Stallion Stakes Series. Big Drama is 3 for 3 at this distance and along with being the horse for the course becomes my co-favorite at 3-1, play at 9/2 or better.

To some these odds may seem a little high and you don't want to sit out this race. Really though, there are 6 solid choices in this race that should take serious money. I feel pretty certain there will be an overlay to be found among these four, maybe even two. Hold out for a price because I think this race will be too tight to be eatin' any low-priced chalk.

Later

All's Quiet

2010-05-08T05:18:00.000-07:00

It's that quiet time between the Derby and the Preakness. Many of the trainers and owners playing it cagey in trying to decide whether to run in the Preakness or skip the middle and load up for the Belmont.

As for me, I stand by my position that Jackson Bend should have skipped the Derby and aimed directly for the Preakness. Conveyance and Noble's Promise are not in the Preakness. Ice Box is out and they are still on the fence regarding Lookin at Lucky and Jackson Bend. I think I saw Pleasant Prince will be in.

You probably know by now Eskendereya is retired to stud. Sad news for racing fans but good news that the injury is not catastrophic. Esky now gets to live the life of a king. Good for him.

A few selections for today.

In the Winter Melody Stakes at Delaware, I like the horse for the course and distance. Delaware Park has been a #5 Magicalcarpetride for the daughter of Smart Strike. Trainer Anthony Dutrow is 43% going turf to dirt. Strong move for Tony and you should get a reasonable price here. #3 Miss Match has been racing against better and appears to be the class in the race. Third choice #8 Mindy Sue has never finished out of the money in 8 trips to the post.

In the Unbridled Sidney at Chuchill Downs #2 Knockout Bertie has been knocking on the door for red-hot trainer Stephen Margolis. I think Sean Bridgmohan will get her to the wire first today. It's hard to pick against 2nd choice #5 Selva, but jockey Robby Albarado has been ice cold at Churchill so far and his record on Turf is less than stellar even in good cirmcumstances. Still, Selva comes out of the key race Bienville60k with a 2nd place finish, so maybe fortunes will turn for Robby today. #8 Candy Cane races for the first time under the tutelage of Rick Dutrow, which is always a live chance in my book.

Belmont Park brings us the G2 Dwyer Stakes for 3 year olds. #2 Drosselmeyer seems to be the one to beat, but you'll have to be willing to accept a fairly low price to back this one. Anything over 7/5 seems fair here. #5 Remand ran a good 3rd in the Bayshore at the Big A and could come home first if Drosselmeyer happens to be looking forward to the Belmont Stakes. #7 Fly Down gets a tepid nod as 3rd choice; however I find the #1 Carnivore interesting as the lone speed long shot try. Carnivore has never run fast enough to beat most in this race, but if he gets brave on the lead who knows what could happen. Play only at a huge price.

Finally hooray for Hollywood and the G2 Mervyn Leroy handicap. #1 Dakota PHONEd the last one in on the dirt at Oaklawn. Now he's back on a more familiar surface and has been running great for Jerry Hollendorfer. If all things were equal, I'd still favor #6 Rail Trip in this position who I think could demolish this field while doing the backstroke. But the 244 day layoff has me thinking Rail Trip might need a race before firing his best shot. RT may not need his best shot to win here, but the price will be short and the layoff makes him vulnerable. #3 Slew's Tiznow rounds out the top three.

That's all I got for today. Going down to Miami to move my son out later. Will be hanging out at Calder tomorrow at the Home Stretch Bar next to the Poker Room. Just shout,"Where's that Chalk Eatin' Weasel?!" if you happen to be in the neighborhood. Maybe I'll buy you a drink.

I'm off

Derby Day 2010.."Who'll Stop The Rain"

2010-05-01T06:29:00.000-07:00

Just a quicky for Derby Day today. Got to look at the form for Calder as the wife ambushed me with the assumption that we were going to Calder for today's festivities. I wanted to watch the racing from the comfort of my living room.

First up is the G1 Humana Distaff. What better race to look for mudders than in a race for 4 and up fillies and mares.

Top pick is #3 Informed Decision winner of last years Humana on a sloppy Derby day. Last year Informed Decision also broke from post 3, was 2nd off a layoff, had J. Leparoux aboard, and came out of the G1 Madison at Keeneland. Holy deja vu, Batman! History repeats itself today.

#6 has been "Pretty Prolific" on an off track and has been swapping strides with the number 3 contender, Warbling, for the last three races winning once and finishing behind her the other two times. The win came on a sloppy track; therefore advantage Pretty Prolific.

#2 Warbling is fairly accomplished for a mere 5 race career including a win over next out winner Tar Heel Mom in the G2 Inside Information stakes at Gulfstream Park last out. Look's like she can handle an off track OK and should have a strong chance here.

If you're looking for a live longshot look no further than the #9 Rated Fiesty running for Steve Asmussen. 1 for 1 in slop and 2 for 2 at Churchill Downs. She's not as accomplished as the other 3, but she does have ability and the stars may be aligned for her today.

The G2 Churchill Downs is full of familiar names the classiest of which may be #7 Warrior's Reward. Once again J. Leparoux has the reins. Warrior has found rewards on off going and is 3 for 4 at the distance. A true specialist at this distance.

#12 Musket Man ran well in the Derby last year finishing 3rd and has been triple digit Brisnet consistent losing by only a nose to the top choice last out. If the top choice falters in any way, Musket Man should be right there

3rd choice is #8 Ventana a G2 winner last out. Raced well in one try over off going and ships in for Bob Baffert who is an astonishing 24% in Graded races with a positive ROI meaning all these runners are not going off at short prices. Jockey of the year runner up Garret Gomez is in the irons and West Coast runner have been doing well when coming east.

Long shot choice for this race is #13 Accredit. 5 for 5 on off tracks he is a true mudder who might take it all if he is on his fodder. Sorry I just couldn't help myself. Accredit won this race last year at 4 to 1 and considering the competition I expect he'll be a longer price this year.

Now for the Derby. Truth is, I don't have a clue. But I have opinions. I've been Lookin at Lucky since the Rebel and can't stop now even with the #1 post position draw. #1 Lookin at Lucky is the top choice.

The next choice in order are #6 Stately Victor, #10 Paddy O Prado with excellent off track breeding and #11 Devil May Care who has been working well on the sloppy Churchill track.

Good luck and I'm Off

Ladies First

2010-04-29T13:32:00.000-07:00

The most important day of racing in North America, Breeder's Cup included, is preceded by the KY Derby equivalent for 3 year old fillies, the Kentucky Oaks to be run tomorrow at 5:45. Unlike the first Saturday in May this year, the forecast for the last Friday in April for Louisville is sunny skies

Last year's edition featured a short field that was completely outclassed by Rachel Alexander. This years offering should be an interesting race with a full field of betting opportunities.

There is a class horse in the race by the name of Blind Luck a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner and third place finisher in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. Blind Luck is your likely favorite and deserves to be, but she isn't a slam dunk.

Amen Hallelujah is consistent as all get out having finished in the money in 5 consecutive graded events. She has excellent tactical speed and will likely be forwardly placed, but she is not a need to lead type so look for someone else to set the early fractions. Her speed numbers in her last three G2 outing in which she won 2 of 3 put her right in the thick of things. She may be the one to catch when they turn for the stretch. Oh, and did I mention Julien Leparoux?

Evening Jewel won the G1 Ashland at Keeneland last out and came within a nose of the favorite 2 races back. This makes Evening Jewel an automatic contender to upset Blind Luck. Evening Jewel wired the Ashland but don't expect a repeat of that tactic in this race.

The third choice to upset Blind Luck is Beautician. Why not? A cursory look at her form shows what appears to be a spotty performer. On one day and way off the next. But take a closer look.
Beautician broke her maiden in her first race on this very track. Went directly to Saratoga with 2 strong efforts in the G3 Schuylerville and G1 Spinaway Stakes. Moved on to Keeneland in the fall on their all-weather surface turning in a so-so effort. Bested Blind Luck in the BC Juvenile with a 2nd place finish. Real bad at Hollywood, different surface. Real good at Oaklawn, back on dirt and so-so again at Keeneland. Now she is back on the surface she is proven on. Look for a strong effort. I'd go so far as to make her my upset pick for the race.

Quiet Temper and Crisp also deserve mention as possibilities, but you can't play the entire field.

Gun to my head, Blind Luck. However I'll be taking a good hard look to upset Blind Luck in this race and think I have provided three solid prospects to pull that off. Whatever you do, best of luck.

I'll be back with the Derby and other races from Saturday's Churchill card.

Get free PP's for most major stakes racing from the TBA http://www.tbablogs.com/.

I'm off

Skip the Derby--Aim for the Preakness

2010-04-17T05:37:00.000-07:00

That's my advice to the connections of the hardest working 3 yo colt in racing, Jackson Bend. Not that they need my advice. Nick Zito has more experience in his little toe than I have in my super-sized body when it comes to placing horses in classic races.

However, it seems to me that Jackson Bend has been chasing Eskendereya up and down the East Coast and clearly seems to be 2nd best to the talented son of Giant's Causeway. Zito implies in an interview on Bloodhorse.com http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56470/jackson-bend-in-fast-workout-at-churchill that JB will need someone to make a mistake.

I would not subject my horse to that cavalry charge unless I thought his chances of succeeding were better than depending on someone else to make an error. Rather, I would point my horse toward a race on a track with tight turns that may favor a horse that is small in stature, but perhaps more agile than his larger counterparts. A track like say.....Pimlico?

Pleasant Prince will run in the G3 Cliff's Edge Derby Trial on April 24 in a last ditch effort to get in the Derby. The winner of this race gains an automatic berth in the Derby. Not exactly the usual path to the Derby winner's circle. Owner Ken Ramsey points out the last horse to pull off the Derby Trial/Derby exacta was Tim Tam in 1958.

Looking at two stakes races from Keeneland today. First up is Race 8, the 5 1/2 furlong (turf) Giant's Causeway for fillies and mares 3 and up

This race is guaranteed to have a lot of pace with 4 need to lead types running. Therefore the logical choice will be an off the pace type and West Ocean, trained by Todd Pletcher, fits the bill perfectly. Winner by 5 lengths in the Bienville at the Fairgrounds last out the 4 yo filly has really awakened since cutting back to sprint distances. Statistic to note is rider JJ Castellano is winning at a 41% clip over the last 60 days when riding for Pletcher.

No turf sprint stakes would be complete without an entry or two from Linda Rice. She has 2 in this race each making their 2010 debuts. Ahvee's Destiny has been training at Palm Meadows in Florida and with speed sitting on the rail has to be considered dangerous. But the stronger of the two is Canadian Ballet who hasn't raced since her Breeder's Cup Turf Sprint effort. Canadian Ballet has also been training at the Florida training track. If the pace of this race didn't promise to be so torrid, this filly could easily be the top selection.

Third choice is Libor Lady. Toss her last on the main track at Santa Anita. This 5 year old mare is 7 for 11 at the distance and never out of the money. Again, only the pace keeps this one down from being a top choice.

In summary, the picks and odds needed to play.

7. West Ocean 2/1
8. Canadian Ballet 5/1
3 Libor Lady 7/1

The other race I'm covering today is the G2 Coolmore Lexington Stakes for three year olds

This race shapes up to be very competitive and a long price will be no surprise. However, I think I have been able to narrow the field down to the main contenders.

My top pick for the race is the horse breaking from pp1, Krypton. Krypton won a 7f allowance for non-winners of one other than last out in decisive fashion. Since there are no real giant killers in this race, only 1 previous G3 winner, I am not overly concerned about the lack of stakes experience here. Key stats for Kypton: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin is 25% with a positive ROI going sprint to route and the Alan Garcia/McLaughlin combination is 38% with a positive ROI over the last 60 days.

Second choice Lonesome Street comes out of a 2nd place effort in the Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park. The comment line shows some trouble at 7/8th. Key for Lonesome Street is the positive jockey switch to Julien Leparoux. Stats of note: Trainer Michael Maker is 30% on all-weather surfaces (+ROI) and 28% when his horses are running routes (+ROI).

The 3rd choice is the lone speed horse in the race Exhi trained by Todd Pletcher. Exhi is the winner of the Rushaway Stakes and is a sure bet to be leading at the 1/4 and 1/2 poles. The question is whether or not the others will be able to reel him in. Last time out, Lonesome Street could not make up the ground. This time may be different, or, it may not.

Summary and needed odds

1 Krypton 3/1
7 Lonesome Street 9/2
8 Exhi 5/1

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Last Chance For Some Derby Hopefuls

2010-04-10T05:14:00.000-07:00

Going into the what is realistically the last chance for some Derby hopefuls to gain the coveted graded stakes earnings they need to gain entry into the Kentucky Derby. For today, the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland and Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn will be the big draws.

First up to Lexington, Ky for the Bluegrass Stakes. The race shapes up as one of those types where we are absent the presence of any confirmed lead horses.

The 2 horse, First Dude, is the only contender with a Quirin figure suggesting a front running style (E6). However, never in his 5 career races has First Dude been on the lead in the first 2 calls.

This is important because much of the discussion this week has involved Florida Derby runner-up Pleasant Prince. But the Florida Derby had 4 of 11 entries with early speed Quirin designations. I figured the race was set up for an off the pace type which is why Pleasant Prince, at 29/1, was my top selection (It still hurts). Eventual winner, Ice Box, came from dead last to nip Pleasant Prince at the wire, so they say. Going into the race Ice Box had an Early Presser (EP) Quirin figure, but he ran an "S" style (closer) race on that day.

The whole point is that the Bluegrass Stakes sets up in such a manner that it is going to make winning much more difficult for off the pace running styles to win today. I like Pleasant Prince and consider him a solid contender, but am looking elsewhere for a top contender.

To find that contender I have to look no farther than Post Position #1 for the G3 Tampa Derby winner Odysseus. Odysseus has shown the tactical ability to run near the lead and I think that is what will be required to win the race. Odysseus also showed alot of heart in his Tampa win to come back and get Schoolyard Dreams and Super Saver at the wire.

Pleasant Prince also showed some ability to stay near a quick pace in the Florida Derby, and his nip and tuck duel down the stretch with Ice Box showed that he will not wilt under pressure. If he can stay close to the leaders today, he may yet find his way to the Winner's Circle and is my second choice in the race.

For a third selection, I'm looking for a potential longshot to pull off the upset. #7 Paddy O Prado moves to the main track after running his last 4 on grass including a win in the G3 Palm Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park. His Quirin figure is (S3) indicating the closing style so typical of turf runners, but he was never more than half a length off the leader at the calls in his Palm Beach win. Paddy is also flattered by Dean's Kitten who finished 2nd in the Palm Beach and went on to win the G2 Lanes End at Turfway next out. Paddy has Kent Desormeaux riding him today. Kent started off the Gulfstream meet slowly but has been picking it up lately and has been a hot jockey recently. I look for Paddy to give a good account of himself today and if the top two picks falter he may be there to pick up the pieces and the win.

In summary, the picks and the odds I need to play them

#1 Odysseus 3-1
#6 Pleasant Prince 4-1
#7 Paddy O' Prado 7-1

The Arkansas Derby shapes up differently from the Bluegrass with 3 of the 9 contenders sporting early running preferences. The morning line favorite Super Saver sits on the rail and has Calvin Bo-rail riding him. He looks to be the best of the bunch who will contend for the lead at the first call. However, it is the leader at the final call the matters. I don't expect the Morning Line favorite to be the first to cross under the wire.

Of the "P" (presser) types, only Dublin appears to have the credentials to find the wire first, but a look at the comment lines tells me he may not be the choice. The comment lines are full of "weakened, "4w", "no response", "Drifted wide no bid", "Stumbled, wide no bid". You get my point. Also. a look at his last effort in the G2 Rebel shows the horse to be really gassed in the final 16th.

This leaves for us the Early Presser's (EP). Of these, Noble's Promise seems the most promising. Nobles's Promise has been racing against much better and even though this is a Grade 1 event, I get the feeling you can almost claim a little bit of class relief for the son of Cuvee. His pedigree suggests the classic distance may be too much for him, but he has shown he can handle 9 furlongs. I expect him to win today.

Of course it is a horse race, so you need a plan b and a plan c. The second choice is Northern Giant. This son of Giant's Causeway has the look of a 3 year old that may be peaking at just the right time. Northern Giant has place and show finishes in his last two Grade 2 outings and does not need to move forward much here to take the top prize.

Finally for the third contender we are going to take Uh Oh Bango. Uh Oh gets a positive rider switch to Sean Bridgmohan and is coming 2nd off the layoff. Look for him to improve upon his 3YO debut into the Rebel where he finished 4th. Uh Oh ran just off the pace for the first two calls before tiring to a 4th place finish. Given a tough assignment in his first back since December, the race should have done him some good, and he gets the prize as most likely to improve. If he lives up to that promise he may be most likely to finish first.

The contenders and required odds to play are as follows

#3 Noble's Promise 2-1
#4 Northern Giant 5-1
#5 Uh Oh Bango 7-1

For other opinions, be sure to visit the TBA home page http://www.tbablogs.com/. The information used to make these selections was obtained, in part, from Brisnet Ultimate Past Performance which can be obtained gratis from the TBA home page.

I'm Off!

Easter Sunday at Gulfstream Park

2010-04-04T16:36:00.000-07:00

Have you ever noticed when watching a college football game, or even a high school game for that matter, the game can be totally entertaining even with the full realization that you are not watching the best athletes compete? That was feeling today at Gulfstream Park where there was not a single stakes race and the highest level race was an Allowance for non-winners of 3.

Yet, the racing was superbly competitive. Combine the racing with an excellent Easter Day brunch, the Weasel and his Mrs. had an excellent day at the races.

Today the Weasel played 7 of the 9 races on the card. Because we had a friend with us and it was a more social occassion than most trips to the track, I used a simple wagering strategy for all 7 races. 1 betting unit to win and 3 betting units on the same horse selected based on perceived value. This turned out to be an ingenious strategy on this day as the Weasel cashed on 5 of the 7 wagers laid, all place bets. Go figure.

As for yesterday's action. Eskendereya did all you could expect of him unless you are some kind of chronic skeptic. Why blame the horse for being so superior to his competition? Lookin At Lucky apparently disappointed Bob Baffert, from what I've read, but not the Weasel who warned you off this short priced Derby hopeful.

Both American Lion and Sidney's Candy were able to get easy early leads all the way to the wire punching their Derby tickets in the process. We'll see if they are allowed to set such easy fractions when the real honors of the "Greatest 2 minutes in sports" is upon them. Yawanna Twist impressed the Weasel in his 2nd place effort as did Jackson Bend who surprised me a little bit in holding place in the Wood. I still don't think he can win the Derby.

Totally whiffed on the Ashland as Beautician ran more like a Calder claimer in late September than a Breeder's Cup contender. That's racing for you.

Be sure to check out the other TBA blogs. You can find a list of them to the left of this article. You will get more free and valuable information about the KY Derby and racing in general for free than you could ever pay for from the so-called experts at DRF, Brisnet, or anywhere else you care to look. I've looked, I know.

That's all for now. Gotta go back to work. At least I have work to go back to, for now.

I'm Off

Derby and Oaks Prep Races

2010-04-03T07:27:00.000-07:00

Today is probably the last day for serious Kentucky Derby contenders and wannabes to prep for what remains the most important race for 3 year olds in North America if not the world.

I really wish I had some stunning upsets to predict, but I just can't see it happening. But the good news is, Brisnet's The Wizard would be charging you hard earned money for the same picks you will likely get here for free.

By the way, speaking of free. The information I used to make these selections was obtained from the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance page at http://www.tbablogs.com/. Be sure to pay them a visit. There are many great horse bloggers there and plenty of racing information and selections besides my own. Check them out

The first race is actually a prep for the Kentucky Oaks featuring 3 graduates from the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies. The G1 Ashland Stakes.

I think Beautician coming 2nd off the layoff for Kenneth McPeek out of the G3 Honeybee looks to be a strong contender after finishing 2nd in the aforementioned race. The comment line has Beautician boxed in at the 1/4 pole in the Honeybee. I look for her to move forward under Robby Albarado for this race.

However, Beautician will have to overcome the winner of the Juvenile Fillies, She Be Wild, if she wants to wear the Ashland crown. She Be Wild is trained by Wayne Catalano who has done just fine after getting out from under the thumb of Frank Calabrese. In fact, Catalano has won with 27% of last 37 graded stakes entries and is 37% with the beaten favorite the last 231 times this situation has occurred. With statistics like these and a strong horse under Jose Lezcano, there is no way to count She Be Wild out of the running.

She Be Wild's last race was the G2 Forward Gal on Jan. 31 at Gulfstream where she basically pulled a merry-go-round job in finishing 5th of 11. I'm sure Catalano will be looking for more this time around.

The other BC Filly Juvie grad is Negligee. Coming off a 4 month layoff I'm expecting this may be a conditioner and a true prep for the Oaks for Negligee. However, trainer Terranova is 16% off layoffs of greater than 90 days with a +ROI. Still I would look elsewhere here.

One horse that peeked my interest here as a possible long shot play is Protesting trained by Shug McGaughey. She did not show much in two allowance efforts at Gulfstream but the 95 Brisnet speed figure could but her right in the thick of it if she can duplicate or improve off that race and she does have win over the surface.

Still, I'm not going out on a limb here and will stick with and probably not play the chalk with

4 Beautician
5 She Be Wild
3 Negligee

The G3 Illinois Derby is easily the least prestigious of the 3 Derby preps the other two being the Wood Memorial and the Santa Anita Derby, but it may be the most interesting of the three.

On a track that favors speed and the rail and a field which is generally lacking in flashy early speed, American Lion could not have drawn better breaking from the rail gate. But...I am looking for the combo of Prado and Dutrow on board the stalker Yawanna Twist to be first under the wire. A conviction which will grow even stronger should Awesome Act flatter the top choice 30 minutes earlier in the Wood.

Yawanna Twist has the best figures of all contenders. The fact is his worst lifetime figure is equal to the best of any other in the race excepting Backtalk. Twisty has the tactical ability to stay close to American Lion and possibly Boulder Creek.

American Lion has to be at least the 2nd choice with all the favoring factors the Weasel see's for him in this race. I expect to see him on the lead early, so he won't have to worry about having dirt kicked in his face.

Turf Melody will have to move forward out of the Gotham to beat Gotham runner up Yawanna Twist, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. Turf Melody looks to be a horse on the improve, and 3 year olds can make quantum leaps forward this time of year. You might be able to get a square price on this contender

Backtalk has the look of one of those horses who is fierce in the morning and a asleep when the money is on the line. He did win his last, but notice his figures decline as the distance increases. The Weasel would be surprised to see this one in the Winner's Circle.

4. Yawanna Twist
1. American Lion
5. Turf Melody

It is easy to look at the Wood and think it is a 2 horse race between Eskendereya and Awesome Act. But Ramon Dominquez has been red hot at the Big A and Schoolyard Dreams may have what it takes and the motivation to pull off the upset for trainer Derek Ryan.

Still, Eskendereya dominated the Fountain of Youth field and should have no problem stalking the cheap speed in the race. Gotham winner Awesome Act will bring up the rear early but will have plenty of pace to run at late. Look for Awesome Act to be chasing down either Eskendereya or Schoolyard Dreams in the stretch with one set of backers praying for the wire while the other set encourages Julien Leparoux to get into that 2 horse.

I have to mention Jackson Bend. He's a small horse with a large heart. I just don't think he can get the distance at this level and would like to see him returned to sprinting once the Derby dreams are finally dashed. The one classic race he may do well in is the Preakness due to the tight turns which can favor a smaller horse.

3. Eskendereya
2. Awesome Act
4. Schoolyard Dreams

At last there is the Santa Anita Derby. Lookin At Lucky is the obvious favorite, his race in the Rebel at Oaklawn was nothing short of amazing. If you missed it, find a replay to watch and you'll understand why Lucky is a top Derby contender. But listening to Bob Baffert in a recent interview, the Weasel has to wonder how well intentioned Lucky is for this race. Bob was all about how the goal was to get Lucky through the race in one piece and set up for the big prize being the KY Derby, of course.

This makes The Weasel want to take a shot at throwing Lucky out of the Winner's Circle and look for alternatives who may want it more here.

If we are going to upset Lucky, The Weasel actually likes two Cali breds to perform the feat. Up until the San Felipe, Caracortado was unbeaten in his career. Sidney's Candy won the race wire to wire. The comment line says Sidney was rated, meaning no pressure on the lead. This time may be different. Who's Up, to Sidney's inside has some early foot and could make Sidney work a little harder for that lead this time around.

Alphie's Bet made a quantum leap forward to win the G3 Sham last out and is another that would benefit from a contentious early pace. So here is the way The Weasel see's this one.

10 Alphie's Bet
6 Caracortado
4 Sidney's Candy

Lookin at Lucky will be there somewhere, maybe even on top. Don't be a chalk eating weasel.

The Weasel plans to watch these races at home courtesy of TVG, HRTV or Twinspires TV if I have to. Tomorrow will be a day at the races, grazing on the excellent buffet of the Ten Palms Restaurant at Gulfstream Park with the beautiful Mrs. Weasel.

Speaking of GP. Look for these jockeys to get hot now that the big guns have moved north. Paco Lopez, Joe Bravo (as long as he stays), Manoel Cruz, Luis Saez, Jose Lezcano, and, of course, Elvis Trujillo.

I'm Off!

I'm Back

2010-03-29T15:42:00.000-07:00

So sorry to have been away so long. Could make up alot of excuses and they'd all be true. The simple fact is that the muse had left me. Now I'm feeling more a-mused.

As much as I like to complain about how Gulfstream Park management does everything on the cheap, and they do, I guess I have to give them a little credit for Florida Derby day.

Gulfsteam Park was slammed. They do not give attendance or handle figures, but in speaking with a worker at the track I learned the crowd was estimated to be about 23,000. Betting lines were 10 minutes long. I was told that the park had installed an extral 150 betting machines for the occassion. Again, trying to do it on the cheap. Really, how many people who go to the track once or twice a year for the big days go anywhere near the betting machines?

I prefer the machines, but on days like Fl. Derby day, there's no way. It will always be my luck to wind up behind some 0.10 cent super player entering every possible combo one at a time. Of course, most times that will be my good luck.

To the track's credit they did extend the time between races once they realized the size of the crowd which had showed up on that perfect South Florida day. One last thing I learned from the track worker is that there are plans to build a parking garage and extend the grandstand down the north side of the main building all the way down to the beginning of the stretch. It won't be this year or the next, but maybe in a couple of years, we can once again contemplate the possibility of the Breeder's Cup returning to Florida.

Had the muse had struck me sooner, my once loyal readers would've known my top pick for the race was the 29-1 Pleasant Prince. Yes it is true. Talk about bad beats! I figured the race had alot of early speed in it with most of it to the outside and didn't set up well for the favorite, Rule. I looked to the inside for likely horses to come from off the pace and settled on the Wesley Ward trained Pleasant Prince. Ice Box was certainly a contender as an off the pace contender, but it is well known that the outside posts don't do well at the 9 furlong distance. The 12 hole is nearly impossible except for Big Brown. Unfortunately for me, Ice Box was breaking from the 8th gate.

I have watched that race over and over and am still not convinced I lost. I'm still looking for the photo if anyone can direct me. That is the only way I will be convinced.

I have read that we (TBA that is) are now associating ourselves with Thorofan. This is a move the Weasel definitely is in favor of being a charter member of the Thorofan organization. So far, I can't see how my dues to Thorofan have done anything than help finance cocktail parties for the Saratoga chapter, but hope springs eternal that something good will eventually come out the organization.

The Horseplayer's Association of North America seems to have lost some momentum this year although I do remember they are having a day at Keeneland for members to assemble. If they send me another E-Mail telling me when it is, I'll let you know. That is an organization the Weasel certainly endorses. I hope the founders have not burned out. They tried very hard to make a difference last year. But you know, organizing horse player has got to be alot like herding cats.

That's it for now. Hopefully, I'll get some momentum of my own going and find another 18-1 Bullsbay or 29-1 Pleasant Prince for you to lay some dough on and cheer for.

I'm Off

Florida Million 2009

2009-11-14T05:32:00.000-08:00

Today's the day Calder Casino and Race Course honors the Florida Thoroughbred Industry with a Saturday card featuring 8 stakes races for Florida bred horses with a total purse of $1,000,000.

Trainer Marty Wolfson must be expecting a big day as he has brought in Julien Leparoux to ride all of his entries including It's a Bird in the feature race.

The weather is perfectly sunny without a cloud in the sky meaning the races meant to be run on turf will be run on turf.

Selections and odds for today's card follow

Race 1: 1 mile 70 yards Md12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old

#1 Nistelrooy of Joy 6/5--9-5
#10 Sea Hag 7/2--5/1
#7 Cruise Connection 6/1--9/1

Race 2: 5 furlongs (turf) Opt. Clm 16k/N1X for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up

#7 Runaway Heart 8/5--5/2
#4 Determined Gal 3/1--9/2
#9 French Dip 9/2--7/1

Race 3: 6 furlongs Clm 6250 for Fillies and Mares 3 year olds and up

#6 Unexpected Blessing 2/1--3/1
#4 Blushing Tiger 3/1--9/2
#5 Joan's Royal Dawn 7/2--5/1

Race 4: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The John Franks Juvenile Fillies Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds

#10 D'lucci Girl 2/1--3/1
#2 Winsocki 5/2--4/1
#8 Suzanne 4/1--6/1

Race 5: 7 furlongs, The Jack Prince Juvenile 150k 2 year old registered Florida Breds

#4 Mr. Green 5/2--4/1
#7 Good To Be Seen 3/1--9/2
#6 Gesu 6/1--9/1
#1 Manny Who 6/1--9/1

Race 6: 7 furlongs, The Joe O'Farrell Juvenile 150k for Filly 2 year old registered Florida Breds

#7 Sweetlalabye 3/1--9/2
#2 Rosebud's Ridge 7/2--5/1
#4 Joanie's Catch 9/2--7/1
#1 Winey Taylor 5/1--8/1

Race 7: 8.5 furlongs (turf) The Arthur I. Appleton Juvenile Turf 100k for 2 year old registered Florida Breds

#3 Family Foundation 1/1--3/2
#9 Show the Way J 5/2--4/1

Race 8: 6 furlongs The Jack Dudley Sprint Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds

#8 Pashito the Che 1/1--3/1
#6 Little Nick 5/2--4/1

Race 9: 8.5 furlongs The Elmer Heubeck Distaff Handicap 200k for Fillies and Mares 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds

#6 Jessica Is Back 6/5--9/5
#9 Sweet Repent 4/1--6/1
#5 Even Road 5/1--8/1

Race 10: 9 furlongs (turf) The Bonnie Heath Turf Cup Handicap 150k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds

#8 Soldier's Dancer 6/5--9/5
#3 Pickapocket 4/1--6/1
#5 Fearless Eagle 5/1--8/1

Race 11: 9 furlongs The Carl G. Rose Classic Handicap 200k for 3 year old and up registered Florida Breds

#3 It's a Bird 6/5--9/5
#5 Dream Maestro 7/2--5/1
#7 Temo's Dream 6/1--9/1

Check out http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis of this race.

Race 12: 7 furlongs clm5000 for 3 year olds and up

#9 Tebow Go 8/5---5/2
#6 Diesel Power 3/1--9/2
#5 Sir Oso 9/2--7-1

The late pick 4 (races 7-10) looks very hittable which means no big payoff, but only a small investment required. I'm going to take a shot at hitting it cold with all my top picks. If you want spread out just a little then single the top choices in races 7 and 8 and the three contenders for 9 and 10 for only a $9 investment.

I'm Off

Breeders' Cup Aftermath and Fair Grounds Trainer Angle

2009-11-10T14:56:00.001-08:00

Well the cup has come and gone. As always, I am left breathless by these amazingly competitive races. I've got to start saving my pennies now so the I can attend next year's edition live at Churchill Downs.

Didn't do to bad as a handicapper on the Friday card as several top picks came home first including the 9.8-1 Tapitsfly in the Juvenile Fillies Turf.

Had some straight winners on Saturday too, but tried to hard to find the upsets rather than let them come naturally. Have to remember that the game is not about picking winners but finding the overlay. I found that overlay in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile where #3 contender Furthest Land brought home the bacon at a juicy 21.3-1. Find one of those and your day is made. I hope you played it

Hey if the Weasel helped you prosper in any way during the Cup, show him some love and let him know.

But enough about me. The Fair Grounds has reopened for the '09-'10 season. The Weasel loves the Fair Grounds. On the opening Saturday the Weasel found Air Combat going off at 15.6-1 in the first race and Weekend Pass @ 6.1-1 in the 5th. Sweet!!

Anyone who plays Calder Race Course has to be able to deal with wet weather as Summer is the rainy season here in sunny South Florida. The management tries to schedule races for the turf, but the reality is that many if not most of them are washed off onto the main track. Thus, it has finally occurred to the thick-headed Weasel that perhaps there are some trainers laying in wait for those "off the turf" races entering horses who have never done anything more than eat a blade of grass in the expectation of getting to run on the main track.

Then it occurs to the Weasel that if trainers do, indeed, enter horses into turf races actually intending to run them only if the race comes onto the main track, that some may be better at it than others. Ya think? If one were to go back through the results chart, one may be able to discern which trainers are lurking for "off the turf" races and which are just out for the exercise. Finally, it occurs to the Weasel that this is a novel angle that he has never read of anywhere before, so perhaps there may be an edge to be found here.

Well it's too late for Calder as the rainy season has past. However, thought the Weasel, the Fair Grounds sees it's fair share of rainy weather over the Winter. Perhaps we can use this angle for the upcoming meet. And so I bring to you the results of my hours of research for your perusal and, hopefully, profit.

I went through each day's chart for the '08-'09 season looking for races that were taken off the turf. The following spreadsheet insert shows the top trainers in terms of ROI. For, after all it is ROI that counts.

First let me show you the top "off the turf" trainers.

Granted, are number of trainers that do not have a significant number of races. However, surprising to me is the prescence of Bill Mott on the list. Mr. Mott being a well-known, successful trainer, I figured his entries would be over bet. This not the case. Mott has 5 wins in 16 off turf races for a 31% success rate and 21 cents earned for every federal reserve note (FRN) laid. Caveat about Mott, catch him early in the season as his win rate dropped as the season progressed. I expect as the weather warms up North so goes Mott's better horses.

But what I'm really looking for are those lesser known trainrs with positive results i.e. Richard Scherer at 98 cents per FRN. Patrick Mouton at 68 cents per FRN.

Be careful with Steve Asmussen. Winner of 6 out of 20 for a 30% hit rate, you take a slow road to the poor house losing 42 cent per FRN as his entries are typically underlaid at Fair Grounds. Other notable trainers to avoid Tom Amoss, Alvin Sider, Steve Margolis, Keith Bourgeois, Bret Calhoun, Sam Breaux, Mark Casse, Mark Frostad and a horde of others.

The list of trainers with negative ROI's and flat out no "off turf" wins is far longer than the short list above. When confronting races off the turf stick with Mott (early), Mouton, Scherer (Richard, not Merrill), and Stall and let's make some cash.

Check out my last entry (maybe they'll ask me back again some time) at www.casetherace.com this Saturday. Just missed with a live firster last out. Maybe I'll get lucky this time.

I'm Off

Breeders' Cup Eve

2009-11-05T11:00:00.000-08:00

Twas the day before the cup,
and all through the house
the Weasel was searching
for some picks to serve up.

As promised, I have returned to you on the eve of the Breeders' Cup and am prepared to give you my selections for this weekends championship races.

One thing is for sure, there is no shortage of opinions on these races. If you are interested in a consensus of Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance choices then follow this link http://www.tbablogs.com/BCPicks.php .

Due to the sheer number of races, commentary will be minimal to non-existant. If you want reasons, there are plenty willing to offer reasons for their opinions.

As a reminder, since I haven't mentioned this in a while, the top pick will not necessarily be the one to play. We want to play overlays. Many times this will mean playing against the top pick. I have provided my own odds levels for each selection. The first odds are what I consider to be fair odds. The second set will be the minimum odds you need to play the selection.

Friday's Races

The Breeders' Cup Marathon

#6 Mastery : 2/1---3/1
#5 Father Time: 9/2---7/1
#3 Nite Light: 5/1---8/1
#4 Cloudy's Knight: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
#10 Tapitsfly: 3/1---9/2
#7 House of Grace: 7/2---5/1
#1 Potosina: 9/2---7/1
#4 Rose Catherine 5/1---8/1

The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

#3 Blind Luck: 2/1---3/1
#10 Negligee: 9/2---7/1
#7 Devil May Care: 5/1---8/1
#8 She Be Wild: 6/1---9/1

The Emirates Airline Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#2 Forever Together: 3/1---9/2
#4 Magical Fantasy: 7/2---5/1
#6 Midday: 9/2---7/1
#3 Rutherienne: 5/1---8/1

The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

#7 Informed Decision: 5/2---4/1
#9 Ventura: 3/1---9/2
#2 Sara Louise: 6/1---9/1
#8 Seventh Street: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Ladies Classic

#7 Music Note: 2/1---3/1
#1 Careless Jewel: 2/1---3/1
#2 Life Is Sweet: 6/1---9/1

Saturday's Races

The Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

#4 Pounced: 2/1---3/1
#3 Codoy: 9/2---7/1
#11 Interactif: 5/1---8/1
#10 Becky's Kitten: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

#7 Gotta Have Her: 3/1---9/2
#6 Cannonball: 7/2---5/1
#3 California Flag: 9/2---7/1
#10 Canadian Ballet: 5/1---8/1

The Sentient Jet Breeders' Cup Sprint

#8 Captain Candyman Can: 7/2---5/1
#1 Zensational: 7/2---5/1
#3 Fatal Bullet: 9/2---7/1
#5 Gayego: 9/2--- 7/1

The Grey Goose Breeders' Cup Juvenile

#6 Pulsion: 3/1---9/2
#4 Noble's Promise: 7/2---5/1
#8 Esdendereya: 9/2---7/1
#9 Aikenite: 6/1---9/1

The TVG Breeders' Cup Mile

#4 Delegator: 2/1---3/1
#1 Court Vision: 9/2---7/1
#3 Cowboy Cal: 5/1---7/1
#2 Whatsthescript: 6/1---9/1

The Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

#1 Mastercraftman: 2/1---3/1
#4 Bullsbay: 9/2---7/1
#2 Furthest Land: 5/1---8/1
#5 Neko Bay: 6/1---9/1

The Emirate Airlines Breeders' Cup Turf

#6 Presious Passion: 3/1---9/2
#2 Conduit: 7/2---5/1
#5 Dar Re Mi: 9/2---7/1
#7 Spanish Moon: 5/1---8/1

The Breeders' Cup Classic

#2 Colonel John: 3/1---9/2
#8 Einstein: 7/2---5/1
#4 Zenyatta: 4/1---6/1
#7 Gio Ponti: 6/1---9/1

Hey! Check out my full analysis of Saturday's race 10 from Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. Also you will find a brief analysis of the Ladies Classic and the Classic. Note, I change my mind on the Classic after I had sent in my picks to Case the Race. I have heard really good things about Rip Van Winkle. Then I hear is very washed out after an easy gallop at Santa Anita and has a chronic foot problem to boot. I don't know how the surface change will affect his foot. I will take a good look at him in the post parade, at least as good as I am able. If I like what I see, I may change my mind again.

Good Luck

Waiting For The Cup

2009-10-31T05:33:00.000-07:00

I don't really feel like doing the Public Handicapper races today. Does that make me a bad person? The week has been full. I really haven't had the time to get into them and do them justice. As I've said before, better not to do them at all than to be half-assed about it.

I'll make it up to you, I promise. For starters, I have the entire 13 race CRC card scoped out for you. The weather is expected to be sunny and warm so all the races scheduled for turf should actually make it to the sod today.

In addition, I will bring selections for all the Breeder's Cup races as I get them. I actually have the early entries now, but I can't see wasting all the ink, paper, and time putting any effort into them until the entries have been finalized and the post positions drawn. I think that happens on Tuesday, so I'll be working all day Wednesday and probably most of Thursday poring over racing forms and results charts.

My general game plan for the big event will be to play CRC on both days as I normally would and try to be selective and pick my spots with the Cup races. We'll see if I can resist the temptation to plunge my brains out on each race.

Reminder that my stint as a guest handicapper at http://www.casetherace.com/ continues this week with a full analysis of today's race 8 at CRC.

Calder Race Track Selections for October 31.

Race 1: 1 mile Clm6250N2L for fillies and mares 3 years old and up

#7 Cynthia's Secret
#1 Caveat Cat
#8 Dibs On Debbie
#3 Honey Of A Dream

Race 2: 6.5 fur. Clm16000N2L fillies 2 years old

#2 Grand Decision
#1 Forgiven
#3 She's A Mambo
#5 Full N Sassy

Race 3: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for fillies 2 years old

#3 Golden Humor
#2b Kate's Holiday
#1a Super Girlie
#7 Come Sunday

Race 4: 7.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 21k for fillies 3, 4, and 5 years old

#7 Lady Zeig
#5 Manerbe
#8 Two Cheers
#6 Starland Queen

Race 5: 6.5 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for 3 years old and up

#6 Starship Valor
#8 Caixa Eletronica
#3 Christmas Parade

Race 6: 5 fur. MdClm 12500 for fillies and mares 3, 4, and 5 years old

#9 High Dollar Escort
#10 My Espresso
#12 Savannah Sings

Race 7: 8.5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 years old

#5 Big Joey
#7 Lion Thunder
#11 Mr. Postman
#10 Bold Tiger

Race 8: 7 fur. Clm10000b 3 years old and 4 years old and upward which have never won three races

#5 Brandy Bai
#4 Girl Band
#1 One Proud Cat
#3 My Best China

See http://www.casetherace.com/ for full analysis

Race 9: 5 fur. (Turf) Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds

#5 Sliding In
#3 More Drama
#7 Tiger Willie
#2 Fortunate Rooster

Race 10: 5.5 fur. Clm12500N2L for 2 year olds

#3 My Good Friend
#8 Mega Party
#4 Nothing's Perfect
#6 By Your Side

Pick 4 tickets for races 7-10 brought to you by DRF's Ticketmaker and the Chalk Eating Weasel

1. 5/5/5/3 times 2
2. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/3
3. 5/5/3,7/3
4. 5/5/5/4,6,8
5. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/3,7/3
6. 2,4,7,10,11,14/5/5/4,6,8
7. 5/5/3,7/4,6,8
8. 5/5/2/3

Total cost $25.00 for a .50 base bet

Race 11: 1 mile(Turf) Alw 21700N1X for 3 year olds and upward

#8 Regis
#1 Bandit Prince
#11 Caravel
#3 Sky Gate

Race 12: 6 fur. Starter Alw 16000 for fillies and mares 3 years old and upward.

#2 Wyatt's Women
#7 Margaret Smile
#5 Meadow Touch
#8 Suave Royalty

Race 13: 1 mile Md.Sp.Wt. 23k for 2 year olds

#5 Forty Nine Acres
#1 Taxes Taxes Taxes
#4 Hellen's Cause
#9 Backstage Lounge

That's all for today. Good Luck and enjoy the races

Making the Case

2009-10-24T04:36:00.000-07:00

Here it is 7:30 in the morning and I'm looking out the window to the south watching the morning clouds roll in off the ocean and hoping they aren't bring any rain for the turf course at Calder today.

Today I get to bring you 4 more races from the Public Handicappers contest so sit back, relax, and the Weasel take you through some nice competitive racing.

The first race comes from Laurel Park in Maryland. Its the 9th race on the card, The Frank J. DeFrancis Memorial Dash a Grade 1 affair contested at 6 furlongs for 3 year olds and upward.

Vineyard Haven, the DQ'd runner up to Capt Candyman Can in the King's Bishop at Saratoga is the headliner for this race, but he will not be alone in this competitive field of 9.

The race shapes up with a lot of front running types to be vying for the early lead. If this becomes the story of this race then the set up will be perfect for the horse that can stalk from off the pace and we have such a horse in this field in #3 Ravalo.

Stalk and pounce is the modus operandi for Ravalo, and he is capable of running the triple digit figure that will be required to win this race making him the top choice over the likely favorite Vineyard Haven.

Of course, it may be the Vineyard Haven is just too good for the field. The 3 year old is working well and showing no ill effects from its shoving match with Capt Candyman Can back in August. Alan Garcia will get the call. The Godolphin Racing entry will be tough to beat.

The #6 horse, Peace Chant, is another that may benefit if the early pace is too hectic. Peace Chant is a lightly raced 6 year old with only 15 starts indicating that ol' PC has been spending a lot of time on the disabled list. In his last, the Forego-G1, Peace Chant was making a strong late bid when he got cut off and lost the big mo. The DRF comment box notes that although Peace Chant primarily raced on the West Coast, all four of his wins have come on dirt. Looks like he has a puncher's chance in this one to me.

Finally #4 Fleet Valid is one that can sit close to the early leaders and take over when the time is right. Fleet Valid has won 4 in a row at Monmouth including 2 non graded stakes events. He is another contender that is capable of posting triple digit Beyer's in this race.

So while Vineyard Haven may be the one to beat in this race, don't look for the rest of the field to roll over for him. Below are the selections in order of preference.

#3 Ravalo

#1 Vineyard Haven

#6 Peace Chant

#4 Fleet Valid

For the 9th race at Keeneland, The Lexus Raven Run G2. I just have to throw my hands up and say pick 'em. There are 16 entered, 14 will run, and it is possible to make a case for just about all of them. I'm going to have to stick with the obvious in this one.

Both the #8 Flashing and #4 Pretty Prolific are coming out of key races, so I am making them tepid 1,2 favorites here. The horse I will probably play and key exotics around will be my 3rd choice #5 Jardin.

Jardin is coming 3rd back off a layoff and trainer Thomas Albertrani is 35% with a +ROI in the last 2 years with this angle. Since I think Jardin will be something better than 9-5 in this field, I will at least have the satisfaction of having a sound statistical overlay to play. Of course in this large a field, any horse is likely to offer a reasonable price.

Finally the 4th choice will be #11 Sky Haven who is a proven syn runner for Asmussen with some nice Beyer's and Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard.

This looks like a great trifecta opportunity if you can somehow narrow the bet size down to something manageable.

The selections are

8. Flashing

4. Pretty Prolific

5. Jardin

11 Sky Haven

At 8:53 am This just in. Raining at Calder.

The 9th at Belmont is the 32nd running of The Hudson for State breds 3 and up

Finally, a race that isn't a real head scratcher

Although a New York bred, #1 Driven By Success has had some success racing in open graded company and has been dominant against the state breds making him an easy top choice.

The one NY bred that has recently had some luck against DBS is #11 Law Enforcement. Don't worry about his last in the Forego. I expect he will come back with some run in this easier spot.

The 3rd choice, #4 Legal Consent, broke poorly last out. However, he has earned a lot of money racing against his fellow state breds and has an affinity for the track and the distance.

After these 3 its anybody's guess in this race although, I suppose you could consider #9 Be Bullish who benefitted from Legal Consent's problems last out. Still, I figure Driven By Success will be the one to beat here.

1. Driven By Success

11. Law Enforcement

4. Legal Consent

9. Be Bullish

Finally, another contest for state-breds from Belmont Park the 1oth race is the 24th running of The Empire Classic for 3 and up.

This is the race Michael Maker is finally going to win one for the Weasel. There is no doubt in my mind that Future Prospect is the best bet of the 4 races if you wish to cash a ticket. That said if Future Prospect is a paltry 1-2 as he was last out, I will pass the race.

The 2nd choice is the #5 Haynesfield coming off a good off the bench effort last out he should move forward off of that race for Steve Asmussen and rider Ramon Dominguez

The 3rd choice goes to #2 Slevin. Coming 3rd off the layoff he has had 2 strong efforts and just needs a little luck here to make his first stakes score.

Finally the 4th choice will the #4 Weathered. Weathered is appreciated for his game efforts in open company which is always a plus when looking at state bred restricted races such as this one. A 50% winner, Weathered knows how to find the wire first and would not be a big surprise.

The choices

#6 Future Prospect

#5 Haynesfield

#2 Slevin

#4 Weathered.

As always, when looking at these selections, one should take into account the odds on each horse and perhaps play or key on the one that seems to offer the most value to you. If one of these picks has a particularly long price, take a good look at the horse. It is possible that I am just off-base with the selection. It is also possible that I have seen something others have missed. That is the decision you must take responsibility for.

Hey!!! Check out my selection for the 12th race for Calder Race Course today. Hopefully it will stay on the grass, but since most of the runners are more experienced on the main track, it may not make all that much difference. To check out my selection visit http://www.casetherace.com/ The analysis is really there today, I checked it out myself.

As always Good Luck with your selections in todays racing and enjoy the races.

Festival of the Sun

2009-10-17T05:21:00.000-07:00

As I write this from my Florida room a mere few minutes from Calder Race Course the skies are sunny with the temperature at 77o. Contrast to Toronto where the temperature is a chilly 34 with Rain/Snow showers forecast.

I actually have the Nearctic and Candian International Races handicapped, but considering the current conditions, I feel that all that work is out the window into the bright Florida sunshine now. Instead, I will bring you the 11th race from Calder, the G3 Spendabuck Hcp and the Senator Ken Maddy Hdcp (G3) from Santa Anita.

As a bonus, to make up for the rainy/snowy Woodbine race, I will give you my stakes picks for the other Calder stakes on this big South Florida Racing day.

Now for race 11 from CRC

With the exception of Lady Shatzi who is making her North American debut from Peru, the horses running in this race are old friends who have frequently shared the same track.

Of this group, #9 Motovato, trained by Marty Wolfson and ridden by Eddie Castro is clearly the class of the field as the winner of 2 of the last 3 stakes he has run at Calder including a 2nd place finish behind the late Finallymadeit in the G3 Memorial Day Hdcp. I do have a race where I will try to beat Wolfson, just not this one.

The 2nd choice #10 Mambo Meister has spent most of the Summer running on grass but has also shown ability on dirt. Therefore, the surface switch should be of no consequence. Mambo Meister is a capable 4 year old who gets leading rider Manoel Cruz in the irons. Manny is definitely better on dirt than grass (a little CRC hint: I nearly always consider Cruz a bet against on turf). Mambo's last 3 have all been graded affairs up at Saratoga and Monmouth so he will definitely be feeling the class relief in this field.

The #4 Dream Maestro is getting little respect from the morning line maker at 12-1 and the DRF analysts not even getting a nod for 3rd position on the selection sheet. However the Maestro has run some good races and always seems to be hanging around in the money at the end. It may be true that Dream Maestro suffers a bit of seconditis with 9 places in 22 tries, but I don't see how you can completely discount this consistent contender. I wouldn't play him at 2-1 but 12-1 could be another story.

Finally the 4th choice is the #1 Imawildandcrazyguy who won on the slop last out. Really, this is more of a nod to the abilities of Eibar Coa who seems to dominate when he runs at Calder rather than the ability of this one time KY Derby entrant. However, Imawildandcrazyguy exhibits a lot of back class with winnings of $626,745 easily out distancing the other contenders in the field. Play only at a large price.

#9 Motovato
#10 Mambo Meister
#4 Dream Maestro
#1 Imawildandcrazyguy

Off to The Oak Tree at Santa Anita and the SKMaddyH at 6.5f.

The top choice #2 Gotta Have Her has been in the money for her last 8 and 9 of her last 10. She is 3 for 3 at this distance and has 4 for 8 winners at Santa Anita including a G2 win in the Palomar Hdcp last out. Just flat out looks like the one to beat to me.

Maybe #4 Reba Is Tops can be the one to do it. She probably needed her last, finishing 2nd in the Daisycutter at Del Mar and should move forward this time out. She will be tough to beat if she does. Joe Talamo gets the call. Joe and Reba have been a potent combo since teaming up 4 races ago with 2 firsts and 2 seconds. I expect more of the same here.

#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle (ooh that is going to make the spell checker go nuts) is the 3rd choice. She is the defending champ and is showing no indication in her recent outings of slowing down. Other than she appears to be in top form at the moment, what more is there to say here.

#5 Tuscan Evening rounds out the contender list in this top field as she returns to a distance that is certainly more to her liking. Fagettabout her last effort at 9 furlongs. This race is where she belongs.

Honestly, there is not much to choose from between these 4. If you want my advice I'd play whichever of the 4 has the longest odds and be very happy about my chances of winning

#2 Gotta Have Her
#4 Reba Is Tops
#6 Queen Ofthe Catsle
#5 Tuscan Evening

Without comment here are my other Stakes pick for CRC today

Race 6 The Birdonthewire for 2 yo's 5.5 f

#8 Hear Ye Hear Ye
#5 Mr. Green
#7 Peace At Dawn
#3 Simplifying

Although I haven't been able to find it yet, you should be able to view my full analysis of this race at www.casetherace.com.

Race 7 The Florida Stallion My Dear Girl 400k for 2 yo fillies

#4 Winsockie
#6 Sweetlalabye
#1 Joanie's Catch
#5 Tillie The Tigress

Race 8 The Calder Oaks for 3yo fillies 75k

#6 Providanza
#3 Royal Card
#4 Fire Water

Race 9 The Florida Stallion In Reality for 2 yo's 400k

#6 Jackson Bend
#3 Thank U Philippe
#4 Bim Bam
#8 Allez Reef

Race 10 The Calder Derby(G3) for 3yo's 100k

#3 Sal the Barber (My pick 4 single)
#6 Grand Cash
#2 Livingston Street
#9 Pound Foolish

Race 12 The Cassidy for fillies, 2yo's 75k

#2 Sweet Like Sugar
#7 Rosebud's Ridge
#1 Lavender's Spirit
#6 Slavic Princess

Finally, just in case you're interested, my picks for the two races from Woodbine before I became aware of the conditions

Race 8 The Nearctic (G2)

#11 Jungle Wave
#1 Field Commission
#9 Hero's Reward
#4 Karakorum Elektra

Race 10 The Pattison Canadian International (G1)

#4 Just As Well
#7 Juke Box Jury
#3 Quijano
#8 Spice Route

That's it for this week. Enjoy the racing and Good Luck

Breeder's Cup Scramble

2009-10-10T06:54:00.000-07:00

Happy to be back in the saddle this week. Sorry about lack of posts last two weekends but sometimes personal and professional obligations just get in the way. I'd rather not do something at all than do it half-assed. After all, we've all got to have priorities.

Realistically, today is the last weekend for Breeder's Cup entries and wannabes to show their stuff, get tuned up for the big races, or just plain find out if they can run with the big dogs. With that thought in mind, Public Handicapper has 2 races from Keeneland and 2 from Santa Anita all of which have implications for the upcoming Breeder's Cup races now less than a month away.

The first race open for discussion is race 8 from Keeneland, The Dixiana Breeders' Futurity for 2 year olds contested at a mile and sixteenth.

I love 2 year old racing, which is a good thing as I get my fair share of it here in South Florida over the summer. Now we've moved from those ridiculous 2f affairs of early April to some real racing distances.

Two year olds are still learning to race and one thing I like to look for as the babies stretch out is those that look as if they get it rather than those which just break from the gate running all out until they can't go no more.

One horse in this race which certainly meets the aforementioned criterion is the #2 Backtalk trained by Thomas Amoss. Back Talk is already a multiple graded stakes winner and I expect him to bounce back after a wide trip in the Hopeful Stakes last out.

One knock against Backtalk we be how well he will take to the surface change. However the Oct. 5 6f work out at a respectable 1:12 4/5 tells me that the surface will not be an issue.

The 2nd choice for this race has yet to break his maiden. I suppose you could say he's a multiple graded stakes runner up. Those Beyer's figures look really nice and Lookin At Lucky has done nothing but flatter #7 Make Music for Me by winning the G1 Norfolk last Sunday at Santa Anita. Make Music for Me is another 2 yo that has shown some ability to hold his powder. Now if he can just get up to the line in time we may see some real fireworks.

The 3rd choice has merely won a maiden race at Saratoga and has to start from the outside post to boot. But if anyone can figure out a way to overcome a race course obstacle it will be Julien Leparoux on board #14 Stately Victor. Stately Victor is trained by Michael Maker.

Maker is a trainer that doesn't get as much press as others. He simply goes quietly about his business winning at a 25% clip year after year.

Stately Victor scored his maiden win at today's distance over the Saratoga grass posting an 80 Beyer in the process. Word is that good turf form usually translates well to poly form so the surface switch is not nearly as much a concern as the post. Look for Stately Victor at least somewhere underneath in the exotics if not in the winner's circle.

The fourth choice is the undefeated #1 Dixie Band. One reason Wayne Catalano is such a winner is he has a knack for placing his charges in races they can win, and Dixie Band has been no exception.

If there is any way to knock an unbeaten horse, the DRF has tried to do so in their closer look comment that the fillies ran faster in a later race on the same card as his last outing. You may take the comment for what its worth. Last time I looked there weren't any fillies running in the race and fillies seem to have been making it a habit of beating their brethren lately.

Another horse that may be live here, but I don't like the short break (14 days) is #6 Noble's Promise.

Top Choices

#2 Backtalk
#7 Make Music for Me
#14 Stately Victor
#1 Dixie Band

The next race to look at is...the next race at Keeneland or race 9 The Shadwell Turf Mile (G1).

As of this writing the Turf Course is soft and #1 Yorktown and #3 Wise River are scratched.

The soft going will be right up the top choice's alley the #2 Mr. Sidney. Mr. Sidney is 4 for 4 at this distance. Forget about the Arlington Million. Mr. Sidney was out of his element there. Mr. Sidney has won the G1 Maker's Mark Mile here at Keeneland and the G2 Firecracker at Churchill Downs over yielding courses so he definitely has the credentials for win here.

However, Mr Sidney is not a "stone cold lock" in here because there is another horse running that has had a terrific Summer. Long time readers of the report may recall the hunch play from Gulfstream Park way back at the beginning of the year with Justenuffhumor. Well, it turns out you could've ridden that hunch all year long as Justenuffhumor has done nothing but get better and win since January. Now he returns to the site of his only defeat.

Justenuffhumor has improved his Beyer every time he has raced (54, 86, 91, 94, 99, 103, 106). This streak can't go on forever. Sooner or later he has to have traffic problems, not like a surface, or just plain have an off day. I'm going to bet that today is that day. Still, he remains the 2nd choice #7 Justenuffhumor.

The third choice is no stranger to winning on soft grass. #5 Battle of Hastings has had a pretty good Summer himself and surprisingly to me is not a bad miler in his own right although I still believe that more distance suits him better.

Finally the fourth choice is strictly an angle play. #9 Court Vision is making his first start for Richard Dutrow. You can think what you like about Dick, but whether he does it honestly or not, horses that start first time out for him win 30% of the time. So don't ignore this one.

Choices
#2 Mr. Sidney
#7 Justenuffhumor
#5 Battle of Hastings
#9 Court Vision

Now moving on to the 6th race at Santa Anita the 24th running of The Oak Tree Mile (G2).

The top choice for this race has the tactical speed needed to either go to the lead or sit just of the pace as tactics dictate, is 2 for 2 at the distance and is coming out of two tough Saratoga races against 3 yo phenom Justenuffhumor. #9 Cowboy Cal gets the call as the top choice here. Garrett Gomez gets the call and with the recent form Cowboy Cal has been showing I think he is going to be tough to beat in here.

There are a few others that might get to the wire first and the 2nd choice for that honor would be #4 Global Hunter. Global Hunter turns back to a better distance after running 8th in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar. Looked to me like he never really got into that race. I prefer to look at the two races sandwiched in between the two 10 furlong debacles to get a better idea of the Hunter's ability at a mile. Global Hunter can win this race and may give a decent price in the process.

Another kinda sneaky horse in here is the #10 Whatsthescript coming in fresh for John Sadler who is 25% with a +ROI for horses off for 61-180 days. In case you think this may be too tough a spot to comeback in I will point out that Whatsthescript finished 3rd behind Goldikova and Kip Deville in last year's BC Mile after a similar layoff. Whatsthescript is 4 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 on the SA turf and should feel right at home here.

Finally I just have to throw in a tepid 4th choice here, #7 Monterrey Jazz. Monterrey Jazz clearly did not take to the Del Mar turf after a good Hollywood meet. In addition, the Winter Santa Anita meet was nothing to write home about either. However, MJ has run well here in the past and gets a positive jockey change in the person of Hall of Famer Mike Smith. Its a long shot and chances are MJ will run out of gas again, but then again...

Choices

#9 Cowboy Cal
#4 Global Hunter
#10 Whatsthescript
#7 Monterrey Jazz

Ok, I'm running out of steam here, good thing there is only one more to go. The 7th race from Santa Anita The Goodwood (G1) for 3 and up

I love it when the connections take a horse out of his element, like running on turf a race before a big one such as this because it helps to darken the form just enough to take less savvy players off him. Such is the case with my top pick here, #2 Tiago.

Tiago comes into this race fresh with only his 2nd race since February. With regular rider Mike Smith on board look for Tiago to be sweeping up wide and late (does Smith know any other way to ride?).

Tiago is 8 times ITM with 4 wins in 8 tries at the distance and has won over 1.5 million at Santa Anita. Look for him to add to that total today.

The 2nd choice is #4 Colonel John who had a terrible trip in the Pacific Classic. Look for the Colonel to improve on that effort with some better luck today.

The question about the 3rd choice #10 Mine That Bird in my mind is whether or not he is legit or merely a flash in the pan. We'll find out a lot about that today. The Bird has been working well over the course and I understand Woolley is happy with the way he has been running.

The Bird also gets reunited with his Derby rider Calvin Borel. However, Cali is a long way from Kentucky and the riding styles on the cushion are not the same as at Churchill. I'm not sure Calvin will make the adjustment.

Finally, I have to throw in Tres Borrachos as the 4th. If there was any other speed in this race, Tres would not get mentioned; however, this is the only horse in this race that has shown any desire to show the way. Joe Talamo knows how to ride so don't be shocked if today is the day Tres Borrachos wires the field.

Choices
#2 Tiago
#4 Colonel John
#10 Mine That Bird
#5 Tres Borrachos

By the way, commencing next week and continuing for a total of 4 weeks I will be a guest commentator for Calder Race Course at www.casetherace.com. I will choose one race on the Saturday card for Calder Race Course and offer my own unique perspective on the race. I'm really looking forward to the opportunity to perhaps shed some light on the racing at my home track.

Until the next post. Good luck

North of the Border

2009-09-20T05:16:00.000-07:00

Not much to write home about regarding yesterday's prognostications from KY Downs. But then, you can't say I didn't warn you. Those races didn't cost me any money. Hope you did better.

Now off to Toronto for the Northern Dancer-G1 and the Woodbine Mile-G1 for 3 and up.

In the Northern Dancer I think #9 Marchfield gets the nod as the 5 yo showing excellent form at this time. Also gets the home field advantage with Mark Casse and Patrich Husbands over some of the invaders from the south.

The 2nd choice is the German-bred #2 Musketier (remember Salve Germania who just got flattered by Rutherienne). Musketier has won at this distance over this very track. Apparently Musketier got caught up in a bit of pace duel in the Sword Dancer. Look for Bejarano to mete out Musketier's speed a little more judiciously.

The 3rd choice is last year's winner #6 Champs Elysees. Last year's Northern Dancer winner has yet to win in 2009 but is coming 3rd off the layoff and should be ready for a big effort. Garrett Gomez comes all the way from Cali for the ride.

The 4th and final contender is #8 Just As Well trying the distance for the first time. You can't ignore any horse on grass with Julien Leparoux in the irons. It doesnt' hurt that Just As Well ran a very good 2nd to Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million last out.

Race 10 The Woodbine Mile

This race is very competitive as one might imagine when $1,000,000 is being contested. Is than American or Canadian, I wonder? Some sort of case can be made for nearly every horse in the race. I wish I could offer some unique insight into this race, but it seems to me that the usual suspects are the standouts here.

#8 Rahy's Attorney is the top pick. Toss out his last race, a mile and 3/8ths is too much for the gelding but cutting back to a mile should be right up his alley. Rahy's Attorney will race forwardly but is not a need to lead type which will serve him well as there are a couple of other potential pace factors in the race.

The 2nd choice, and not far behind the top, is the versatile #5 Bribon. The grade 1 winner loves the distance and showed last out that he hasn't lost anything on the turf. Bribon has won 3 in a row with Alan Garcia in the irons and will be making a late run to make it 4.

The 3rd choice #9 Ventura hasn't run since April but that shouldn't be a problem for the 2008 BC Fillie and Mare Sprint Champ. Ventura has no problem coming off the bench and winning big races. She finished 2nd to Rahy's Attorney in this race last year and comes back to even the score.

The 4th pick is a bit of a stretch here, but a horse for the course can't be ignored. #10 Jungle Wave won the G2 Play King last out at Woodbine and is 3 for 3 over the track. He'll have to step up his game to beat these, but may be worth a flyer at a long price. Certainly one to watch for exotics.

That's it for this week kiddies. Let's hope I do better than I did yesterday.

Good Luck

Turfing It At KY Downs

2009-09-19T04:29:00.000-07:00

Coming to you in two installments this week as the Public Handicapper weekend stakes will involve two race from Woodbine to be run tomorrow.

I'm kind of taking the weekend off this week but must play the Handicapper races. Actually I don't "have" to play them. Just feeling obligated to make selections for as many of the PH races as I can.

Two wrap up last week's action, three out of four ain't too bad. Might've been 4 of 4 if Gozzip Girl could've kept from stumbling over her own feet. However, that, my friends is why you don't play 2 to 5 favorites. Just sit and watch those races.

Unfortunately, the other 3 races turned out to be real chalk fests. I'd rather be 1 for 4 with an 18-1 Bullsbay than 3 for 4 with last weeks results.

Today's races come to us courtesy of Kentucky Downs, a quaint little turf course I really don't know all that much about, so keep that in mind and cut me some slack this week.

The first race is a 6 furlong affair known as the Kentucky Cup Turf Dash for 3 year olds and up. Looking at the course configuration, I would think the outside posts would be at a disadvantage here, but then last year Fort Prado managed to finish 2nd starting from the 9th post. You have to ask yourself did the outside post hinder Fort Prado from winning, enable him to overachieve, or have no real influence on the outcome one way or the other. I don't know the answer to that question.

The top choice for this race is #4 Guam Typhoon. This is strictly an angle play as Guam Typhoon is turning back from 9 furlongs to six after setting the fractions at the longer distance last 2 out at Saratoga. The caveat here is that Guam Typhoon has never raced on grass so some faith that trainer Ian Wilkes knows what he's doing here. Don't be looking for Guam Typhoon to be setting the fractions here. That is not how he has won sprints in the past. I suspect Borel will take him back off the pace and go for a big finish. But then again, I'm not very good at predicting race strategy.

I like the #9 Yankee Injunuity. Toss out his last over a yielding surface. If the footing is firm I don't see how he can miss being a factor in today's race. Be aware that the forecast for Franklin, Ky is for showers. Something to take into consideration as Yankee Injunuity sometimes seems to falter on soft courses.

The third pick is #6 Hold The Salt ridden my the 2nd all time leading wins female jockey Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Hold The Salt is 2 for 2 at the distance and is 2 for 2 at Kentucky Downs including winning last years edition of this very race.

Finally I'll give #7 Just For Keeps a shot here. Michael Maker teams up with Orlando Mojica at a 41% win rate with a positive ROI. Just For Keeps comes off the bench not having a race since April, but Maker excels as a trainer in this category as well. Just For Keeps was very competitive early this year winning his first two starts before fading badly in the Giant's Causeway at Keeneland. If he can regain his early form, he may be the price horse of the day.

The other race for today is the 1 1/2 mile Kentucky Cup Turf-G3 for 3 and up

I found this race to be a real head scratcher so take that under advisement before using anything I say here.

#2 Timeless Fashion is 9 for 5 lifetime and has never finished out of the money. This will be the strongest field this lightly raced 5 year old has faced and wouldn't be surprising at all to me if he goes all the way here

#5 My Happiness is the 2nd choice and seems recently to have been racing well behind better. Calvin Borel is in the driver's seat and maybe the combination of a lesser field and BoRail can push this won to the front at the wire.

#4 Rumor Has It is the 3rd choice on the basis of having won the race last year. That's not much to go on but its all I got in this contentious field. He has been running well lately and there aren't any "great" horses in this race. So, why not a repeat performance?

#12 Deal Making is a lightly raced 4 year old looking to make his first big score. 3 for 8 on the turf he comes 3rd off the layoff for Graham Motion.

Well that's all for Ky Downs. I'll post the Woodbine races a little later today or tomorrow morning. Until then.

Saturday Stakes

2009-09-12T03:29:00.000-07:00

Welcome back for another trip through the Public Handicapper races of the day. First a look at last Sunday's Pacific Classic from Del Mar.

Can't say I saw Richard's Kid coming, but I should have. After all with last weekend being Labor Day weekend and Jerry raising money for his kids (does he still do that?), it should have been the hunch play of the week.

Glad to see Einstein still has a big effort, and hopefully more, in him. Rail Trip also ran a good race although he couldn't quite get up in the end. I thought Colonel John had a bit of a troubled trip. Getting stuck behind horses like he was can take a lot out a runner. By the time he finally did get clear he had nothing left. Global Hunter was the only one of the contenders that didn't become some kind of a factor in the race.

But that was last week. This a brand new week with brand new races to handicap. Here we go to Delaware Park for the first race of the week the G3 Endine. A 6 furlong affair for fillies and mares 3 and up.

The Endine is a speed filled affair that really caused me to waffle back and forth a lot. You would think this race would set up nicely for a late runner, but I just don't think the two late runners in this race are good enough to get the job done. I don't even know why the #3 Iron Butterfly is in this race. She is a good claiming horse but seems out classed here. Marty Wolfson's #7 Pious Ashley disappointed her backers at 0.9/1 in and allowance at Calder last out. As much as I love to pull for Wolfson when he ships, I can't see this one winning here.

#2 Keep The Peace and #1 Sunday Geisha are to need to lead types and someone has to give. I think it will be Sunday Geisha as Keep The Peace has been showing a little more staying power recently.

#4 Lady Chace, #5 Casanova Killer, #6 Fearless Leader, and #8 Bold Union.

4 of Fearless Leader's 5 wins have come on off tracks and the forecast for today does not include rain, except for showers. If the track is wet she becomes a factor.

That leaves 3 and Bold Union is the top choice having finished 2 lengths behind the last horse to finish ahead of Rachel Alexandra, Sara Louise, last out. I do have some trepidation about her wheeling back so soon, 14 days, after that last race. However, that used to be commonplace. She should be able to sit behind the pace and take over as the others falter.

Casanova Killer is the 2nd choice to win. Jeremy Rose gets the reins and he seems to ride a lot of Klesaris winners. Casanova Killer also comes off a win in the Jenny Wade Hdcp at Penn National.

Lady Chace is choice number 3. Probably figures to benefit most from the pace scenario but may not be quite fast enough here. B.J. Hernandez, Jr. and Steve Margolis have been another potent jockey/trainer combo, so she has to figure in here somewhere.

Finally Keep The Peace will be the 4th choice. She just may go all the way, but she seems to get caught a lot judging by her 7 2nd place finishes. Still this may be her best distance and she'll be sure to get the early jump on the others.

#8 Bold Union 8-5 take 5-2
#5 Casanova Killer 6-1 take 9-1
#4 Lady Chace 6-1 take 9-1
#2 Keep The Peace 6-1 take 9-1

Next we go north of the border to Toronto and the La Prevoyante for Ontario sired 3 year old fillies at 1 mile on the turf.

Tops on the list here is the #10 Double Malt who has done this twice before against similar and in many cases the same competition. Double Malt was odds on in a field of 4 last out and figures to be the favorite again. At least, in a field of 10, maybe you can get something better than 1-2 for your money.

The 2nd choice is #1 Executive Deed who takes the blinkers off and stretches out to a mile. Passing Mood ran 2nd to the top choice 2 back in a good first turf effort and could move forward off that effort. Will likely give be overlaid if everyone pounds on Double Malt as you would expect.

The 3rd choice is #5 Koonunga Hill. Koonunga Hill showed promise as a 2 year old but has failed to move forward as a 3 year old. Her latest efforts with 3 consecutive ascending Beyer's suggest this may be a horse on the improve.

#10 Double Malt 1-1 take 3-2
#1 Executive Deed 5-1 take 8-1
#5 Koonunga Hill 6-1 take 9-1

The next race is from Belmont Park the G1 Garden City Handicap for 3 year olds at a mile and an eight on the turf.

As of this writing the race is still on the grass, but it is raining so the going will be soft. The 4 logical contenders for this race have all run well on softer turf courses which helps making this race probably the easiest one to handicap so far.

#1 Gozzip Girl is the one to beat. She is rested and has been pointed for this race after dominating the American Oaks. She was flattered in that race by Well Monied who ran well to finish 3rd next out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1).

I can't choose between #6 Shared Account and #8 Maram for 2nd choice. Both are proven on soft turf and eligible to move forward and challenge Gozzip Girl. Give them equal chances.

The 4th choice is the #9 Keertana who was just a length slower than Shared Account last out after going 4 wide in the Lake Placid. This is a tough spot for her, but she is a Grade 3 winner and has a chance to step up.

#1 Gozzip Girl 5-2 take 4-1
#6 Shared Account 4-1 take 6-1
#8 Maram 4-1 take 6-1
#9 Keertana 6-1 take 9-1

The last race, the G3 Presque Isle Downs Masters for f and m 3 and up has the potential to be the most exciting race of the day with lots of early pace and stone cold closers to take advantage.

The tough part was finding legitimate contenders with experience on all-weather surfaces. This will be the first try over Tapeta for logical contenders #2 Diamondrella and and #4 Game Face. The #5 Bear Now is 8 of 14 on sythetic surfaces, but figures to be part of the early pace scenario.

I decided that #9 Informed Decision makes the most sense as she is 4 for 4 on fake surfaces and has the stalking ability to stay close to the leaders.

If Diamondrella can handle the surface, she will be coming late and is the 2nd choice here as she comes off of a key race G1 victory over the turf at Belmont and has been resting since that race in early June.

Game Face is another with tactical speed to stay close early and only need to prove some ability on the surface to be in contention and is the 3rd choice here.

Finally, in a nod to proven ability over sythetic soil, Bear Now will be the 4th choice although I expect the anticipated pace scenario is not in her favor.

#9 Informed Decision 3-1 take 9-2
#2 Diamondrella 4-1 take 6-1
#4 Game Face 4-1 take 6-1
#5 Bear Now 6-1 take 9-1

As always, these opinions are worth exactly what you pay for them. If you think they make some sense then feel free to use them, but don't blame me if they turn out to be duds.

Enjoy the days races and good luck.

Pacific Classic From Del Mar

2009-09-06T09:36:00.000-07:00

First, to recap yesterday's races.
The 4th race was won by the lone speed angle and number 3 contender Mother Russia. Mother Russia went to the front and never looked back. She was shadowed around the oval by betting favorite and top selection Our Golden Dream and 4th choice and 9-1 betting selection Akilina.
While Akilina was saving ground all the way and rallying gamely to take 2nd, Our Golden Dream was fading to 4th down the stretch. Exclusive Scheme closed well to get up for 3rd. Although the 8 horse and 2nd selection Soave was a tasty 10-1, with Akilina at 9-1, The Weasel decided to eschew the win bet and went for the exacta with all four contender selections OGD, MR, S, and A over S and A.
The exacta paid 101.50 for 2 dollars thank you very much.
The key angles for this race turned out to be the lone early speed and the hidden key race. Akilina didn't improve enough to win the race, but she did improve enough to finish a game 2nd and complete a nice exacta.
Finally got a little back from Linda Rice.
The 9th race at Sartoga The Forego went pretty much as expected. The abundance of speed in the race became the perfect set up for the top two contenders Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro. I played my little exacta thingy again even though I wasn't very enthusiastic about the 3rd and 4th choices, and thought I would pass a win bet until Pyro started drifting up toward 4/1 nearing post time. I just got it in on time.
Both Kodiak Kowboy and Pyro started slowly from the gate with Pyro racing next to last down the backstretch. KK made his move on the turn and seemed to be fighting his way through to the wire when the seas opened up and lo and behold there was Pyro coming down the middle of the stretch. I had lost sight of Pyro and had watch the replay several times before I could even pick him out of the throng.
Pyro had more at the end than KK and went on to win by about a length. Kodiak Kowboy probably had a little bit harder route to take and finished well to get 2nd.
The key angle in this race turns out to be 2nd off the layoff into a G1 Stakes and the strong prep race showing for bin Suroor Saeed and Pyro.
In the Darly Debutante, the 2nd choice Mi Sueno proved to be clearly the best although I do predict big things for the 2nd place finisher and 4th selection Blind Luck who showed that she belongs among the best 2 year olds in the west.
Repo, the top choice, raced in good stalking position and made a bid in the stretch, but didn't have enough in fading to fifth. No excuses for Repo.
The 3rd place finisher, La Nez, made a big move forward with this race and bears taking a close look at next time out.
For this race, I stuck to my guns playing Repo to win and then dropping beneath the other contenders in the exacta. As the saying goes,"You can't win 'em all."
The key winning factor for this race would seem to be a very classy horse, Mi Sueno, coupled with the top last out Beyer figure.
And now the race you've been waiting for the G1 Pacific Classic from Del Mar.
From a race shape perspective there are 4 horses that figure to be setting what should be an honest pace at the front of the race. #9 Tres Borrachos (20-1 ml) should be striving for the lead followed in close attendance by #3 Rail Trip (4-1), #5 Mast Track (15-1), and #7 Misremembered (12-1). Therefore, the race sets up nicely for those off the pace types like #6 Colonel John (5-2), #1 Informed (10-1), and #10 Einstein (7-2).
That being said, coming out of the Hollywood Gold Cup, Informed won the G2 San Diego Handicap, Global Hunter won the G1 Eddie Read, and Bullsbay won the G1 won the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. That, my friends, is a key race, and why I believe Rail Trip should be the favorite in this race.
A multiple G1 winner as a 3 year old, #6 Colonel John has been made the morning line favorite for only his 2nd race as a 4 year old. The race certainly sets up for him and I like his come back race as one that can be built upon.
Rail Trip has lost 2 races and the horse that won those races just happens to be in this one, the #1 Informed. Informed also has 2 wins and 2 places in 4 trips around the Del Mar oval. Having shown he is capable of beating Rail Trip, I don't see how this horse can be excluded from any contender list and I make him the 3rd contender. 10-1 on the morning line seems rather generous in my eyes.
The fourth choice for the race is the battle tested campaigner #10 Einstein (7-2). I do have my doubts about Einstein. The Arlington Million had to be a disappointment for his connections, and we have a recent change in ownership. Certainly his best racing days may be behind him at 7 years of age, or is he really 6 having been bred south of the equator its all so confusing.
Considering his last performance and his advancing age, 7-2 is, IMOH, to optimistic. Still, here's hoping one of our old favorites has at least one more big effort in him.
A horse to watch in this race is Misremembered. I think as a 3 year old with the race shape being what it is, the step up may be a little too much. However, this race will be a good experience for him if he can come out of it healthy. Look for him to move forward soon if not today.
Ok, there you have it. So far its been a good week for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Let's hope we can squeeze one more race from that stone and make a little money today.
Good luck.

All Hail Rachel Alexandra The Great

2009-09-05T15:07:00.001-07:00

By now you know that Rachel Alexandra has firmly established herself as the best horse in North America. Da Tara certainly did his job pressing for fractions of 22 and 4/5 and 46 and change. These incredible fractions for the quarter and half set the race up perfectly for the closers Macho Again and Bullsbay. Macho Again took up the challenge and made a run of it at the end, but Rachel got to the wire before Macho Again could get to Rachel.

All hail Rachel Alexandra The Great!

Rachel Faces Stiff Challenge In Woodward

2009-09-05T06:49:00.000-07:00

Ah yes, back once again for another excercise in public humiliation known as The Chalk Eating Weasel Report.

To briefly recap last week. The Report managed to improve a little on the previous week coming up with a straight winner in the Traver's Stakes with Summer Bird. Capt. Candyman Can and Music Note also managed to flatter the Weasel. The Captain, in particular, running a gutsy race to gain a well deserved win via the DQ.

The Ballston Spa nearly caused me to fall out of my seat with the winner Salve Germania. I wanted to include Salve Germania as the 4th contender, I really did. Although an Irish bred, Salve Germania has German breeding on the Dam side. I have been reporting on how the importance of the stamina element represented by German breds is being recognized on the Continent. Probably the first Lasix didn't hurt. My gut said, "Contender.", but my mind looked at a seemingly lack luster past performance and said, "No." Oh what a coup that would've been.

The Ballston goes to show that it's the ones that get away that hurt. Anyone could've come up with the winners of the other three races. No great feat there. But Salve Germania! It will be awhile before you get a price like that on her again.

Now to this week's Public Handicapper races. Today I will give analysis and selections for 3 of the 4 races. The Pacific Classic is tomorrow, so I will post that one later. As a special bonus, I'll take a look at the Woodward as well (pssst hint, hint, Rachel looks really good here).

Just a note here. I have been using the Daily Racing Form's Formulator for this weeks races. There are some things I like about the Formulator and some things I don't care for so much. Sounds like a bonus edition of The Chalk Eating Weasel Report is in the offing some time in the future.

The first race is the 70k Peerless Springs from Saratoga. The Peerless Springs in One Mile on the old sod for 3 year old, New York bred, fillies.

There are 10 horses entered in this race, but, honestly, there are 3 horses where I just have to ask myself why they have been placed in such an ambitious spot. Since all 3 are owned by private individuals, I just have to conclude that it may be a bit of an ego thing with these owners wanting to see their horses running at The Spa. The three tosses are Eager Emma, Elegant Bass, and Freedom Rings. If one of these wins, then it won't be the first time I've had egg on my face.

The top choice for this race is the 7-2 morning line favorite #4 Our Golden Dream. In her last race, OGD finished 4th 2 lengths behind Breeder's Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Maram and had a troubled trip to boot being checked at the half mile pole and steadied along the rail on the turn. Ascending Beyer's figures for the last 4 races indicate this is a 3 year old filly who is getting it. Favorite or not, this looks like the one to beat in this race.

The 2nd choice is #8 Soave at 5-1 in the morning line. Soave won a 30k Optional Claimer for non winners of 2 last out and now looks to step up her game. Kent Desormeaux has the reins. Soave is coming 3rd off a layoff into a stakes race. Trainer Thomas Bush is 28% (=5/2) with a positive ROI under these conditions. Hmm...3rd off layoff into a stakes race...actually sounds like a plan to me. At anything = or > than 4-1 Soave looks like a tasty choice to The Weasel.

The 3rd choice is the lone front-running speed in the race is the #7 Mother Russia. I can't tell you how much money I've lost betting against Linda Rice this season. Well, actually I can but I'm not going to. Last race out, Mother Russia wired the field at this distance and appears to be the only candidate that is capable of that feat again. Ramon Dominguez has ridden this horse 3 times and has won 3 times. Mother Russia is 4-1 in the morning line.

If you are looking for a long-shot try than the #2 Akilina at 12-1 in the morning line may be your huckleberry. Akilina is trained by noted turf trainer Clement Christophe and ridden by Rajiv Maragh. What you can't see in the racing form but can see if you look at the result chart in Formulator is that the 5th place finisher in Akilina's last race, Nedjma, won and was claimed in a 25k open claiming race next out. Along with Acquired Cat winning her next out, this becomes something of a hidden key race. Akilina has to get better to win, but if you can get a good price, take a shot. Be sure to use in the exotics.

The next PH race is the 9th at Saratoga, the G1 Forego for 3 and up contested at 7 furlongs.

Two horses stand out to me in this race so I'll just get down to it.

#2 Kodiak Kowboy has the to Beyer's for this race, has run in good form last two out, 3 for 7 at the distance and 2 for 4 over the surface. Seems to be the one to beat here. Trained by Larry Jones and ridden by Gabriel Saez, KK is also the 5-2 morning line favorite. I say,"If you can get 5-2 on KK, take it."

#4 Pyro is my 2nd choice and most likely where I will put my hard earned bucks if I play this race. Funny thing is, I burned a lot of money on Pyro as a 3 year old. Now he comes back and its like deja vu all over again. But...Pyro is coming off of a nice prep for bin Suroor Saeed who is 30% 2nd off layoffs coming into a G1 race. Again, sounds like a plan to me. Pyro is 4-1 in the morning line, and considering his checkered past, that seems about right.

Had a hard time going much deeper in this race, but after a lot of pondering I finally settled on the #7 Driven By Success for the 3rd choice. DBS has good early speed, which is always dangerous, but is not the only speed in the race, which is always dangerous to the early speed. Still DBS, a NY bred, has been competitive, if not entirely successful in open graded company finishing 3rd in the Metropolitan Hdcp and the Tom Fool Hdcp and would not be a complete surprise. Ramon Dominguez takes the seat, but Bruce Levine has been ice cold at the Spa so demand a price on this pony.

Finally we come to #6 Golden Trippi at 20-1 in the morning line. GT is the winner of Pyro's comeback race, so why 20-1. Perhaps its the lack of Graded success, but I would rather have GT than others in this race, so consider him a very tepid choice numero quatro.

Out to the other coast at Del Mar for the 8th race on that card The G1 Darly Debutante for 2 year old fillies.

The top choice here is the very unchalky 6-1 morning line runner #8 Repo. Repo has done nothing but win 3 of her 4 starts including two stakes victories. I don't understand the line makers reticence here except for possible the relatively low Beyer's figure last out. This is where I think reliance on Beyer's figures as a handicapping tool can be misleading. Repo stalked the pace last out, moved to win and won easily. It's not her fault the pacesetter was slow and its to Cory Nakatani's credit that he took no more from the horse than needed to win. But Cory will not be on Repo as we get a positive jockey change to Mr. Garrett Gomez for this race. Personally, I will be surprised if she goes off anything near 6-1 but will consider it a Prime bet if the line maker is correct.

#6 Mi Sueno is pick number 2 and the 9/5 morning line favorite. Mi Sueno comes off a G3 win where she turned the tables on 1st race foe and 3rd choice # 4 Necessary Evil. Both Mi Sueno and Necessary Evil are flattered that by the 4th place finisher in their last race, Camille C, who won a 100k overnight for Cal breds next out. Either of these two could take out the top choice Repo.

#3 Blind Luck is the 4th choice. 9-2 in the morning line, BL has won 2 races in 2 tries with speed to spare. The two races were a 4ok maiden claimer and a40k Starter allowance so she will need to step up in class some to compete here. But note she spotted the field over 7 lengths due to a bad start and still won by an easy 3.5 lengths.

Now for the race we all are waiting for the G1 Woodward.

#3 Rachel Alexandra's last out 116 is 6 points better than the next best Beyer's on the form and 9 points better than the next best last out, and she has improved her Beyer's for 10 consecutive races. How much better can she get? She is an obvious top pick and frankly, this race probably won't be playable.

As for the competition. #1 Da Tara has been disappointing since the 2008 Belmont Stakes, #2 Bullsbay seems unlikely to duplicate his 107 effort last out, #1a Cool Coal Man won by a huge margin last out and could upset the precocious filly, #4 Macho Again also ran his best ever figure last out in finishing 2nd, #5 It's a Bird (Birdonthewire not Birdstone) ships in for Marty Wolfson who won with Icon Project and is 18% with a positive ROI when shipping out for stakes races, #6 Asiatic Boy was considered for the Pacific Classic when Rachel declared her intentions showing how much confidence McLaughlin has here, and #7 Past The Point will have to regain his form from last fall to have a chance.

Here's the race in short hand

#3 Rachel Alexandra
#1a Cool Coal Man
#5 It'a A Bird
#2 Bullsbay

Good luck and see you tomorrow with the Pacific Classic

Rainy Day For Travers

2009-08-29T04:26:00.000-07:00

Wet weather will be the order of the day for Saratoga Springs. After last weeks poor showing by yours truly, that's all I need is for the rain to wreak havoc on my selections this week.

If the rain falls as forecast, it's a pretty safe bet the Ballston Spa will come off the turf. I can't forecast who will stay in the race if it is moved to the main track.

On the grass, I was alredy going to go somewhat against the conventional wisdom using #7 Cocoa Beach under the guidance of Ramon Dominquez for bin Suroor Saeed and Godophin Stable. Cocoa Beach has shown ability on both grass and dirt. In fact, if this race is moved off the grass to the main track, Cocoa Beach, being 2 for 3 on off tracks in a field that shows no other significant main track form becomes your Pick 4 single.

The 2nd choice for the Ballston Spa on grass is the 1 horse Rutherienne ridden by Alan Garcia and trained by Christophe Clement. Rutherienne had a lot of traffic problems in her last race the G1 Diana Stakes. In 20 races, Rutherienne has finished in the money 18 times including 14 of her last fifteen all graded stakes. With that stat in mind, one has to think she'll be sniffing around the money once more. If the race goes to the main course, I dunno.

No 2 My Princess Jess, Cornelio Velasquez - Barclay Tagg, gets the nod as 3rd choice. The Princess finished 5th in the Diana should see improvement here coming 2nd off the layoff. She has won Graded at the Spa before, and she has won on soft turf before. If on the grass, the going should be to her liking.

Finally, the #3 Closeout , Albarado-Proctor, should also get some consideration here. Grade 3 winner last out she comes off a bit off a freshening but has been training well on the Turf here. The Albarado-Proctor connection is 40% in the winner's circle over the last 5 years (Thanks DRF Formulator); however, you'll have to balance that with the fact that Thomas Proctor has yet to win in 5 starts at the Spa this season.

The Ballston Spa Hdcp--G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.

On Turf
#7 Cocoa Beach
#1 Rutherienne
#2 My Princess Jess
#3 Closeout

Dirt
#7 Cocoa Beach
?????????????

The 7 furlong Ballerina Stakes shapes up to be a 2 horse race between the #2 Informed Decision and #4 Indian Blessing. The knock on Informed Decision all week has been that her performance on dirt is not quite up to her artificial surface standards. It is true that her dirt Beyer's figures are 6-10 points lower than her artificial figures, yet all she has done is win her last 5 times out including 2 Grade 1 wins a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 win.

Indian Blessing comes off a bit of a layoff having had an infection problem that kept her out of the G2 Princess Rooney here at Calder. Side note, I told you before that race she was not herself and, as it turned out, she didn't even make the trip. However, she's supposed to be all better now. It is reported by DRF that Tonya Terranova, who trains horses for Baffert when they run at Saratoga, says that Indian Blessing is all revved up and ready to go.

This just in. Races 1, 5 and 13 have been taken off the turf. Posted by Steven Crist at DRF.com

I'm going to have to give Indian Blessing the edge here as she if 2 for 2 at Saratoga. If Indian Blessing can run back to her usual self and the tendency of Informed Decision to drop off just a bit on dirt holds up, she is the one to beat.

The Ballerina, Grade 1 7f for Fillies and Mares 3 and up

Top choices
4 Indian Blessing
2 Informed Decision
1 Music Note

The rains have really muddied the Kings Bishop. Here's the way I see it.

Big Drama starts from the outside post-advantage. Big Drama turns back to his best distance after leading 8 furlongs of a 9 furlong West Va. Derby-advantage. Big Drama shows a definite pattern of winning on the turnback after running a route-advantage. Big Drama has never raced on an off-track-disadvantage.

Capt. Candyman Can is 3 for 3 at this distance-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can comes out of chasing the record breaking Quality Road managing to finish 2nd with his own personal best Beyer's figure-advantage. Capt. Candyman Can has won on an off track-advantage.

Munnings outran Rachel Alexandra for 6f in the Haskell-advantage. Munnings has finished ITM 2 times in 2 tries on off track-advantage. Munnings has run nothing but triple digit Beyer's as a 3 yo-advantage.

The above horses are the big 3 for this race. I am going to take a leap of faith and say that Big Drama can handle the off going. I think of these 3 he is likely to give the best price.

Kings Bishop, G1 7f for 3 year olds

8 Big Drama
3 Capt. Candyman Can
2 Munnings

And now for the main event the 1 1/4 mile Travers Stakes.

The only knock on the 4 Quality Road is the question of whether or not he can get the distance with only one prep off the layoff. Now you can add will he handle the off track to that list of doubts. I liked Quality Road going into the Derby. I saw his races at Gulfstream and he is an impressive specimen. I wasn't worried about the distance, and his Tomlinson number suggests he should handle the surface although you never know for sure until they actually do.

The 7 Kensei, stable mate to Rachel Alexander, is the horse Steve Asmussen refers to as Rodney Dangerfield. Asmussen has been steadily stretching him out in successive races and expects the added distance will not be a problem. Kensei is a hot horse right now and the Prado-Asmussen combination has been effective winning at a 36% clip for 28 races over 2008 and 2009 with a positive ROI.

6 Summer Bird is a proven commodity on off going with his strong Derby showing and 2nd place finish in the Haskell. In addition, he has proven that the distance will not be and issue. With plenty of speed on the front end to run at, I expect the son of Birdstone will be flying home at the end.

The Travers G1 for 3 year olds shapes up like this for me

6 Summer Bird
7 Kensei
4 Quality Road

That covers 3 of the 4 Public Handicapper races. I doubt I'll get around to the Del Mar Mile today. Here's hoping I did a better job than last week.

Good luck.

Saratoga Dreamin'

2009-08-22T06:00:00.000-07:00

Hi folks. How ya doin'! I just flew in from Saratoga, and, boy are my arms tired. RIMSHOT!

But seriously. Got in at 1:00 am on Tuesday morning having to be at the day job that very day. Still, it was a great time even if the wagering did not go so well for yours truly. I failed to adjust to the closer bias on Friday. Saturday it was bombs away day with longshots hitting the board all over the place. Normally, not a problem. As you've probably observed if you've been following my exploits, the Weasel doesn't mind taking a price now and then. I just couldn't find the right price on Saturday.

Last weekend was my first visit to the Mecca of racing, Saratoga. Now that I've made the pilgrimage, all I can say is wow! The first thing that impressed me about the facility is the sheer size of the place. Television does not really give one a good perspective on how big the place actually is. The Weasel was also impressed by the number of betting windows that were open and how easy it was to hang out by a window to the last conceivable moment before placing a wager. Cheese and rice! At Gulfstream you have to get in line at 5 MTP and hope some old geezer isn't trying to play every trifecta combination 1 at a time to an equally geriatric teller that can't hear his own thoughts.

Today is move in day at the U. Which is also known as the University of Miami. So I will not be playing the game in all likelihood which is just as well since I was really underwhelmed with most of the Public Handicapper races for today. However, not to let my loyal public down. I came up with some selections for your perusal

The first race is the 6f Tax Free Shopping Distaff Stakes for Fillies and Mares 3 and up. Honestly, the line up for this race looks more like an Optional Claimer than a stakes race with several easy tosses such as #2 So So Devine, a 5 year old that has never run to par, #6 Espindola, a recent winner of a $5000 claiming race for non winners of 4, #8 Dell Reef, a 7 year old runner that has never even run close to par, and #11 Graceful Ginger who was claimed for 30k back in may only to be put on the shelf for 3 months.

The one horse that does stand out on the positive side is #10 Sunday In Malibu who actually seems to be getting some class relief coming into this weak field. Look for Jeremy Rose and Michael Trombetta to find the winner's circle here.

Another possible contender is the lucky #13 Miss Pauline ridden by Clinton Potts for Flint Stiles. Miss Pauline shows an interesting every other good race/bad race pattern last 4 out and is due for a good race.

The final contender for this race is the speed on the rail #1 Christina's World, a lightly raced 3 year old ridden by Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones who team up again less than an hour later at Monmouth if the forms are to be believed. There are other front running types in this race so the pace may be too much for her; however, the track has been favorable to speed and the rail so she may be worth a shot at a price.

Moving up, or is it down, the coast to Monmouth for the G3 Philip H. Iseling Stakes for 3 and up my top selection is #1 Researcher Carmouche for Bunco. Twice Researcher has run his best races 3rd off the layoff and, guess what, its 3 off time again for the 5 year old gelding. Researcher beat Ea and Dry Martini in April and looks to be the one to beat here to the Weasel.

#5 Coal Play ridden by Bravo for Zito is 2-1 ML favorite and my 2nd choice. Coal Play sports an E8 Quirin fig (meaning he's a confirmed front runner). However, every other horse in the race is an early/presser type and I don't think they'll let him run away and hide today. Coal Play has run two consecutive big Brisnet figures and shows a pattern of regressing after such a set up.

#3 Solar Flare ridden by the busy Gabriel Saez for Larry Jones is the 3rd choice. Solar Flare finished 6 lengths behind Coal Play last out but has run fast enough in the past to win here if Coal Play regresses and Researcher doesn't fire.

At Saratoga its the G1 Alabama Stakes for 3yo Fillies.

Yesterday the track was sloppy and thunderstorms are in the forecast for today. I'm guessing the going will be sloppy again today which will suit #3 Funny Moon just fine. Funny Moon, ridden by Alan Garcia for Christophe Clement, is 3 for 3 on an off track and the winner of the 1 1/4 mile Coaching Club American Oaks last out.

#5 Careless Jewel ships up from Delaware after winning the G2 Delaware Oaks and sports the highest speed figure of the bunch. If that figure is real than she will be the one to catch.

#6 Be Fair has already won the G3 Lake George this meet and did it over a sloppy Saratoga track, so she should also be considered if the rains come.

#8 Milwaukee Appeal has won some big money races, but most of them have been restricted to Canadian breds. We'll get a chance here to see just how good she is.

Finally we come to the G1 Del Mar Oaks for 3 yo fillies.

This race run on the all weather surface is being invaded, for the most part by Turf specialists.

#5 Well Monied (Rosario-Zucker) will be the one to beat and has the virtue of at least working out on the Del Mar main track.

#6 Strawberry Tart (M. Garcia-Bonde) has also been working on the main track and shows ascending speed figures, always a good sign for a 3 year old.

#9 Lexienos lures Alex Solis off last out winner Starlarks, so that ought to tell you something. Off course, Alex has been riding Lexienos too, so he knows both horses and chooses this one.

That's all for today. Its off to the U to bid my son adieu.

Good Luck

Leavin' On A Jet Plane

2009-08-11T17:30:00.000-07:00

This will be my first physical trip to the Saratoga Race Course. Up until now I've only been there in my dreams. I already have Friday's card handicapped and am chomping at the bit for the Saturday past performances to become available. I hope they come out tomorrow so that my lap top can be left behind. My motel will not have wifi available. When the desk clerk was asked if they had wifi available in the room the response,"No, were in the mountains." When questioned about what being in the mountains had to do with internet access, I was informed that the library in town was open until 7:00.

So while I anxiously await Saturday's PP's I thought I might give a little update on the Handicapping the Handicapper project. Since the onset of this project, I have handicapped 161 races of various types. The table below shows the performance of my top 4 contenders.

The table shows that my top contender won nearly 30% of the races I handicapped. The 2nd almost 17%, 3rd 18% and 4th 14.5%. The reason each contender does not equal 161 is because there are occasionally races where I could not come up with 4, 3, or even 2 contenders I could make a legitimate case for (these races do not include any in which Rachel Alexandra or Zenyatta participated).

These percentages, or probabilities of the contenders winning translates to the odds shown in the next to last column on the right. These odds indicate what my win expectancy for each contender level. The final column is my win expectancy + 50%. The extra 50% allows for an extra margin of error. Thus, the minimum odds I am able to take at this time is 7/2 and I require 9/1 for my Number 4 contender. It is easy to see that I have not been playing too many favorites to win.

In the original article, I suggested that by dividing races in categories such as Maiden Claiming, Maiden races, claiming and so on, one might be able to better refine the personal odds requirement for each type. In addition, I suggested the use of a moving average of 30 races for each type of race. Please check the archives for the original post, "Handicapping the Handicapper" for the details.

To build a quickie database to test while I was accumulating my personal data, I kept a record from races run at Calder Race Course. I discovered that 30 races were an insufficient base to work from as the odds didn't make sense in some cases. I expanded the number to 50 races, and found that at 50, the results made more sense in that the top choice of the collective betting public performed better than the 2nd, than the 3rd, than the 4th.

To date, I have not handicapped any single class of races 50 times yet. The largest category is graded stakes races with 26. This is because I have been trying to concentrate on better quality races over the Summer. In addition, I have been trying to become a little less parochial in my handicapping habits, so lack of personal time requires me to be more selective about which races I choose to handicap and play.

So for now I will continue to use the generalized table above although I think it is time to start a new one. As the number of races increases, the table becomes less responsive to my current handicapping prowess.

The 161 races yielded a total of 66 win or exacta wagers made. 42 win wagers and 70 exacta wagers on a total of 38 races. So using this method of creating a contender odds line has certainly had the desired effect of cutting the number of races played.

Of the 42 win wagers made a paltry 6 were winners for a 14.3% win rate. At an average 6.88-1 odds for winning wagers this resulted in $0.13 profit for each dollar wagered. Note this is not a $2.00 flat bet result as my wager size may vary depending on whether or not I'm including an exacta wager on the race. Also there are couple of winning wagers where the winner was obviously superior to the field and the odds sufficiently tasty that I couldn't resist and abandoned my system and played the low odds overlay (yes, there can be low odds overlays). Removing these from the database would have the effect of lowering the win rate, but the average winning odds would increase.

Surprisingly, the real money has been made playing the exactas. Of the 70 exacta wagers (2 to 6 individual exacta wagers per race) made 5 resulted in cashing a ticket for a 7.1% success rate. However, at an average return of 39.4-1 this results in a return of $2.01 for each dollar wagered. No confessions are required for this figure as all exacta wagers conform to the template of playing my overlay horse underneath the other contenders in the race. Seemingly, a very effective way of playing the races if one is able to contend with the inevitable losing streaks that are going occur in between the winners. For me the bottom line is am I showing a profit. The results here indicate that this method of setting acceptable odds is working.

A word about the exacta. I have found through experience that if my overlay horse is at odds of 5-1 or less, the payoff on the exacta is not usually worth the risk, especially if the other contenders are at lower odds. In this case, I just increase the win bet and leave out the exacta. Also, placing an exacta bet on such horses effectively lowers the odds on the overlay horse in such a way that should the horse win the extra money required for the exacta has destroyed the overlay price.

At this point, I am confident that once I am able to use odds for specific types of races, the method will really fine tune the odds I am able to accept on a race. For instance, after 26 Graded Stakes races, the required odds for the top choice is 5-1 based on a top contender success rate of 23%, but overnight stakes would require only 3-2 based on a 50% top rate after 20 races. In my opinion, this is where the real value of this exercise lays.

In conclusion, the purpose of Handicapping the Handicapper is to find an objective method of establishing an odds line for top contenders in the race. While there is still more work to be done before declaring the method successful, the interim results reported here show great promise.

A final note. It seems unlikely that I will be able to provide Public Handicapper selections for this weekend, so you're on your own.

Til Next time. Good Luck!

Bullseye for Bullsbay and The Weasel

2009-08-09T05:25:00.000-07:00

Yesterday was a big day for The Chalk Eating Weasel Report. Here's a recap of how the day's action went down.

In the Grade 1 Secretariat Stakes, the 3rd ranked contender Take The Points finally fulfilled his potential and out dueled Black Bear Island down the stretch. Financially, the race was a pass as no horse's odds ventured into the playable arena. However, there is nothing the Weasel likes more, other than cashing a ticket, than watching two of his contenders battle it out down the stretch.

In the Grade 1 Beverly D Stakes, you can't say that the Weasel did not alert you to the possibility of Dynaforce. At 7-1, Dynaforce to win was the correct play in the race. I say the "correct" play because I actually took the 8-1 Alnadana to win. Luckily, on any horse at > 5-1, I also play the win selection underneath the other win contenders yielding a nifty exacta worth $160.40 on $2.00 played. At the very least, 7-1 is nothing to sneeze at. I hope some of my readers took advantage of the value that was offered in this race.

The next race, The Arlington Million, went pretty much according to the way most people thought it would. Presious Passion went to the lead and the rest of the field was left to play catch up. To no one's great surprise, Gio Ponti proved to be the best horse in the race. If you followed my advice, this race was a pass. I was afraid Presious Passion might build up an insurmountable lead as he did in the United Nations at Monmouth, but that turned out not to be the case. Perhaps the soft ground took its toll on the front-running gelding as he began to wilt on the turn and had nothing left for the stretch run.

Finally, the day's coup de grace. Bullsbay at 18-1 was the upset winner of the Whitney. To say I was high on Bullsbay's chances would not be truthful. Still I liked his chances better than Commentator who I thought was overrated. I liked his chances better than Tizway's who figured to get used up early chasing Commentator. And I felt his last race on the plastic surface was an anomaly. Bullsbay, does show 2 wins and 4 more in the money finishes on "all weather" surfaces, but each surface is different. I don't know if he has ever shown any ability on Hollywood's surface or not. Of all the horses running, Bullsbay seemed most likely to improve off of his last effort which made him a tepid contender needing at least 9-1 and fully worthy of a wager at 18-1. I do hope you joined the Weasel in cashing that ticket.

Next week I will be at the historic Saratoga Race Track on Friday and Saturday. I will try to post Public Handicapper races for next Saturday, but I don't know at this time about the availability of a wireless connection or time to actually make the post. However, if anyone within reading distance of this would like to meet at some time during those two days, I'd love to meet you. Also if anyone ever benefits by anything I write here, I'd like to here about that as well. C'mon stroke my 'er...ego and show the Weasel some love. Who's a good Weasel? You're a good Weasel! ;=)

Until the next post. Good Luck

Arlington Million

2009-08-08T05:22:00.000-07:00

Today is Arlington Million day. We have a highly competitive group for the Arlington Million as well as the other 3 Public Handicapper races today. Arlington Park was off the turf on Friday and the going today will likely be something less than firm.

The first race to cover is the mile and a quarter G1 Secretariat Stakes for 3 year olds. The 1A entry, Driving Snow is an early scratch from the race making the job a little easier.

The 1 Cliffy's Future has never run on Turf before and without much turf pedigree to speak of, The Cliff's Edge (Gulch), appears to be misplaced here. The other easy elimination is Hoosier Kingdom who has been tearing up the Indiana State Breds but will find the opposition here a little more accomplished.

The remaining contenders seem very evenly matched, and you can make a case for each of them. However, they can't all win so we have to take a stand somewhere and this is how I see it.

The top selection is the 8 horse Reb at 5 to 1 in the morning line that price seems pretty fair if it holds up. Winner of 3 straight including the Grade 2 American Derby last out. Julien Leparoux gets the call on this son of Stormy Atlantic, and we'll be looking for him to make a late run.

The second choice ships over off a lackluster Group 1 effort at Longchamp at a Mile and a half. The shorter distance should be to the liking of the number 9 Black Bear Island winner of a Group 2 contest back in may. Additionally, Black Bear Island should feel right at home on a soggy turf course.

The third choice is a horse I liked quite a bit earlier in the year, the 7 horse Take The Points. Although yet to show a win on the turf, the surface switch seems to have been a wake up call for the Pletcher trainee. The comment line says Take The Points hung in finishing 3rd to Battle of Hastings in the Virginia Derby. I think the rider change to Kent Desormeaux may be the difference which finally puts this underachiever over the top.

The fourth choice is the 10 horse Giant Oak. Giant Oak is the horse for course here with 2 wins in 3 tries at Arlington Park. Giant Oak had a troubled trip as the favorite last out and figures to improve position in this race with a better trip.

I think you can also make some sort of case for Proceed Bee, Laureate Conductor, Quite A Handful, and Oil Man. So if you wanted to go in that direction I wouldn't blame you.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
8 Reb /3-1/ 9-2
9 Black Bear Island/ 4-1 /6-1
7 Take The Points /5-1/ 8-1
10 Giant Oak/ 6-1 /9-1

The next race is the 1 and 3/16 Mile G1 Beverly D. Stakes for Fillies and Mares for 3 and older.

For this race I again go to the entry ridden by Julien Leparoux for the top choice. No I don't have a particular thing for Leparoux. I do, along with Kent Desormeaux, consider him to be among the best turf riders in North America. Something about those Acadians. In this case, I do consider the #2 Pure Clan to be the best horse in the race. Pure Clan is a multiple graded stakes winner including last years American Oaks and Leparoux always seems to get her best out of her. She has 5 wins in 8 tries over grass 2 wins in 3 attempts at the distance and is 1 for 1 over the Arlington course.

The next selection is the foreign shipper #1 Alnadana has been showing very strong recent form in some classy Group 2 and 3 races in France and England including a win last out in the Group 3 Prix Messidor. She won that race by 3 lengths and, according to the Racing Post, http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/alnadana-maisons-laffitte-france-alnadana-dominates-prix-messidor/610071/, the margin of victory could have been more.

The next selection is the #7 Dynaforce ridden by, are you ready, Kent Desormeaux. At 10-1 in the morning line, Dynaforce may be the over looked horse in the race if the ML is accurate. Dynaforce showed a nice move forward in her last race from the previous and any further improvement would put her right into contention in this spot.

For the 4th selection, I was leaning towards the 6 Tizaqueena until I learned that Alnadana is likely to contest her for the lead. Not wanting to speedy types as contenders on grass I moved to the California shipper #4 Black Mamba ridden by Garrett Gomez. If this multiple graded stakes winner can duplicate her last effort she should be a factor at the end.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
2 Pure Clan /3-1 /9-2
1 Alnadana/ 4-1/ 6-1
7 Dynaforce /4-1/ 6-1
4 Black Mamba /6-1 /9-1

The Main Event today is, of course, The Arlington Million Stakes-G1 1 and 1/4 miles for 3 yo and up

For this race the Weasel is going to go out on a limb and make, oh let's see, Ummm #6 Gio Ponti the favorite. Gio Ponti has won 3 consecutive G1 races making a 5 wide move last out to take the Man O War last out. Ramon Dominquez gets the call today. Ramon cost me a lot of money in, I think it was the 3rd race, last Saturday at Saratoga with his aggressive ride that the stewards chose to forgive. Maybe this week I'll have him on my side, but I doubt it.

#2 Presious Passion is another hot horse who has been toying with the competition at Monmouth. Today PP will have to survive the challenge from "cheap" speed in the form of Recapturetheglory. It looks like a mismatch, but if he can stay with PP for a 1/2, maybe it will take enough out of the front running gelding to give the rest a chance.

Next is the crowd favorite #1 Einstein who never runs a bad race and returns to his favorite surface. Einstein has never won the Million. I for one will be pulling for him to put this notch in his belt and may even bet on it if the price is right.

This field is so deep that G1 winner #5 Mr. Sidney is 10/1 in the morning line. The distance may not be his best, but is he stays at 10/1 or better this winner of 5 out of 7 on the grass would certainly be worth a look.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti /2-1 /3-1
2 Presious Passion/ 9-2/ 7-1
1 Einstein /5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney /6-1/ 9-1

Finally we move over to Saratoga, where your's truly will be in attendance this coming Friday and Saturday, for the G1 Whitney Hdcp.

#7 Commentator is the sentimental and ML Favorite, but he starts from the disadvantageous outside post, has the naturally speedy Tizway to the inside to contend with, and a much stronger field than the statebreds he beat up on last out. Commentator will have three accomplished closers chasing after him down the stretch.

The numero uno contender here is #4 Macho Again. I made the mistake of discounting Macho Again in the last race he was in that I handicapped the G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp. Having been burned once, I won't ignore him this time out. Doesn't mean I will play him, but I won't be surprised this time out

Next up will be the star-crossed #2 Asiatic Boy with 2 second place finishes in the states. Asiatic Boy will benefit from an inside post position and I expect he will be there at the end again.

The 3rd choice will be #6 Dry Martini. The 6yo gelding has been thriving since moving to Barclay Tagg's barn. Like the previous two, the pace set up should be great for him. I think, realistically, any of the three can win this race. Whoever gets the trip wins, its that close.

The 4th pick is #3 Bullsbay. Throw out his last effort over the plastic surface. Probably a notch below the top 3 picks, keep in your trifecta at the very least.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds/ Overlay (play odds)
4 Macho Again /7-2 /5-1
2 Asiatic Boy/ 7-2/ 5-1
6 Dry Martini /7-2/ 5-1
3 Bullsbay /6-1 /9-1

Those are the picks for the day. Hope you find them useful. Good luck

This just in. The Weasel has learned that the turf at Arlington has been rated yielding and that Recapturetheglory has been scratched from the Arlington Million. In my opinion, this tilts the pace scenario to the benefit of Pressious Passion. However we will have to watch the earlier races to see how speed holds up over the course. The odds line below reflects my change of opinion on the race.

The odds line for the contenders:
Entry /Fair Odds /Overlay (play odds)
6 Gio Ponti/ 3-1/ 9-2
2 Presious Passion /3-1 /9-2
1 Einstein/ 5-1/ 8-1
5 Mr. Sidney/ 6-1 /9-1

Coming To A Spa Near You

2009-08-07T09:48:00.000-07:00

The Chalk Eating Weasel is very happy to announce that he will be in attendance, live and in person, at the race track at Saratoga Springs, NY on August 14 and 15. I look forward to meeting any of my fellow TBA bloggers who may be in attendance or any readers that find anything I do here of value. Drop me a line and maybe we can put our heads together and take some money away from these well heeled Summer-time patrons. Now that's taxation of the rich I can support.

I am also happy to tell you that I have already made selections for the Public Handicapper races of the week. Unfortunately, three of the races are on the turf at Arlington. Normally, not a problem, but the weather for tomorrow is a little iffy with thunderstorms predicted for overnight and tomorrow morning. I will have to wait until tomorrow morning and see if the races will still be on turf and check the scratches before I make final decisions. So tune in later.

Scratches in the Lady Secret

2009-08-02T12:52:00.000-07:00

If you've been paying attention, you have already noted that there have been some scratches in the Lady Secret. No doubt the sloppy going has something to do with this. Among the scratches is my top selection Spritely. No worries, a check the PP's of the remaining contenders shows that they have all shown an ability to handle the off going. Just slide everyone up one slot in the contender list.

An addition to the contender list is the #5 Devil House who now becomes the lone E8 horse in the race with the scratch of Spritely. I don't really know about Monmouth, but many times a sealed sloppy track at Calder gets very fast and if DH can get loose they may not catch her today.

Wow that was a big crowd getting their picture taken in the winner's circle for race 9!

One last word. While all the contenders have shown ability in off going, the 2 horse Annabil is 3 wins in 7 tries with 6 finishes in the money in the off going. Also, in race 9, the 5 horse who won didn't immediately get the lead as the 9 horse shot out of the gate and crossed the entire field to get to the rail, but he/she was 2nd down the back stretch, took over and never looked back.

This post has been powered by a frosty mint julep

Good luck

From the Spa To The Shore

2009-08-02T04:42:00.000-07:00

Back from the simulcast room at Gulfstream where I spent the day pondering the puzzles of Saratoga. Forever Together was no puzzle in frustrating Rutherienne once again. Warrior's Reward did run better this time, as expected, but not well enough to beat Kensei in the Jim Dandy. Good day for Steve Asmussen winning the W. Va Derby then turning around for the Jim Dandy to complete the exacta. Just missed with Strawberry Tart. Since I haven't actually seen the race, I don't really know what happened to the other contenders.

Always a glutton for punishment, I have one more selection as the Public Handicapper contest spans the weekend moving down to the Jersey shore for a Haskell preliminary race the 100k Lady's Secret Stakes for fillies and mares 3 and up.

An interesting race as it seems all the best horses are starting from the difficult outside post positions. What's a poor handicapper to do? Well you can either hold your nose and pick them anyways, go inside and hope for an upset, or try a little of both.

At least the top choice is not a compromise as the Weasel likes the #6 Spritely trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by J. R. Velazquez. While Spritely sports an E8 Quirin Figure and likes to be on or near the lead, she has shown she is not a "need to lead" type which is going to serve her well with the speedy Devil House to her inside.

The 2nd choice is in the statiscally challenged outside #8 post. Jasmine Gardens has been showing good form for trainer Albertrani. She has won twice over the grounds in two tries and has shown a liking for the distance. Former Calder apprentice (no more) Paco Lopez gets the call.

The 3rd selection, #7 Ask The Moon is coming out of a nice stakes win over the course and should be on or near the lead early. Joe Bravo certainly knows his way around the track so I have to give her a chance here.

Finally, if you're shopping for a price, take a look at # 2 Annabill. This 6 yo mare is no stranger to the winner's circle having made it a respectable 18 in 45 tries. She has won a stakes event this year and showed good improvement in her 2nd race over the Monmouth oval. If you want to try your luck with this crafty veteran you're going to have to project further improvement and demand a price. What you do get for your leap of faith is a 25% winner in Elvis Trujillo and Steve DiMauro who wins Non Graded stakes at a 22% clip with a positive ROI.

I'll try to be in on the action in this race provided I'm not at our own shore watching the dog frolic in the surf.

Good Luck until next time

The 3rd choice

Life Happens

2009-08-01T08:10:00.000-07:00

I'm sorry its been so long but sometimes life gets in the way of the things we'd rather be doing. Two weeks ago I was up to Orlando with my wife and daughter for the UCF open house. Last week, I was having ATT U-Verse installed and was down all Saturday morning and into the afternoon. I have been forced to work through lunch at my job which cuts down some of my most productive handicapping time. This morning my wife went out to a dead battery in her car, so here I sit with 90 minutes to first post at Calder and no races on the card handicapped.

Fortunately, I went through most of the Saratoga card at the beach last night, and I have the Public handicapper race from Del Mar as well. The fourth race is from Monmouth tomorrow, so I'll get to that later.

Ok, this is an abbreviated Weasel Saturday as I still have to shower and wash of the battery changing grime before schlepping over to Gulfstream to watch the Saratoga races. Unless I change my mind and choose to play the home game that is.

The G1 Diana Race 9

I'm still trying to figure out if Rutherienne is running today at the spa or tomorrow at the shore as she is dual entered. However, Saratoga just posted their scratches and she's still in as far as I can tell so I'll go the direction for now.

Still the top choice is #10 Forever Together followed by #3 Rutherienne (if in) #2 Quiet Meadow who seems to be finally getting it and #4 Indescribable. If Rutherienne scratches move the other two up 1 position and throw in #6 Carribean Sunset. As a side note, I would really like Criticism, but the Spa turf is tough on front runners, but sometimes a soggy course can favor the leaders so watch how the surface playing.

G2 Jim Dandy Race 10
The pick is #4 Warrior's Reward who had a bad start in the Dwyer and managed to finish 3rd making up a lot of ground in the process. 2nd choice is #3 Kensei, the winner of the Dwyer. #5 Charitable Man is the 3rd pick and #1 Saratoga Sinner with Leparoux comes off a 6 month layoff to be the 4th choice. My only trepidation about SS is why put a G3 winning 3 year old on the shelf during what could be said prime time for 3 yo racing? But if he's healthy, he is capable of beating all of these.

G2 San Clemente Hdcp Race 8 Del Mar

I'm looking for bit of an upset here with #3 Strawberry Tart in what seems to me to be a somewhat weak G2 field. Even though 7/2 in the ML ST might slip under the radar and give a decent price. The 2nd choice is #9 Acting Lady who is a legit G2 winner with Joe Talamo aboard. The 3rd pick is #4 Carlsbad trying the turf for the 1st time certainly has the credentials to win here if she takes to the surface. Her pedigree 3 turf works suggest she will, but she will also have to put away Oliginowile on the front end to have a chance. The fourth pick is #1 Nan who has been chasing the best 3 year old fillies all year. This may be her race to finally shine.

That's it for an abbreviated Weasel Report. Check back later for the 4th pick from Monmouth tomorrow.

HANA Goes To Mountaineer

2009-07-17T14:51:00.000-07:00

No Public Handicapper picks this week. Taking the daughter to the University of Central Florida for an open house. Don't even know what the races are yet and won't have time to look at them.

However, not to leave you totally lost, I have the HANA race of the week. A $5000.00 claiming event for fillies and mares 3 and up who have never won two races. It is race 2 on your program and post time is 7:25.

My top choice for the race is the 2 horse Wynn For Mary who seems to have found a home and a distance in West Virginny. Since moving up from Tampa, the lightly raced 4 year old has won 2 of 4 and finished in the money the other two tries. In addition, stretching out to a mile seemed to be just what the doctor ordered as Wynn For Mary ran a 79 Brisnet Speed Figure compared to 61 in her previous race. I think she can move forward off of that effort. Of course 5k claimers for older non-winners of two don't exactly possess perfect choices. I generally shy away from low % trainers and jockeys, but this is Mountaineer and I didn't see a Pletcher or Dutrow entry, so I'll chance it if the odds stay at the morning line 4-1 or better.

The 2nd choice would probably be the top except for the 9th post which is statistically more difficult to win from at this distance. The 9 horse, Flaming Victory has shown good recent form, but consistency isn't exactly a forte of cheap claiming horses, and at 6 years of age she isn't likely to show much improvement.

The 3rd and 4th choice are the 4, Cat's Got Class, and the 5,Alibi Baby. Not much to choose from between them. Both have two wins in 21 tries. Cat's Got Class has at least shown the ability to pass some horses where as Alibi Baby has been kind of a Merry-Go-Round horse. Both have at least raced above par for the course at least once in their careers which is more than you can say for most of the other contestants.

Well, whatever you do, good luck and enjoy the race. I'll be back next week with more stakes races to ponder over

Summit Of Speed and PH Picks for July 11

2009-07-11T04:57:00.000-07:00

Another Saturday, another day of big stakes and small wagers. Last week was a good one, let's go for two in a row. Starting with the Public Handicapper races for today.

1 3/8 Mile (Inner Turf) Man O War G1 Race 7 at Belmont Park

Gio Ponti
5-2
4-1
Midships
4-1
6-1
Quijano
9-2
7-1
Dancing Forever
5-1
8-1
Shapes up to be a competitive race in which any of 6 horses has a legit shot. Someone will need a good trip. Homefield advantage goes to Gio Ponti with Ramon Dominquez aboard. GP comes off a G1 win in the Manhattan and is 3 for 4 over the course. He is stretching out an extra furlong for the first time, but I don't think that will be a problem. The hot horse is Midships coming off 3 straight grade wins. Figure pattern suggests Midships may not have enough to win this race. German bred Quijano is 6 for 6 at the distance and a Group 1 winner at Milan. The gelding just missed at the Northern Dancer G1 last year at Woodbine and comes back to the states for another go. Quijano will be my PH pick. Dancing Forever comes back 2nd off layoff from a good Breeder's Cup Turf effort. Last race was clearly a tune up for bigger things, and this may be it. You can also throw Grand Courturier and Marsh Side into the mix as well, but you have to narrow it down somehow, and sometimes hard decisions have to be made.

1 Mile Turf Battlefield Stakes 70k Monmouth PP 4:20

#8 Get Serious
5-2
4-1
#9 Jet Propulsion
4-1
6-1
#6 Independent George
9-2
7-1
#3 Steve's Double
5-1
8-1
Get Serious is our horse for the course with 4 wins in 6 tries including a similar type race 2 back. Get Serious along with Jet Propulsion will both be aiming to set the early fractions and Get Serious has the advantage of being inside JP. Truth is, this race is set up nicely for a closer such as Independent George who will be my PH selection. For Seinfeld fans Independent George is also the hunch play of the day. Steve's Double is coming off a long layoff, but has won richer races than this one and trainer Ronny Werner is 27% with a +ROI with layoffs of greater than 90 days. Elvis Trujillo in the irons doesn't hurt the chances either.

1 1/4 Mile (Turf) Arlington Handicap G3 6:40

#12 Cosmonaut
5-2
4-1
# 13 Thabazimbi
4-1
6-1
#9 Just As Well
9-2
7-1
#11 Stream Cat
5-1
8-1
One of the good things about the Arlington turf course at this distance is there does not appear to be any significant post position bias. This is a good thing as all my contenders for this race will be starting from the outer posts. Cosmonaut finds an easier spot to run than last out when he faced the likes of Gio Ponti and Marsh Side in the Manhattan. Cosmonaut is 2 for 4 on the course and 2 for 6 at the distance and has Robbie Albarado to guide him. #13 Thazimbi has been freshened after giving a good effort last out in the Louisville G3. Should like the distance and Leparoux is one of the best. Just As Well has yet to win this year, but showed some promise of improvement in his last two outings. Stream Cat won this race last year off a layoff and hopes to do the same again this year.

1 1/4 Mile Hollywood Gold Cup G1 7:30

Hol G1 AW
7:30
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Life Is Sweet
5-2
4-1
#4 Bullsbay
4-1
6-1
#5 Parading
9-2
7-1
#12 Informed
5-1
8-1
A very competitive race, but strengthwise I think it is lacking in strength for a G1 affair. I think this is why Shirreffs has chosen this spot to enter his 2nd best filly Life Is Sweet who was 2nd best to Zenyatta last out. Bullsbay will be a force to be reckoned with if he can run back to his recent performances. I could rank Parading higher, but not knowing how he will handle the cushion track caused me to downgrade him just a little. However, Kent Desormeaux knows how to ride and if he has any affinity for the course he'll be there in the mix at the end. Informed will be hampered by starting from the 12th post, but the G2 Californian winner is 3 for 7 on the track and should have a shot. Mast Track and Tres Borrachos are two other to keep in mind for Trifecta purposes.

And now for some Summit of Speed Racing

5f (Turf) Bob Umphrey Turf Spring Championship Handicap

#5 Mr. Nightlinger
5-2
4-1
#8 Possetothemax
9-2
7-1
#3 Midnight Ridge
4-1
6-1
#7 Ron Bob And Dave
5-1
8-1
If this race stays on the Turf, which as of this writing it appears that it will, than forget the odds line as it pertains to Mr. Nightlinger, he is clearly the best in the field. That being said, Possetothemax is 3 for 4 on CRC Turf including an overnight win last out and should be hanging around for at least a minor award. Midnight Ridge gets rider Paco Lopez aboard. He will be contending for the early lead, and Paco will have him hugging the rail all the way if he can. However the turns on the turf course are tight which is probably why runners in these 5f sprints at CRC generally do better starting from the outside. Finally I'll thrown Ron Bob And Dave shipping in from Hollywood to make his stakes debut. He's run some nice figures and could take advantage of an early speed duel. But really, all these other guys are racing for 2nd IMOH

I'm going to skip the 5f J J's Dream for 2yo fillies. It appears to be a major crap shoot in my opinion.

6 f Azalea Stakes G3 for 3yo fillies

#7 Kays and Jays
5-2
4-1
#3 Royal Card
9-2
7-1
#2 Underground
4-1
6-1
#9 First Passage
5-1
8-1
Kays and Jays turnsback after being overmatched in Hollywood and comes back to her preferred distance of 6f. Jose Lezcano gets the call. Royal Card is one of 3 Marty Wolfson entries in this race and has really awakened under Marty's tutelage after he took over from Todd Pletcher 2 races ago. Underground maybe taking a huge step up in only her 2nd race, but the Baffert trainee ran big first out, so why not. Mike Smith is the rider. First Passage is another Wolfson runner. She is a winner of an overnight 100k stakes last out, but the outside post could hinder her here.

6f Carry Back Stakes G2 for 3yo 3:56

#1 You Lucky Mann
5-2
4-1
#5 Not For Silver
9-2
7-1
#2 Ask Joe
4-1
6-1
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
You really have to watch the last race between You Lucky Mann and Prince Joshua to believe it. You Lucky Mann caught Prince Joshua on the turn into the stretch. Jockey Jermaine Bridgmohan appeared, to my eyes, to relax on YLM thinking it was over, but it was not as Prince Joshua fought back and JB had to get really busy to pull the race out. Still YLM is the better horse. Not For Silver comes out of a really nice race on Preakness day and may get the gold today. Ask Joe, the Fair Grounds Sugar Bowl winner, ridden by Paco Lopez is one that could benefit from a hot pace scenario. Prince Joshua showed a lot of courage last out and could prevail if he can avoid a bounce out of that race.

6f Princess Rooney Hdcp G1 for fillies and mares 3 up 4:26

#8 Dubai Majesty
5-2
4-1
#6 Game Face
9-2
7-1
#7 Keep The Peace
4-1
6-1
#1 Jessica Is Back
5-1
8-1
Well, I've been known to go off half-cocked before and I am doing so again. I don't think Indian Blessing will be at her best today. I was informed that Baffert excused the last effort due to a leg infection; however the infection didn't seem to effect her the first 5 furlongs of that race. In addition, I still don't like the last workout which was nearly 2 seconds off the previous. It was still good for most, but not a Baffert type work. So, I'm looking to Dubai Majesty who showed some guts in the Winning Colors last out. Jamie (don't blame me) Theriot has won on her before, and if I'm right about IB, he should win on her again. Todd Pletcher's Game Face is a consistent graded stakes runner and figures to do well here. Keep The Peace ran 3rd in DM's last race and would've finished, at least, 2nd had she not been impeded by Lady Chace in the stretch, so you got to give her a chance here. Finally, Wolfson runner Jessica Is Back has some speed, has the rail and Paco Lopez. She, Could, Go, All, The, Way!

6f Smile Sprint Handicap-G2 4:55

#4 Benny The Bull
5-2
4-1
#5 Eaton's Gift
9-2
7-1
#6 Yesbyjimminy
4-1
6-1
#2 How's Your Halo
5-1
8-1
Once again, forget the odds line for Benny. This one is Benny The Bull and the usual suspects. Eaton's Gift comes Turf to Dirt and 2nd off layoff for Dale Romans and Jose Lezcano. Then Yesbyjimminy and How's Your Halo round out the usual suspects. Ikigai, or maybe Icky Guy, does not appear to be the same horse that won the Mr. Prospector back in January at GulfStream.

Well that about covers it for today. You've certainly gotten more than your money's worth and I hope you find something in all of this that can be used to your benefit.

Big City Man No More

2009-07-07T16:42:00.000-07:00

I went to the Bloodhorse.com to see if I could find an explanation for Indian Blessing's poor performance last out when the coincidence of coincidences occurred. Big City Man winner of this year's Dubai Golden Shaheen, in which Indian Blessing finished 2nd, died July 5th of a strangulated cecum. Apparently he showed signs of distress following his workout, was treated for colic and eventually taken to the clinic where surgery was performed and the ailment discovered. Read the full story here https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51550/big-city-man-dies-of-strangulated-cecum.

Meanwhile, watching the last race on Indian Blessing, I have to question her soundness. In case your wondering about my sudden interest in Indian Blessing, it is due to the Summit of Speed and the G1 Princess Rooney Handicap which will be run at CRC on Saturday.

When I saw Indian Blessing was entered my first reaction was, "One race down." However, after further perusal of the form I began to wonder. Knowing that G1 type horses often dog it somewhat when coming back after rest, I found the last result of Indian Blessing's to be a puzzle all the same. Maybe she loses in a Grade 2 or even 3 race, but an overnight stakes? The comment reads,"weakened final furlong"

I watched the race and Indian Blessing appeared to be running along fine and seemed sure to catch the front running Coco Belle when she basically just ran out of gas.

Add to this her workouts. Bob Baffert works his horses fast. This is well known. On June 30 Indian Blessing runs a 4f bullet in 0:46 flat. July 6 over the same surface and distance its 48 and fifth. Baffert can't be happy about that. Indian Blessing has been heavily favored in at least her last 10 races. She may be a huge bet against this Saturday if heavily favored again.

Mid-Term Report

2009-07-05T04:41:00.000-07:00

Well, really its a 3/4 term report as 3 of the 4 races are in the books for this week. Some comments on the races so far.

United Nations Hdcp.

What the Hell was the jockey colony thinking in allowing Presious Passion an uncontested 20 length lead within the first quarter of the race! Then along the backstretch, nobody was making up any ground on Presious Passion. Maybe they couldn't ,or maybe they weren't trying yet. At any rate, by the time they did start closing the gap, it was obvious they would not catch him.

As you know, I did not have Presious Passion picked to win; however, this particular scenario is not exactly what I had envisioned. I'm not shocked the horse won. There is no denying Presious Passion is one of the leading grass horses running right now. On the bright side, the German-bred Lauro managed to be second best for some Weasel vindication. And I don't mind getting beat by Elvis Trujillo who is an old Calder favorite and deserves to do well.

Firecracker Hdcp.

In this race we got the winner right, Mr. Sydney. No great feat there. The biggest surprise to me is that he paid 2-1 as I thought he might go a little lower. The Weasel play in this race was Tizdejavu at 9-1. Placed 2nd at the 3/4 pole, it looked as if there was a possibility he could move forward and go on to win, but he flattened out and was not a factor coming home.

Suburban Hdcp.

The Weasel managed to get this one right with the top two finishers albeit in the wrong order. That's OK as the Weasel play in this race was Dry Martini at 10-1. I do hope you got that one. The funny thing was that originally I had made Dry Martini the top choice, but, upon further thought put Asiatic Boy on top. That's what you get for thinking too much.

That leaves todays American Oaks from Hollywood. Beyond Gozzip Girl, I don't have a very good feel for this race. Take that under advisement if you use any of my opinions in your own handicapping decisions.

A word about the Handicapping the Handicapper project. I am approaching the idea in two ways at the moment. The ways have been chosen largely based on convenience. I have been following the betting pool selections for Calder Race Course since I play a lot of races there. One thing I've learned is that you play against the favorite in claiming races at your own peril at Calder as the Collective gets these right at about a 50% clip since I've been paying attention. The Collective is 37% accurate on the top choice in Maiden Claiming events. I think most of us would like to boast of those types of percentages. I know I would.

I don't have enough entries in other racing classifications yet for any meaningful numbers, but will update you as they come available. I am playing the Collective odds on the Maiden Claiming races as those are typically the last races I handicap on any card due to time constraints. Yesterday's card had 3 Maiden Claiming races. One race was a pass with no overlays, the 2nd race I played the 4th choice and lost. I should've played the 3rd choice, but the odds changed on me between laying the bet and the start of the race. I wait as long as I can and try to make the bet with 0 MTP as they're loading if I can. I can't help what happens after that. As it turns out, the 3rd choice won paying a nice 8-1 price. Finally got a winner betting a 2-1 favorite, actually needed 5-2, but again.....

That's a constant problem when one's play is dependent on the odds. It seems like a problem that could be solved by the data providers if they chose to do so. Friday, I bet a horse at 7-1, the minimum I required to bet the horse, at 0 MTP. By the time I got back to my seat, a five second walk, the odds had dropped to 5-1. The odds dropped 2 more ticks to 4-1 after the race had started. Is the tote system really that slow or is there some past posting going on here? Either way, it does make life difficult for a handicapper who's decisions are based odds and not selections.

Ok that's it for today. Don't forget to play the HANA race at Hollywood today (Race 8).

4th of July Star Spangled PH and HANA picks

2009-07-04T05:38:00.000-07:00

All right then! Back for another week of making a public fool of myself. Last week wasn't too bad. Can't say I didn't warn you about Mary's Follies in the Boiling Springs at Monmouth. Too bad the price didn't justify the risk there. Had a straight chalky winner in Minnesota when the race was moved off the turf and Si Si Mon Amie scratched making Mizzcan'tbewrong the odds on favorite. Got beat in the other two races by longshots that really just didn't figure. Maneke just got nipped at the wire and the Colonial Downs race was won by horse ridden by Rosemary Homeister, Jr. Rosie used to ride a lot down here at Calder. She is a competent journeyman jockey, but she never gets the really good horses in the big races. However, every once in a while she'll pull one off for you. You just have to wait a long time for those every once in a whiles.

So here are this week's selections and analysis. Good luck

1 3/8 Mile (Turf) G1 United Nations Stakes Monmouth

MTH R10 G1
5:20
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#5 Court Vision
4-1
6-1
#6 Lauro
9-2
7-1
#1 Banrock
5-1
8-1
It almost looks like a rematch of the Monmouth race 3 weeks ago with many of the same players. The difference maker is going to be the distance. Presious Passion barely held off Banrock to win. I don't think Elvis will be able to stretch that horse out another 2 furlongs against this crowd, but I've been wrong before. #2 Strike A Deal has been the distance before and sits near the pace which should help keep him out of trouble and ready to move when the time comes. #5 Court Vision has never gone the distance but is too classy a horse to pass on if the price is right. #6 Lauro could be this week's Mary's Follies. 15-1 in the ML I've been reading a lot recently about the quality and stamina of German breds. Lauro has 2 wins and 3 places in 5 tries at this distance #1 Banrock is also a winner at the distance. Just missed last out and I think the extra distance will help. Only issue is that Joe Bravo is no Kent Desormeaux.

1 Mile (Turf) Firecracker Hdcp. G2 Churchill Downs

CD R10 G2
5:29
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Mr. Sidney
5-2
4-1
#7 Tizdejavu
4-1
6-1
#4 Thorn Song
9-2
7-1
#2 Seaspeak
5-1
8-1
#5 Mr. Sidney is back home on the KY bluegrass coming off a poor effort in the G1 Met HDCP at Belmont. Look for a rebound back on the grass with KD in the irons. Mr. Sidney is 3 for 3 at the distance on grass and a G1 winner. #7 Tizdejavu is the 3 for 3 horse for course and has 4 wins and 1 show in 5 races on the grass. A G2 winner as a 3yo is making only his 2nd start this year.#4 Thornsong will be the horse to catch, but the 9-5 ML fave will have to fend off many contenders for that early lead. So the question becomes how much will he have left for the late runners. Probably not enough is my guess. #2 Seaspeak is a 2 time G3 winner looking to make that next step forward. Broke his maiden at CD and Albarado dominates at CD so certainly worth a look at the ML of 8-1

1 1/4 Mile Suburban Hdcp. G2 Belmont

Bel R10 G2
5:49
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Asiatic Boy
5-2
4-1
#3 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#2 Dry Martini
9-2
7-1
#8 Cool Coal Man
5-1
8-1
Cool Coal Man and the hardest working stakes horse in racing, Finallymadeit, guarantee an honest pace in this race which should perfectly suit the likes of Asiatic Boy who is coming out of a 2nd place finish in the S. Foster Hdcp. After missing that one by a gaining length, a 2nd go in the States with lasix and Alan Garcia, coupled with a favorable pace scenario should make this a victory ride for the Sheik. #3 It's A Bird is in great condition and will be hanging just off the pace setters. Look for him to get the lead at some point in the stretch and then try to hold off the closing Asiatic Boy and the next contender #2 Dry Martini. Dry Martini is a solid G3 runner who will also benefit from honest fractions. He may not be good enough for these, but with a little luck, you never know. #8 Cool Coal Man will need to shake loose of Finallymadeit and slow down the race to have any real chance. I don't think it will happen, but would play it for a big price.

1 1/4 Mile American Oaks G1 Hollywood

Hol R8 G1
Sunday
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#1 Gozzip Girl
5-2
4-1
#11 The Best Day Ever
4-1
6-1
#14 Mrs Kipling
9-2
7-1
#7 Acting Lady
5-1
8-1
14 horses in and 2 more waiting to go, but I could never get pass Gozzip Girl in my figuring. She just looks to good. #11 The Best Day Ever is an improving 3yo filly and could give her a run #14 Mrs Kipling certainly looks good enough to win here, but I don't know about the post position #7 Acting Lady has won a big race here before and has beaten the 3rd choice and must be considered. Other considerations are Well Monied and Magical Affair, but you can't bet 'em all. Or can you?

One last thing. Remember that today is the day we celebrate our Independence from an over bearing and controlling government, not our dependence on an ever growing and liberty infringing cradle to grave (and the faster the better, it seems) nanny state.

Public Handicapper and HANA selections for June 27

2009-06-27T06:34:00.000-07:00

I'm back. And I have some interesting races to talk about today. If my odds line looks peculiar to you, read the previous article as I am trying something novel and different. If it works out, then maybe I too, your humble Chalk Eating Weasel, can join the pantheon of great handicapping authors.

Now for the races.

Colonial Da Hoss Stakes 50k Inner Turf for 3up

Colonial R9
4:39

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Auction Watch
4-1
6-1
#5 Jungle Fighter
7-2
5-1
#7 Baltimore Bob
7-2
5-1
#10 Frisky Thunder
6-1
9-1
#2 Auction Watch comes off a 3 digit (Brisnet) Opt Claiming win is 2 for 2 at the distance and 5 for 9 on the sod. Running style is suited for the course and Sheldon Russell is familiar with grounds so look for a good trip. #5 Jungle Fighter is 2 for 2 over CNL turf. This horse for the course is coming 2nd off layoff and should be a factor if he can regain his previous form. #7 Baltimore Bob may be the best of the group, but when the going gets tough, he always seems to come up short. #10 Frisky Thunder should be able to set the early pace and if he is allowed to relax may go all the way. The only other Quirin "E" horse is just not as fast. FT could steal the race for a price.

Monmouth Boiling Springs Stakes G3 150k Turf 3yo fillies

Monmouth R9
4:50

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#5 Bluegrass Princess
4-1
6-1
#3 My Magic Moment
7-2
5-1
#2 Platinum Girl
7-2
5-1
#1 Mary's Follies
6-1
9-1
#5 BP finally finds a graded event without Gozzip Girl to run in. The McLaughlin trainee has been ITM last 4 out and should find the winner's circle with Eddie Castro this time. #3 MMM is a stakes winner and may be ready to deny BP that first win on the Turf. Thomas Albertrani is 25% winner with +ROI in Graded events and Elvis Trujillo is no stranger to the winner's circle in big races. #2 PG wired the field in May, but has never won at this distance in 3 tries. Will have to contend again with pressure from Sandi's Ready. Should point out that PG beat MMM last out. #1 Has nothing really going for her except that she looks to be the type of improving 3yo that one should be on the look out for in these types of races.

The HANA Race of the week

Arlington 5f turf Clm 35k for 3 up

#8 Maneke
4-1
6-1
#1 Mitigation
7-2
5-1
#6 Boots Are Walking
7-2
5-1
#11 The Nth Degree
6-1
9-1
#8 Won at this level and distance 2 back on the main track and is a proven commodity on Turf and the distance. Drops back after a good effort in an Optional Claiming event. #1 Mitigation drops 1 level after finishing 3/4 lengths behind next out winner. Has the ability to win here. #6 BAW is the horse for course with 3 wins in 7 tries. He could catch the top choice with a little luck. #11 could be the longshot special of the day. 12/1 in the ML the 8yo gelding gets some much needed class relief after running against much better and a nice rider upgrade with E. T. Baird.

Canterbury Minnesota H.B.P.A Mile (Turf) fillies and mares 3 up

Canterbury R8
6:03

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#10 Si Si Mon Amie
4-1
6-1
#6 Mizzcan'tbewrong
7-2
5-1
#1 Quiet Queen
7-2
5-1
#5 Lindsey's Wish
6-1
9-1
#10 Si Si Mon Amie easily looks to be the one to beat here; however I doubt there will be anything approaching the 4/1 ML here. #6 Mizzcan'tbewrong along with Fabulous Babe should be setting the early fraction, but that running style doesn't seem to work well here. #1 Quiet Queen looks to be on the improve lately and has won at this level before could get there if the trend continues. #5 Lindsey's Wish comes out of a 3rd place finish at PRM against similar. Kelly Von Hemel is 24% +ROI going Dirt to Turf.

Prarie Meadows Cornhusker G2 9 furlongs 3 up (doubt I'll be awake for this one)

Prarie Meadows R9
11:17
Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 My Pal Charlie
4-1
6-1
#5 Shadowbdancing
7-2
5-1
#6 Wayzata Bay
7-2
5-1
#8 Jonesboro
6-1
9-1
#2 MPC along with Jonesboro, appears to be the class of the field, but the latter has never won at this distance so I'm giving the nod to MPC. #5 Shadowbdancing: going with some local talent for shots at the prize. #5 has had 3 digit Bris Figures last two out while going wire to wire. 3 for 4 at PRM and all 3 are stakes wins, looking to step up here. #6 WB was last years Cornhusker winner and hopes history will repeat after using the Jim Rasmussen Mem. H. as a tune up for the big race. #8 Jonesboro (class of '74 if your interested) is always in the thick of it and I expect nothing less here. But if you look at the 9f races, he always seems to hit the wall at this distance.

That's it for this week. As I said, please check out the previous article. I think a lot of readers may have missed it because the TBA Feed seemed to be hung up for a couple of days. I think you'll find it thought provoking, if nothing else.

Handicapping The Handicapper

2009-06-22T14:19:00.000-07:00

Firstly, my apologies for not posting the HANA and Public Handicappers picks this week. It was just one of those weeks and I didn't have the time to make the post. You didn't miss much with the PH races; however, I am sorry you missed the my only overlay out of 4 contenders in the 7th at Monmouth, Themanmythnlegend ridden by the stunning Shannon Uske, who rode a terrific race to guide Themanmythnlegend through some horrific traffic down the stretch and get her mount up in time, and trained by Lloyd Kromann. Themanmythnlegend paid 24.60 to win.

While driving down the street one recent day, I revealed to my lovely wife that I'd like to write a book sometime before I pass on to whatever awaits after this life. Because of my line of work, I am a published author in a few respected scientific journals. Although I must admit that other people did the writing. That is the way it works in the scientific world where the principle investigator usually does the writing and gives co-authorship to others who contributed in some way to the generating of the published work.

My wife asked me what I would write about and I answered,"I don't really know, I just know I'd like to write a book, novel or something." Of course, she suggested I write a book on horse racing since that is how I spend most of my spare time. Unfortunately, I had to confess that there is not much new I could really introduce on the subject since nearly all of what I have learned has come from the writings of others on the topic. In that respect, I can only parrot those who have written before me. What would be the point?

Now, for those 2 of you who have followed this blog from the beginning, you know that I am big on creating an odds line on my favorite contender for any race I contemplate playing. This is not my creation but is promoted by such racing-author luminaries as Barry Meadow, Mark Cramer, and Steve Fiero. I love their books and highly recommend each and everyone of them.

However, one major flaw I find in all of these books is that while each of them promote the making of an odds line for contenders, or even the entire field, in a race, each of them come up short in the how to exactly make an accurate odds line. Steve Fiero does offer a handy chart to help set up an odds line for 3 and 4 contender races where your contenders are assigned an overall probability of 80% to win the race. Mark Cramer in his book, "The Odds On Your Side" makes an attempt at giving a more defined process of creating an odds line, but it still requires that you assign a % value of one or more factors which will influence the outcome of the race and how each horse will either benefit or be disadvantaged by such factors. In the end, it is no less subjective than any other method of assigning an odds line.

Before going any further, let me explain to those who may not know that odds are simply another way of stating the probability of an event occurring. In our case, a particular horse winning the race. I typically think in terms of probabilities rather than odds because that is how my mind has been trained for many years; however, converting probabilities to odds is a simple mathematic operation. For instance, if you believe a horse has a 25% chance of winning the race the odds are 3-1. The conversion is simple: 1/0.25 = 4 then 4-1 =3 and, voila, 3-1 is the odds of your 25% chance.

Calculating odds from probabilities is a simple process. Assigning probabilities is not so simple. There are many factors and a high degree of randomness in any race. As a handicapper, we have to weigh every factor against the other in an attempt to decipher the horses most deserving of being considered contenders in the race. Then, if you are concerned with getting a fair price for your investment, you have to make your best guess as to what the proper odds for each contender may be. And a guess is just what it is.

There are computer programs available that will do this guessing for you. Check out Brisnet.com where you can choose from several free downloads. I tried the Allways program a few times a couple of years ago. Wasn't really all that impressed. But the truth is, any program you use to choose contenders is basically guessing. Someone had to write the program, and, in the writing of the program, had to weigh various performance and statistical factors so that the program can make a decision and assign a probability. A question you should ask yourself is how the programmer arrived at the different weightings? Perhaps the programmer used a very strict statistical method to arrive at the weightings. Perhaps the programmer used some trial and error with a lot of back testing to arrive at the ratings. Remember past performance is no guarantee of future returns.

Computers are marvelous inventions and most excellent at crunching numbers. We use computers to send spacecraft to Mars and beyond. Some computers are capable of defeating the best human chess players. But I doubt there will ever be a computer that can out handicap a good horseplayer. Computers are not so good with intangibles. What computer predicted that Dunkirk was going to set the pace in the Belmont Stakes? Maybe Todd Pletcher's. Maybe Mr. Pletcher has a program that calculated the best chance Dunkirk had to win the race was to surprise everyone and go to the front. Somehow I doubt it. If you have a computer program that consistently keeps you ahead of the game I want to know about it. Not that I would use it, because that would take all the fun out of the game.

So the question becomes, if all our best efforts at making an odds line amount to mere guess work, then where can we find hard numbers from which to make an odds line. I'm here to suggest that one has to look no further than one's own performance to make an odds line. Handicap the handicappper.

Yes you read correctly. Keep a record of how often your top choice, 2nd choice, 3rd, 4th, etc. win and base your odds on the winning percentage of each. For instance, if you are a very good handicapper and your top choice wins 33% of the time than you can make the odds for that choice 2-1. If I had the odds at 2-1, then I would ask for 3-1 before playing, but you can make that decision for yourself.

Its important while doing this to keep your records as close to being a reflection of your current performance as possible. After all, unless you are Super Handicapper you go through hot streaks and cold streaks just as I do. If you can track your performance in such a way then you would be able to bet more at lower odds when hot and less at higher odds when chilly maximizing the return on your investment. For this purpose, I recommend using a 30 race moving average.

Creating a moving average is simple. Once you add a result at the end of a series, remove the result at the beginning of the series. For example, when I add result 31 to my records, I remove result number 1 from the average. When result number 32 is added, then result number 2 is removed and on and on and on.

Now the number 30 for the moving average was not pulled out of thin air. For statistical purposes 30 events is usually considered significant for giving reliable data. One drawback of using a moving average is that it is a lagging statistic. If we used, for instance, a 60 race moving average, it may be a better overall indication of our handicapping ability, but it would be less reflective of our current performance.

Now the real beauty of this methodology is that you can conceivably handicap an entire race card without ever looking at a past performance. Does your local newspaper have a handicapper? You could handicap how well he does with his picks. Calculate odds for each selection and play off the local tout's picks.

Another possibility is to handicap how well the masses are at picking winners. Check out the results charts for any track you are interested in and calculate how often the first, second, third and fourth choices come in. If you choose the to handicap masses, I suggest you divide the races into logical divisions such as dirt and turf, sprints and routes, maiden claimers and stakes races, etc. The choices are nearly limitless.

Now in the interest of full disclosure, I have to admit that I really have not tried this out on anything but my own performance. And the moving average thing, that's just something that I came up with as I was brainstorming the idea. But, at least, using this method, you have something concrete to base your line on. I don't know about you but this idea makes perfect sense to me. On the other hand, perhaps this will merely qualify as another whacky betting method. There is one way to find out. Run the numbers.

I'll be back in a day or two with my HANA and PH picks for Saturday. The HANA race will be the 9th at Arlington Park. A 5 furlong Turf Sprint, one of my favorites.

Summit of Speed Preview

2009-06-13T08:34:00.000-07:00

Back again after taking a licking on Belmont Day. I've tried to update the spreadsheet that shows my progress, but it is not functioning for me at the moment. I'll go back later. Long story short, I wagered on 4 of the 6 races passing the True North and the Acorn Stakes. Summer Bird was the near miss of the day. If only Charitable Man would have dropped one more tick to 4-1 than I would've had the win and exacta! Did manage the superfecta box. Too bad I didn't play it.

Ok, today's another day. Calder Race Course has 5 stakes races scheduled for its Summit of Speed preview. The HANA race of the week is the 200k Monmouth Stakes for 3 and up and was a fun race to handicap. Let's hope its a fun race to cash in on.

The HANA race is also one of the Public Handicapper races as well. 2 of those races are at Churchill, the Stephen Foster with Einstein running and the Regret Stakes. Finally, its the nightcap, for us East Coasters at Hollywood Park with the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up.

So without further ado.

Race 3 at CRC: Blazing Sword Stakes, 55k on Turf for 3 and up.

CRC Race 3
1:44
#1 Mambo Meister
3-2
5-2
#10 Vanquisher
7-2
5-1
#4 Motovato
9-2
7-1

#1 Winner last out appears to be the best here #10 Non Graded stakes winnner is 50% ITM on Turf #4 Turf debut for Motovato has B rated Turf sire and is in good form. Include no.'s 6, 8, 9 for trifecta

Race 8 at Calder. The Unbridled Stakes 100k, 6f for 3 year olds. This race is a 4 horse affair not likely to offer value, but maybe a good free space for the pick 4.

CRC Race 8
4:16

#2 You Luckie Mann
1-1
3-2
#4 Prince Joshua
5-1
8-1
#3 Bidham
6-1
9-1

#2 Wolfson HFC and obvious top choice. #4 Prince Joshua turnsback in distance and could possibly be a good separator in the P4 as everyone will likely single the 2. #3 improving 3yo finished just behind 2nd choice last out

Race 9 at CRC is the 100k Leave Me Alone Stakes for 3yo fillies.

CRC Race 9
4:42
#7 Mine All Mine
7-5
2-1
#3 First Passage
7-2
5-1
#1Donttellmewhattodo
9-2
7-1

#7 finished 2nd to the 3 last out. 2nd off layoff should move forward off that race for 50% trainer Wesley Ward. Ward/Lopez was deadly combo last year. #3 stumbled at the start and won anyway would not be a shocker #1 Doug O'Neill shipper gets good post and looks to be getting better each race.

To keep the races in chronological order, we'll move up the coast to Monmouth for the 200k Monmouth Stakes, Turf for 3 and up. Note Richard's Kid is already a scratch.

MTH Race 9
4:50

#5 Strike A Deal
5-2
4-1
#1 Proudinsky
3-1
9-2
#7 Presious Passion
6-1
9-1
#6 Buddy's Home
6-1
9-1
Grand Couturier, 1st since Breeder's Cup is play against. Most likely tuning up for something bigger down the road #5 may want a little more distance, but has been running great lately. #1 ran into A class horses last out gets a little easier field here #7 Proven G2 horse and Elvis is a leading rider at MTH #6 2 for 3 on course won G3 2 back at GP

Then right back to CRC for Race 10 the 75k U Can do It Hdcp for Fillies and Mares 3 and up

CRC Race 10
5:08

#1 Marina Ballerina
6-5
9-5
#3 Jessica Is Back
4-1
6-1
#4 Orinoquia
5-1
8-1

#1 Won Coolair last out despite a very troubled trip. Looks clearly the best here and a P4 single. #3 Wolfson entry with go to rider Jermaine Bridgmohan aboard could be a threat #4 3rd off the layoff finished just a neck behind 2nd choice could turn the tables.

Race 10 Churchill G1 Stephen Foster Hdcp.

CD Race 10
5:29

#3 Einstein
3-1
9-2
#6 Bullsbay
7-2
5-1
#5 Researcher
9-2
7-1
#7 Asiatic Boy
6-1
9-1
#3 how can you pick against Einstein. A horse for any course considered better on grass but can hold his own with the best on dirt. #6 In great current form is 3 for 3 on the track and will have plenty of pace to run at. #5 I watched his last race at Charlestown and it was easier that it looked on paper. If the CT track record holder can transfer his form to CD, he'll be a force to be reckoned with. #7 is the wild card in this race not looking good enough to love and too good looking to ignore. Gets first lasix and I like the McLaughlin/Garcia combo

Rushing back to Calder for race 11 the 75k Ponche Hdcp for 3 and up.

CRC Race 11
5:34

#5 Yesbyjimminy
2-1
3-1
#2 Americanrevolution
5-2
4-1
#7 How's Your Halo
4-1
6-1

#5 has the proven ability to win this level race over the course, but the 6 yo gelding, #2, is 4 for 4 over the track and should be a threat. #7 is another Calder veteran who gets points for consistency. If the top two falter 7 will pick it up.

Race 11 The G3 Regret Stakes for 3yo Fillies. Note Excelente and Kiss Mine are scratched.

CD Race 11
5:58

#6 Oculuna
3-1
7-2
#10 Prytania
7-2
5-1
#5 Banker's Choice
4-1
6-1
#9 Keertana
6-1
9-1
#6 should set the pace in a paceless race and could run away if allowed to set easy early fractions. #10 will need some pace to run out. #5 Finished 3rd last out against better #9 Winner Alwn1x last out passed 4 horses down stretch

Finally out to the left coast for the Hollywood night cap the Grade 2 Californian Stakes for 3 and up

HOL Race 9
8:08

#2 Mast Track
3-1
9-2
#6 Song of Navaronne
7-2
5-1
#3 Rail Trip
9-2
7-1
#8 Ball Four
5-1
8-1
#2 Comes back to site of G1 win after a 2 month freshening. #6 Close on the 2's heels is #6 who finished a half length behind Its a Bird and Jonesboro at Lonestar. Main question is the surface. Pedigree is nothing special for AW surfaces. #3 Been watching this one all year. Speed to spare but the 8 horse is cut from the same cloth so it will be interesting to see if these two get suicidal on the front end or not.

My apologies for the less than detailed notes. As you can tell by my lack of posting and the time of this post, its been a hectic week.

Good Luck and enjoy the races.

Belmont Day!

2009-06-06T04:22:00.000-07:00

Back to the races for me. Of course its Belmont Stakes day so there is a lot of excitement being generated. I'll be attending the races at Calder although I will likely run out of steam and come home to watch the big race on television.

Its a strange day at Calder with only one minor stakes race being run on the turf. The problem is, you think its been raining in New York, you've never seen anything like the gully washers we get here in Florida. I'm talking inches per hour. Currently, the sky is clear and cloudless, but we have had nearly non-stop afternoon rain for the last 2 weeks. I am very doubtful that Calder will run on the turf course today. At best they will only run the 11th race on the grass if it rains no more today. This makes handicapping all the races scheduled for turf near impossible because there is no way to know who is going to run on what surface until it is announced. As of this writing, it has not been announced.

The weather for New York is supposed to be perfect today. It will be interesting to see how much water the main track retains and how the surface will run. Yesterday the rail seemed like a conveyor belt and no one was making up any ground on the middle part of the track. The turf course will likely be pretty soggy, but I believe they will run on it as long as there is no more
rain and the jockeys don't protest too much.

Of course, I do have decisions on the races. The notes will be brief if any because I've been very busy this past week. Lucky for me, Public Handicapper made races 8, 9, 10, and 11 there races for the week so I was at least able to kill two birds with one stone as the cliche goes. You will also get two bonus races from Belmont so let's get started.

Race 6 is the True North Hdcp--G2 contested at 6f for 3up

#1 Benny The Bull
2-1
3-1
#6 Fabulous Strike
5-2
4-1
#3 Two Step Salsa
4-1
6-1

Benny The Bull has been off for 10 months. I saw him run his last race here at CRC. I thought I had heard or read that he was being retired to stud shortly after that race due to some kind of minor injury. I guess IEAH decided the stud market was not as strong as they would've liked this year. Please, no cards or letters on this one. Maybe I was mistaken. At any rate, 10 months is a long time off, but I still think BTB is the best sprinter in the country if he remains his old self. The way I see it, the cheap speed in the race, Sixthirteen, will force the stalkers to chase him faster than they would like setting the race up perfectly for Benny's big closing drive. Desert Key will be a factor in that scenario and may overcome it. But despite being right there his last 4 times out, he has not been able to get under the wire first for the big one. Bad case of 2nditis going on here. Two Step Salsa, fresh back from two UAE wins doesn't seem to have that problem and is 3 for 3 at the distance. Looks like an interesting race.

Race 7 Just A Game Stakes--G1 1mile on the grass for F and M 3up

#5 Forever Together
2-1
3-1
#1 Carribean Sunset
9-2
7-1
#4 I Lost My Choo
5-1
8-1
#3 Captain's Lover
6-1
9-1

This race reminded me alot of last weeks McKayMacKellan except with better horses. I think Forever Together is the standout. Flip a coin for the rest of the field. I found Carribean Sunset, Group 3 winner in Ireland, and Captain's Lover, Group 3 winner at Longchamp, to be intruiging because of their success on soft turf which I suspect we will have today. The knock against Captain's Lover will be the 8 month layoff or she would be the 2nd choice.

Race 8 Woody Stephens Stakes--G2 For 3 year olds

1/1A Regal Ranson/Everyday Heroes
3-1
9-2
#8 Hull
7-2
5-1
#2 This Ones For Phil
9-2
7-1
#6 Hello Broadway
6-1
9-1

I like the entry and its one of those rare occassions where I don't really care which or if both horses run, I still like the entry. Regal Ransom is coming off a perfect turnback set-up. One of my favorite angles. Its just too bad that, despite his 8th place finish, he is still likely to see alot of action. Hull is unbeaten in 3 tries including the G3 Derby Trial at Churchill. Tries to move to the next level. This Ones For Phil has made a believer out of me and turnsback to a distance that will be more to his liking. Hello Broadway ran a strange race last out setting impossible early fractions and fading to 4th behind Charitable Man, Imperial Council and Brave Victory. Barclay Tagg played dumb in an interview after the race suggesting that someday maybe they'd be able to get inside that horse's head. Now he's taking the blinkers back off and changing riders to Ramon Dominguez who has won at a 29% clip riding for Tagg over the last 60 days. Hmmmmm.

Race 9 Acorn Stakes--G1 I mile for Fillies 3yo.

#8 Justwhistledixie
5-2
4-1
#7 Dream Play
3-1
7-2
#5 Doremifasollatido
6-1
9-1
#1 Cassanova Move
6-1
9-1

Before scratching from the Ky Oaks, Justwhistledixie was the only horse I thought had the slightest chance of beating Rachel Alexandra. A bullet w/o over the track and an off/on figure pattern suggesting "on" for this race with Leparoux in the irons sounds like a winner to me. Dream Play has run 3 successive good races and can certainly beat the top choice which is why the odds for the fave are so tepid. I just put Doremifasollatido in here because I want to hear the track announcer call her name. Also, she is 2 of 4 over the track and 4 times in the money here. A G2 stakes winner coming 2nd off the layoff should be ready. Cassanova Move has finished 2nd or 3rd to the favorite 3 times. Is this the race where she moves forward? I don't know, but take a shot if she's a long price.

Race 10 Woodford Reserve Manhattan Hdcp--G1 1 1/4 mile on turf for 3 up

#1 Court Vision
3-1
9-2
#5 Gio Ponti
7-2
5-1
#12 Cowboy Cal
4-1
6-1
#2 Champs Elysees
5-1
8-1

Court Vision is a G1 winner, has won on the course, and has Ramon Dominguez winning at a 25% clip in Turf races on his back. Gio Ponti is just a horse that likes to win, 6 for 11 lifetime, and is 2 for 3 over the Belmont course. Cowboy Cal is a horse very capable of beating any of these in this competitive field including G1 winner Champs Elysees who gets the always dangerous Julian Lepaoux for the trip. A very competitive race that anyone of the four could win. Box the 0.10 cent superfecta on this one.

Now for the big one

Race 10 Belmont Stakes--G1 for 3 year olds.

#6 Charitable Man
3-1
9-2
#2 Dunkirk
7-2
5-1
#7 Mine That Bird
4-1
6-1
#4 Summer Bird
6-1
9-1

Charitable Man is rested 2 for 2 at Belmont, no worries about how he'll handle Big Sandy, and was pointed to this race after the Bluegrass Stakes. Dunkirk got mobbed in the Derby and had a bent shoe to show for his efforts. His quick turn of foot should put him in good position to be first under the wire. Mine That Bird has made me a believer; however, in the span of 5 weeks this horse has been vanned from New Mexico to New York and run in two difficult races along the way. Woolley says he's looking good and handling the track well, but I have my doubts about how much may be left in the tank. Summer Bird gets a top tier rider change to Kent Desormeaux who, no doubt, will want to perform better this year than he did in last year's race on Big Brown. Summer Bird came straight to Belmont from the Derby and, like Charitable Man and Dunkirk, should be fresh for the race. Just the type of longshot that so often wins this affair.

So there you have it. Good luck to you and safe trips for all the horses and riders.

Mea Culpa

2009-06-02T15:53:00.000-07:00

Back for a little look at how the picks did last Saturday, but first a word about the condition of Rene Douglas. I thought I had heard reported on TVG that a full recovery is expected for Rene Douglas. I have not been able to confirm that from any other source. Hence, I believe that I misheard whatever was said about his condition. If my error has caused anyone distress, my bad. Still, let's hope my error turns out to be correct.

I am getting so inundated with punditry regarding the Belmont that I'm not sure I can maintain my objectivity in approaching the race. I may have to pass the race on that basis alone. No doubt the race will be a Public Handicapper race, so I'll have to take a shot for the contest. However, I am hearing so much about Summer Bird, Charitable Man, Dunkirk, et.al. that it may all be too confuddled in my little head. The one horse that doesn't seem to be getting much pundit respect is Mine That Bird. Most pundits seem to think he's beatable here, and their probably right as far as it goes. Be that as it may, I will look at the pp's once they're out and, of course, let you know what I think about the race. I just worry that it will not be my opinion.

Last Saturday was a good day for the Weasel as he had the winner in 2 of 4 races. Ironically, it was the other two races the Weasel actually cashed in on. The Weasel passed the the McKayMacKenna Stakes and the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes due to a lack of overlays.

Spring House was an easy choice in the Golden Gate Fields, and I felt the only horse that had a real chance to upset the 3 to 5 favorite was Yacht Spotter. However, I felt that Shem, starting from the inside post, would deny Yacht Spotter the opportunity to get loose and comfortable on the lead. I was wrong as Shem was content to sit 2 to 3 lengths off the leading Yacht Spotter for 6 furlongs before fading into oblivion. Perhaps Shem was trying and just wasn't fast enough, I dunno. Still, even with the easy lead Spring House was too much for the rest of the field and Yacht Spotter at the end. A good race to pass.

The McKayMacKenna Stakes at Belmont is a little more frustrating. True, I had the winner, and had I followed my usual custom of key boxing my win bet with the other contenders I'd have had a decent exacta as well. And if I had gone so far as to fashion some sort of trifecta keying on the win choice...well you get where I'm going here as I had the top three finishers with only La Hernanda disappointing. This is where the betting line comes in and I have to question if my line was accurate. 5-2 really isn't a bad price to get on a favorite. Officially the final price was 2.3-1 but Scolara sat at 5-2 for most of the time. This race was restricted to non winners of major stakes and was particularly competitive as a result. I still thought Scolara was a little bit of a stand out over the others so the question becomes, was I too cautious in making Scolara 2-1. According to the racetype stats available in the Brisnet Ultimate PP's the favorite wins this particular type race 25% of the time which equates to 3-1 in odds. Unfortunately, this particular statistic is only based on 4 races, so it is not a particularly strong number to use. For instance, if a similar race is carded this Saturday the stat would say the favorite wins 40% of the time equating to odds of 3-2. Quite a difference.

So there is the conundrum. You can see by my picks that I'm not trying tout some wiseguy pick. No shouting,"COME SEE THE CHALK EATING WEASEL'S 20-1 MORTAL LOCK PICK OF THE DAY." My edge, at least I think it is my edge, is the ability to more accurately determine a horses probability of winning than the betting collective. Now, I'm not so arrogant as to think I'm smarter than the rest of the world. The crowd collectively gets it right for the most part. I just look for those little tremors in the force, to use a little Star Wars reference. So after all of this is said and done, I'm still not sure if my line for this race as accurate as it could've been.

I think I found a couple of tremors in the force in the Aristides and the Gamely stakes. In the Aristides, my favorite was Semaphore Man. The favoritism was based largely on his consistent performance over 3 different dirt surfaces: Oaklawn, Retama, and Fairgrounds. Reminded me of another recent Kelly Von Hemel stakes winner (remember Euphony?).

I was surprised Semaphore Man was not more heavily played, but at 6-1 he was a slam dunk for a wager and he almost pulled it off getting beat down the stretch by Bold Start. Luckily for me, I called an audible when I found out Cassoulet had been scratched and substituted Bold Start as a contender. I'd like to take credit for that piece of fancy footwork the the truth is I just substituted Public Handicapper's Carsoni's pick as he had posted it in the HANA group and the reasoning made sense to me. Thank's Carsoni! Following my custom of the exacta as place bet, the result was a winning wager for the race.

The other tremor in the force I found was Magical Fantasy in the Gamely Stakes. I honestly thought Black Mamba was the best horse in the race and Diamond Diva was definitely a horse for the course. But Magical Fantasy had beaten Black Mamba one race ago and was getting no respect at 6-1. Again, a slam dunk win wager. If only Diamond Diva could've held off Visit and completed the exacta.

Well, it's a little hard to be self critical when one was as on as I was last week. You really can learn more from your losses than your wins. However it is more fun to revel in wins. I would like to know what woke up Visit who so far has been nothing but an also ran in the States. Of course, Visit was still an also ran here, but showed a little spunk this time. I think, up until this race, that spunk has been lacking. Perhaps a horse on the improve that may be worth a closer look next race.

Ok, I also just brainstormed a betting strategy combining the Pick-3 with use of exactas, but I'll have to save that for another time.

See you for the Belmont

Jeff aka Chalk Eating Weasel

Hot Off The Press

2009-05-30T14:39:00.000-07:00

TVG reports a full recovery is expected for Rene Douglas.

In the PH 8th race at Belmont Scolara was a winner for me at 5/2. However, the race was a pass with no overlays. Unfortunate since the exacta was in play as well.

In the PH/HANA Aristides G3 at Churchill Semaphore Man did not disappoint going off at a surprising, to me, 5-1 just got beat by Bold Start. Fortunately for me, Bold Start was my substitute runner for the scratched Cassoulet, and I get the exacta as a consolation prize.

The next 2 races are at Golden Gate Fields at 7:27 and Hollywood at 8:08. Stay tuned and see how the Weasel does.

Phandcapper and HANA Pool Races: May 30

2009-05-30T06:13:00.000-07:00

Another Saturday and another installment on Public Handicapper and the HANA Pool race of the week.

By now the word is out that Rachel Alexandra will not run in the Belmont. I don't have much to add to that which has already been said elsewhere I'm sure. I do remember reading somewhere that Asmussen had said that she did not come out of the Preakness as well as they liked. I remember thinking she was looking tiredl towards the end of the race, but then after watching the replay, I thought perhaps I was mistaken with my initial impression. I'm so confused. All the same, the Belmont seems to be attracting a good field. Unfortunately, it appears Friesan Fire will also miss the Belmont. At least I won't have to burn anymore money on him for awhile.

And now for the Picks.

The first race on deck is the McKayMackenna S for F and M 3up which have not won an open sweepstakes on the turf in 2008 or 2009

I found this race to be a very competitive brain buster. In my mind Scolara is something of a stand out here, but after that its anybody's guess. In addition to my choices below, keep an eye on #9 Shadiyna who ran a real good race in an OC50kn2x last out which she might've won except for getting bumped before the wire.

Belmont R8
4:44

#6 Scolara
2-1
3-1
#2 La Hernanda
5-1
8-1
#10 Kristi With A K
5-1
8-1
#8 Pastel Gal
5-1
8-1
In what looks to be a very competitive race, #6 Scolara gets the favorite position based on previous stakes and grade 3 showing. After Scolara you can take your pick #2 La Hernanda comes off a 5 month layoff after beating open alw company in Tampa (note she was dq'ed and placed 2nd). Plenty of time to rest after achieving the top figure in the field #10 K with a K has only finished OTM once in 9 starts and is unbeaten in 2 tries on Belmont Turf. #8 Pastel Gal bested K with a K in a Jan. GP allowance.

The next race is the HANA Pool race. Lots of grumbling on the HANA message board about playing such a high profile track. Not from me. Sheesh, can't we all just get along? This race looks to be very competitive; however it is difficult to pick against Semaphore Man here. Though, as usual, I'll be letting the odds do my picking for me.

G3 Aristides for 3 up

Churchill R10
5:29

#6 Semaphore Man
5-2
4-1
#5 Sok Sok
3-1
9-2
#2 Cassoulet
6-1
9-1
#7 Premium Wine
6-1
9-1
#6 Semaphore Man never seems to have a bad race except when on artificial comes into race rested after Oaklawn Park G3 win. #5 Sok Sok is a 5 of 10 winner and 3 of 6 at the distance gets Asmussen's go to rider Shaun Bridgmohan. #2 Cassoulet looks to be on the improve and in good form and may surprise in this spot. #7 Premium Wine flashed alot of speed in NY last spring before going on the shelf for 8 months. Has been working regularly since early April and is the fastest of the group if he has regained his old form.

Moving out west to Golden Gate Fields for the Golden Gate Fields Turf Stakes-G3 for 4 and up the biggest surprise may be the field size at 9. Of course this race attracted several SoCal runners and looks to be a good one.

GGF R8
7:23

#3 Spring House
2-1
3-1
#5 Yacht Spotter
4-1
6-1
#6 Porfido
5-1
8-1
#9 Obrigado
5-1
8-1
#3 Spring House is a distance specialist and the only recent Graded stakes race winner in the bunch. Lately running in good company the 7 yo gelding goes slumming up to GGF in search of some Graded stakes money. After bleeding in the San Luis Rey, SH came back with a good effort in the San Juan Capistrano. Always deferential to the home team and horses for courses #5 Yacht Spotter is 5 for 8 and 8 times ITM at GGF. This front running type is stetching out to this distance for the first time, can be rated, and often these types of races can be won on the front end. Witness Criticism last week at Belmont. Besides the distance the worry for YS will be the speedy Shem at post 1 who may not be inclined to let YS have an easy time at the front. #6 Porfido and #9 Obrigado have each been chasing SH around alot. Porfido seems to be at his best at these longer distances and Obrigado was a mere 3/4 lengths behind SH last out.

Finally we wind up the evening in Hollywood. Enjoy it while you have it. The race is the Gamely Stakes-G1. I expect Black Mamba will get wound up for a big stretch run again. I think she was clearly the best at the end in the Santa Barbara and am not convinced she lost that race. Check the photo below and you decide. Meanwhile, here are the selections.

Hol R9
8:08
#10 Black Mamba
3-1
7-2
#4 Diamond Diva
7-2
5-1
#7 Magical Fantasy
4-1
6-1
#1 Tuscan Diva
6-1
9-1
#10 Black Mamba wound up going 9 wide, (comments say 6, but check the replay) to just miss and should turn the tables on the 7 with a little luck #4 Diamond Diva is the Horse for Course pick in here and has a victory over the top choice should be near front meaning less traffic and less that can go wrong. #7 Magical Fantasy rode the rails in the Santa Barbara while BM took the long route and just managed to hang on. In fact, check the win photo as it looks like a dead heat to me. Look for a different outcome this time. #1 Tuscan Diva should get the early lead and has top rider Bejarano aboard to see if she can be coaxed all the way home. I think the field is too strong for her, but worth a shot at a long price.

Black Mamba is the outside horse.

Post Race Analysis for May 23

2009-05-24T09:14:00.000-07:00

Back again. Officially, as far as the PH is concerned, I was 0 for 4.

Unofficially, and better for me, Euphony led broke alertly from the gate and led going into the clubhouse turned. Going down the backstretch, Euphony allowed the 90-1 Boudoir to go to the lead. Never trailing the leader by more than a length Euphony took command at the top of the stretch and was easily the best of Indescibable (show) and Kiss With A Twist (place) neither of whom could make up any ground on the winner. Euphony paid 17.80 to win. The $1 exacta, which I also had, paid $49.50. If only I'd played the Trifecta.

6/1 in the morning line, Euphony went off at nearly 8-1. Honestly, I cannot understand how the betting collective allowed Euphony to get off at such a price. Indescribable went of at 4/5 as the deserving favorite. Indescribable, coming off of 2 G3 wins deserved to be the favorite, but not at 4/5. There are two reasons I can think of for Euphony to be so relatively dismissed: 1) No G3 wins and 2) no experience on artificial surfaces.

When I am handicapping Graded Stakes races. The first thing I look for are horses which have shown that they are capable of winning at that level. However, when looking specifically at G3 races, one also has to be aware of 1) horses dropping in from G2 races and 2) up and coming horses that are demonstrating good form. Euphony obviously comes out of that latter group and is really the type you need to be on the lookout for because you won't get 8 to 1 on her next race. In many ways, this reminds me of Wild Promises who came to CRC last year after dominating stakes races at Golden Gate. Wild Promises went off at 5/1 that race and I couldn't believe my good fortune. Good luck getting 5/1 on Wild Promises after that race.

Thus, I come to the other hang up we handicappers have. Euphony's lack of artificial surface form. One item that I have recently been incorporating into my handicapping tool-kit is pedigree. I have previously pretty much paid no attention to pedigree, but have recently been learning of how powerful a tool pedigree can actually be. If one checks Euphony's pedigree, she was sired by Forest Wildcat out of the Smart Strike mare Strike It Up. Accordign to the Sire Stats book put out by Thoroughbred Sports Network, both of sides of Euphony's pedigree are above average (B rated) all-weather surface sires. But in this case, I didn't need to refer to the reference book to know that Euphony would handle the surface fine. As I wrote before, Euphony had won 4 consecutive stakes races on at 4 different tracks, 2 on turf, and 2 on dirt. In addition, Euphony had been training very well at Arlington including 2 bullet workouts over fake dirt. There was no doubt in my mind that Euphony would handle the surface. Some horses care about the surface and some don't. Euphony clearly fits into the latter category.

Ok, so much for my big win of the day, what about all those losses. The Sheepshead Bay at Belmont was a pretty simple race to handicap. Criticism was the horse to beat, and there was a way to beat him. Unfortunately, Kiaran McLaughlin's uncoupled entry raced as an uncoupled entry as both horses, in tandem, dropped to the back of the pack at the start of the race and Criticism was once again allowed to relax on an uncontested lead. The past performances suggested that Colina Verde, ridden by Alan Garcia, might be inclined to apply some pressure to Criticism and make him actually work for his lead. Instead, Garcia instantly applied a choke hold to Colina Verde at the start and Criticism led the field from wire to wire without ever being truly challenged. An outcome which I warned of but didn't wager on.

The Louisville handicap at Churchill Downs just turned out to be one of those races that all handicappers run into. Brass Hat has been winless for the last year and a half. At one time a top grass runner, it seemed as if 8 year old gelding's best competitive years were behind him. The real disappointment in this race was betting choice Always First who never really seriously contended in this race. Spice Route and Thabazimbi pretty much went as expected and just got beat today. I think the clues to Always First less than inspired performance likely lies in the comment lines for his last two races: 1) Lacked closing bid and 2) failed to menace. Perhaps at 8 years of age, Always First is losing interest. Note for next time. Check out the race replay.

Perhaps the most surprising outcome was in the Hanshin Hdcp. While not considered a contender for my selection purposes T=the winner, Vacation, ridden by J. R. Velazquez and trained by Claude "Shug" McGaughey (Gee, I wish I had a great nickname like that) was not a shocker. I thought Stonehouse would regress based upon his recent figure patterns and Cherokee Artist gave it a good effort in finishing 3rd, but Coragil Cat laid a big fat egg out there starting last out of the gate and finishing last at the end. Coming back 2nd off a layoff to a track where he had run well before, this just doesn't figure. But then, racing doesn't always figure. Fortunately for you, this race was a pass. Unfortunately for me, I had to make my play earlier than normal due to unusual circumstances while Coragil Cat was still at playable odds. That'll teach me not to use that conditional option. Looking critically at my own performance, Stonehouse should not have been a contender if I felt he was going to regress to form insufficient to win. I am satisfied with the other selections, if not the outcome. The elimination of Stonehouse as a contender could have made room for a 4th contender or just left it at 3 lowering the needed odds on the remaining 3.

Finally, coming to the HANA race of the week at Canterbury PARK, I had the top two finishers in order despite the race being moved to the main track. OK, really now, does anyone really believe that 10k claimers care about the surface? Especially when most of these weren't particularly the specialist type anyways. My bet was the longshot Elegant Star. I said in my analysis that I thought he was a notch below the others and as it turned out I was correct. But, if you can't take a shot in a race like this, when will you ever take a shot? Elegant Star stayed in contention for about a half and then fell back to bring up the rear, but that's OK. You can't win them all.

There was alot of talk on the HANA discussion group about how this race was a failure for the In The Pool buycott. Also some discussion about how our Canadian cousins were shut out of the action. I hope what has begun as a positive movement to improve the sport we all love doesn't devolve into a pissing contest because everyone can't be pleased all of the time. Sheesh, were horse players, you'd think we'd be used to losing every now and then.

'Til the next time.
Chalk Eating Weasel

Addendum: As reported by Bloodhorse.com, Jockey Rene Douglas has come out of 7 hours of surgery due to injuries incurred in an accident during the Matron Hdcp at Arlington Park yesterday. The incident occured when Born To Be clipped heels with Boudoir after being bumped by Sky Mom. Born To Be threw Douglas and the flipped over and landed on top of the rider. Bloodhorse reports that at this time it is unlikely Douglas will walk again; however that will not be known for certain until the swelling in the spinal area recedes. Bloodhorse also reported that Born To Be has recovered from the incident and has been returned to the barn of trainer Eric Cointreaux.

Pray or hope or make a sacrifice or whatever you do to get a good outcome over something you have no control over for the recovery of Rene Douglas.

Correction: In the post above I said that Brass Hat was, at one time, a top turf horse. The Bloodhorse reports that prior to Saturday's race, Brass Hat had not won in 7 tries over grass hardly qualifying as a top turf horse. All the same, had I been privy to that information, I would've been even less inclined to consider Brass Hat a contender. I remain of the opinion that Brass Hat is a classy horse and congratulate Calvin Borel on another great ride in this remarkable season he is having.

PH and HANA Pool Picks: May 23

2009-05-23T05:25:00.000-07:00

It's Saturday and that means time for another week of Stakes Race and Pool picks from the Chalk Eating Weasel.

The Public Handicapper contest selections give us a little bit of everything from Turf to Synthetics. Throw in a race on turf for cheap claiming horses from HANA and the day is complete.

First lets take on the G2 Sheepshead Bay Stakes for F and M 3 and up at a 11 furlongs. Post time is 5:17 Eastern.

1. Backstreet Rhythm
2-1
3-1
7. Caprice
3-1
9-2
3. Criticism
7-2
5-1

#1 and #3 faced each other in Feb. #3 had it all her own way that day leading from start to finish with no real pressure. Today McLauglin runs an uncoupled entry with Alan Garcia on Colina Verde. Alan's mission, should he choose to accept it, will be to make sure that Criticism doesn't get so comfy on the lead today. Backstreet Rhythm is 3 for 3 at Belmont and should make it 4 for 4 today if the above scenario plays out. Caprice, trained by Graham Motion and ridden by Edgar Prado, is 1 for 3 at the distance and 3 time ITM. She is another who could benefit from the aforementioned scenario. Or Criticism could just run away from them all again today.

Next is the 12 Furlong G3 Louisville Handicap for 3 and up on the Turf. Post Time is 5:29

8. Spice Route
6-5
9-5
5. Always First
7-2
5-1
9.Thabazimbi
6-1
9-1

Spice Route always seems to be the obvious choice, but I never seem to be able to catch him on a winning run. Always First has been first 5 of 13 tries at this distance and ITM 10 of 13. R. Albarado at 19% on Turf should be an improvement over G. Gomez who hasn't fared well on his eastern tour in the big races. Thabazimbi is ridden by J. Leparoux which makes him an automatic contender in my book. Entry level Alw winner in American debut (ridden by Gomez), the step up may be too much, but Leparoux rules @ CD and seems to get the best out of his mounts.

Meanwhile, up in Chicago land

Arlington Park R9 9 Furlongs G3 Arlington Matron Hdcp for F and M 3 and up Post Time 5:57

9. Indescribable
5-2
4-1
7. Euphony
4-1
6-1
#2 Kiss With A Twist
5-1
8-1
#1 Sky Mom
6-1
9-1
Indescribable is the 2-1 ML Favorite and with Desormeaux aboard, not likely to offer much value. Euphony may be the value horse hear, having won 4 consecutive minor stakes at 4 different tracks shows a versatility that is often lacking these days. This horse for any course has fired two bullet w/o's at AP and should handle the surface fine. KWAT ran 3rd on the turf last out in a G2 event at Keeneland and has shown an affinity for fake dirt. Sky Mom comes 2nd off layoff, a G3 winner at AP she should improve off her last effort.

and R10 G3 Hanshin Cup H. for 3 and up. Post Time 6:28

8 Coragil Cat
3-1
9-2
2. Cherokee Artist
7-2
5-1
1. Stonehouse
4-1
6-1
7. Amazing Results
6-1
9-1
I believe in horses for courses and history repeating. Coragil Cat won this race last year with Diego Sanchez aboard. The pace in this race should be fast which will be the perfect set up for a 2nd trip to the Winner's Circle in this race. Cherokee Artist is another that will benefit from a fast early pace. Stonehouse has been tearing up the track, has lots of speed and is not a need to lead type. However I also believe in figure patterns and Stonehouse ran his best race last out at Hawthorne. Amazing Results is 2 for 2 at AP and 1 for 1 at the distance. Will need to step up here to compete coming 2nd off layoff could be worth a flyer at a price.

And now the HANA pool race from Canterbury Downs. An 8 furlong affair for claiming price of $10,000 for F and M 3 and up. Post Time 5:40

1. Darby Lee
3-1
9-2
11. Deb Doright
7-2
5-1
6. Fancy And Quick
4-1
6-1
10 Elegant Star
6-1
9-1
A lot of horses coming up from Turf Paradise, but I'll be going with the horse that wintered in FL. Darby Lee is 2 for 6 on the CBY turf course. 11. Deb Doright breaks from the outside and I think Ry Eikleberry was the leading rider at Tup, but she is yet to get off the schnied in 6 turf tries. 6. FAQ is another Tup immigrant drops a level here but is winless in 9 turf attempts. 10. Elegant star has one win in open claiming co. and a win on the CBY turf, but seems a notch below the others

That does it for today. Remember the rules. Play only the overlays. If there are 3 or more overlays it is probable I am more clueless than usual so don't play my picks, I won't. If there are 2 overlays, play the lowest odds horse. If there are two overlays at odds greater than 8-1 then you can play both and Dutch them if you wish. The first set of odds is what I consider fair. I don't want fair. The 2nd set is fair +50%. Gives me lots of room to be wrong.

Good Luck, enjoy the day and get some winners.

Book Review: Handicapping The Wall Street Way: Picking Xtra Winners at the Track

2009-05-19T14:07:00.000-07:00

Ah yes my friends. Today it is my pleasure to bring you a review of the book of one of our advertisers, Uberhorse.com. The book is written by Mark E. Ripple and the title is as shown in the header for this entry.

The general thesis of the book is that playing the horses is much the same as investing in the stock market. Particular with regards to the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) as an analogy to the wagering pool. The gist of EMH is that at any given moment the given price for a stock is at the proper level due to the vast amount of information known about the underlying asset the stock represents. The idea being that the ebb and flow between rational buyers and sellers establishes the true value for the stock.

The author makes the claim that betting pools behave similarly to the market in that there is a vast amount of information processed by rational players which is used to establish the proper odds for each contestant in the race. Therefore, at any given moment the odds for a given horse are a true reflection of that horses probability of winning the race. The author has dubbed this phenomenom the Efficient Pool Hypothesis (EPH).

Naturally, there are flaws in the EMH as well as the EPH and imbalances occur in both markets that the astute trader (player) should be able to take advantage of. Without going into all the reasons (greed and fear) that these imbalances occur, I am in general agreement with the author on this count.

Generally, in the markets and in the wagering pools, the crowd gets it right most of the time. In recent years in the stock market we've seen many manias and panics. These manias and panics are over-reactions of the crowd to certain pieces of information which is either favorable or unfavorable. The author gives several examples of how these imbalances may occur at the racetrack and suggests methods by which one may take advantage of these imbalances. The think I liked best about the suggestions are that they were simple, easy to follow, common sense ideas without a lot complicated or esoteric calculations that are impractical for most player and, in my opinion, of dubious value anyway.

The author talks a little about the psychology of betting. The subtitle of Chapter 2 is "The Zero Sum Game". I disagree with the author on this point. Because of the take-out, racing is actually a negative sum game. The track returns less to the bettors than they take in, its how they make their money. Here he makes some generalized observations about different types of players and the effects these different types may have on the betting pool. I really think this is probably one of the weaker sections of the book as the author makes several conjectures regarding player preferences which may or may not be so.

Most analogies are of limited value at some point, and here I think the author meets his Waterloo in comparing two and three year olds to penny stocks. I don't think anyone is thinking of Rachel Alexandra as a penny stock. Personally, I love betting 2 year old sprints because they are all about speed as two year olds just hit the track and go. They have yet to learn the finer points of racing and if you can find the one that will break well and carry his speed for 4 1/2 furlongs you've likely found the winner. But even noted author James Quinn warns against playing 3 year old maiden races saying they are too unpredictable, so I can't totally bust on the author for this part of the book. I'll just say that I didn't think this part of the book added much to the discussion and move on.

The author offers a little questionnaire to help the reader determine his risk profile. I think the questions are, for the most part good and perhaps useful to the novice just starting out. My personal question regarding this part of the book is how the author came up with these questions. If he developed them himself, then in what way is he qualified to come up with these questions? Perhaps he could answer that as a stock broker, part of his job was to assess the risk profile of potential clients. Or maybe, he collaborated with a qualified psychologist to arrive at these questions and the personality assessment based on the answers to the questions. Either answer, or perhaps another would satisfy me. It would just be nice to know. By the way, I fit the high risk profile.

After determining whether you are a high risk kind of guy or more conservative bettor, the author then offers potential strategies and angles one can use which fit the profile. Again, what I liked about these offerings for both the aggressive and conservative player is the simplicity of the methods and the clear straightforward manner in which the methodologies may be applied. I do have some basic disagreements some aspects of the approaches the author uses, especially those that would require me to carry a calculator to the track. But that is only to say that there is more than one way to skin a cat, not to disparage the methods the author proposes. There is my perpetual quibble that I would like to see some statistical documentation that these methods are actually profitable, but maybe that is asking too much.

The author offers a list of tracks that he suggests are good for either long shot or conservative players. I'm not sure about how accurate this chart is, particularly after the Uber chalky Saturday I spent at Calder on Saturday. And many of the races at Gulfstream with its emphasis on 3 year olds and horses coming of their late fall early winter layoffs can at times be quite inscrutable leading to frequent box car payoffs.

The author discusses money management. Good for him. More authors should discuss money management. Barry Meadows suggested using the Kelly Method to determine bet size and, for my money, this is the method that has always made the most sense except for the fatal flaw that it required me to use a calculator at the track. I found that I was spending most of my time figuring out bet sizes and not really enjoying myself. The author discusses progressive betting methods where the player bets more money on each successive race after a loss until the player finally wins. The problem is, if the player doesn't win soon enough, he goes bust. The author kind of hedges his position on progressive betting sort of saying he, "is not a big fan of progressive betting in general, but the Fibonacci sequence is certainly my favorite method....." I'm not quite sure if he's fer or agin it.

I did like his Dutching section and in fact I used that method in my Preakness bet. Unfortunately for me, for dutching to work, you still have to have the winner. I don't usually dutch, as a rule, but somtimes I find it a useful tool, particularly if I have two longshots in a race I feel good about. The section on dutching, if you are not familiar with the technique is very useful. Personally, I tend to be a flat bet wagerer although I will occasionally vary the size of my bet depending on odds, mood, or confidence in my handicapping of a particular race. The author states that flat betting does not take full advantage of the conservative betting methods he suggests, but then I am not a conservative better and will tend to put more money on longshots than my short priced overlays.

The last chapter, discussing finding value in exactas is very useful, particularly for new players. Unfortunately for me, I'd have to take a calculator with me again. For me, if at least one of my contenders is an overlay, then I'm good to go. I know that this is not always a reliable method for finding value in the exacta pool, but its close enough for me to work with. However, the author is technically correct and one should at least pay attention to the exacta payoffs to determine if the pay out is really worth the risk. I do wish that the author would've discussed value in more depth in other parts of the book.

In summary, while I do have some quibbles and disagreements with the author such as I have already discussed. I did find the book to be a worthwhile read. There is a saying, attributable to Benjamin Graham, I think,"Buy when there is blood in the streets." Or, to put it another way, when everyone is jumping on Smarty Jones or Big Brown in the Belmont, maybe its time to look for a little value elsewhere. I think the author gives a unique perspective and offers some good solid advice. If I ever find a book where I agree with everthing in it, I'm goin to go have my head examined. To me the great thing about racing is everyone is entitled to their opinions and beliefs and furthermore, they can put their money on it.

So in closing, buy the book. The price is reasonable and you definitely will learn something from it.

Preakness Post Mortem

2009-05-18T16:04:00.000-07:00

A day late and $23.00 short (the total amount I played on the Preakness) I'm trying to figure out what to do with that little thingy to the left on the top with my picture. At first, I was just using my raw Public Handicapper Picks up. However, since I don't necessarily play my top choice in a race, I decided that wasn't an accurate representation of my results.

Then I started putting up results while playing the home game, but I find that to be very distracting, hectic, and of no use to anyone since by the time I get anything posted the race is already running.

So here's what I'm going to do, and I'm going to stick with it this time. I will put up the results of my plays on any Public Handicapper, HANA Get in the pool race, or other race I feel compelled to chime in with an opinion on commencing with the results from Saturday.

So, speaking of results, Rachel and the Bird made a monkey of the Weasel. Third place was the best any of my contenders could come up with.

My impression immediately following the race and which I carried with me until I looked at the replays today is that Rachel Alexandra was clearly the best in this race, but she seemed to be laboring the last 16th with Mine That Bird closing furiously. I felt, had the race gone another 16th MTB would've caught her.

After watching the replays, I'm more of the mind that Borel was easing her the last portion of the race making MTB's finish seem more impressive than it was (it was still impressive).

Of my contenders, Musket Man pretty much saved ground on the rail mid-pack throughout most of the race and was able to reel in the faltering horse from the first group while making up no ground on the winnner. Pioneerof The Nile track the pacesetters in about 5th position but was 3 wide most of the trip and went at least 6 wide on the final turn. Gomez pretty much stopped trying down the stretch as Pioneer was clearly finished.

However, there is one contender that may have an excuse. Friesan Fire stumbled to his knees at the start and then played bumper cars with a rank Big Drama all the way to the club house turn. In spite of the difficult beginning, FF was able to stalk the pace at least to the point where Borel asked Rachel to go on and leave the boys behind. I feel the need to point this out because in the results it only states that "Friesan Fire bobbled at the break, quickly recovered and reached a striking position, bumped with Pioneerof The Nile entering the first turn, angled out four wide for the run down the backstretch, was put to a ride midway on the final turn then tired through the drive." While FF did recover quickly, it was no mere bobble at the break and there is no mention of the bumping with Big Drama who seemed unable to run in a straight line the first time down the stretch. Just a little something you might want to consider for the next race.

If you just played my PH handicapper picks straight you won 2 of 4, the Preakness not withstanding, which is not too bad. If you paid attention to my odds line, then you passed 1oth race (the Maryland Sprint Hdcp) altogether even though Ravalo was the winner with 4th choice, Silver Edition completing the exacta.

In the Dixie Stakes, 2nd choice Kiss The Kid was the betting choice and seemed to be in good position to make a bid entering the stretch but got pinched off not once, but twice when trying to move forward. Top choice Parading got the good trip and won the race. Such is turf racing.

The winning play for me came in the 8th race. 2nd choice Everyday Heroes at 7-1 brought home the bacon, unfortunately, we couldn't get another contender up to complete the exacta. That would've been sweet. For you tote board watchers out there, and that would include me, I should point out that the odds on Everyday Heroes dropped from 9-1 to 7-1 at 0 minutes to post. Somebody had to drop a bundle to move the odds that much considering the size of the pool. My apologies, I had contender Yano as number 8 when he should've been number 9. Remember to check your programs.

The above race along with the day I had at CRC where I was en fuego, made for a very enjoyable day and I didn't even mind getting beat by the best horse in the Preakness. I can't wait for the Belmont.

Pub Handicapper Picks for May 16

2009-05-16T05:38:00.000-07:00

Well here they are for those who want a good laugh. I sure whiffed on the Black-Eyed Susan. When Hooh Why was scratched every thing was changed, and I should've just passed the race. Haven't seen anything about a HANA in the pool race this week, so I guess were skipping that one as we did for Derby day.

Well, here goes nothing

Pim R8 Hirsch Jacobs Stakes, G3 for 3 year olds

#1 Taqarub
3-1
7-2
#2 Everyday Heroes
7-2
5-1
#7 Nuclear Wayne
9-2
7-1
#8 Yano
5-1
8-1
Speed, Speed, nothing but speed. Give inside posts advantage over outside, but its really anybody's race

Race 10 Maryland Sprind Hdcp G3 for 3 and up

#8 Ravalo
2-1
3-1
#5 Ah Day
4-1
6-1
#2 Grand Traverse
6-1
9-1
#3 Silver Edition
6-1
9-1
#8 Ravalo is 8 for 16 at the distance with last 10 all against stakes company. #5 Recent stakes winner and 5 of 7 at the distance with lots of backclass. Ignore last race at mile #2 Grand Traverse has been showing good form of late, but beware of high speed figure set over sloppy sealed track in last at Chuchill #3 Winner of the 50k Hot Springs hdcp at Oaklawn could step up with Leparoux

Race 11 Dixie Stakes G2 for 3 and up

#3 Parading
3-1
9-2
#4 Kiss The Kid
7-2
5-1
#1 Proudinsky
4-1
6-1
#7 Wesley
6-1
9-1
#3 Comes into race off a nice G3 win and has had a little more time to recover than #1. #4 has won 3 of his last 4 and rarely misfires. He is well rested and should run well here. #1 Proudinsky just bumped heads 2 weeks ago with arguably the best older turf horse in N.A. (Einstein). He will be a factor if he can come back quickly off that race. #7 Had a nice tune-up opening weekend at CRC, but this field is much better than the one he faced in Florida.

R12 The Preakness G1 3 yo's

P# 12th Race

Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#9 Pioneeror The Nile
3-1
9-2
#3 Musket Man
7-2
5-1
#5 Friesan Fire
4-1
6-1
#1 Big Drama
5-1
8-1

I'm deliberately ignoring, admittedly perhaps to my detriment, the publicity horse Rachel Alexandra and the Cinderella horse Mine That Bird for reasons I've already discussed. I think Big Drama could run a Big Race here although, supposedly, history regarding fresh horses coming into the Preakness would suggest not. Still, he should be a pace factor and make RA run a little harder than maybe she is used to early.

Black-Eyed Susan and Later Preakness Thoughts

2009-05-15T13:38:00.000-07:00

The Black-Eyed Susan for 3yo Fillies. Well I just saw that Hooh Why my top choice is scratched. Matt Carruthers on TVG said we knew about this days ago, but I didn't. Well that sort of changes everything. #8 Don't Forget Gil was my 2nd choice, but Hooh Why was a major pace factor and I envisioned a scenario where Hooh Why and Casanova Move would hook up early and set the race up for Don't Forget Gil.

That all being said I think I am going to stay with Don't Forget Gil and make Renda the 3rd choice and keep Casanova Move as the 2nd choice. The reasoning is simple. Casanova Move is always sniffing around the money, but she hasn't won since she broke her maiden. Don't Forget Gil has won 3 in 7 tries including the G3 Florida Oaks at Tampa, which apparently had a much better quality of racing this year than most of us usually give them credit for. Even Renda is tempting for 2nd choice, but S O Madrid is an average journeyman jockey in S. Fla and Juan Arias is an average trainer. Still, its the horse that runs the race and if the good Renda shows up today, I would not be shocked.

Here are the odds:

#8 Don't Forget Gil
Fair Odds 8-5
Bet at 5/2 or better
#7 Casanova Move
Fair Odds 3-1
Bet at 9-2 or better
#9 Renda
Fair odds 6-1
Bet at 9-1 or better.

For the Preakness you've pretty much heard it all already and I don't have much to add except that I really like Big Drama coming off the rail with the blinkers off. I saw the early betting odds on TVG and it looks like you can play virtually any horse you like and get a decent price. Even Rachel Alexandra is still at 8-5, so if you like her go for it. I like Pioneerof The Nile. I like the pp and think of the contenders I like he got the best of that draw excepting Big Drama. Musket Man has proven to me he belongs in this mix. I haven't given up on Friesan Fire. If FF can avoid getting mugged this time, he'll run much better. Those are my 4 choices and I'm likely to play the longest odds of the 4 boxed with the other 3 in the exacta. If I decide to go 3 deep with a trifecta, I'll throw Take The Points and Papa Clem into the mix. If I get beat by Rachel Alexandra or Mine that Bird, so be it.

Early Preakness Thoughts

2009-05-14T14:04:00.000-07:00

I spent my whole lunch hour today looking at the Preakness Stakes past performances and thinking about how to approach the race. As much as I looked forward to the Derby this is a far more interesting race to me.

The more I thought about this race, the more I came to the conclusion that the proper strategic approach to this is as important as trying to pick the winner. It would be very easy to pick Rachel Alexandra, Mine The Bird, or Pioneerof The Nile, and no one would fault me if I was wrong. Of course, no one would be knocking down my door to congratulate me if I was right either.

I decided that there were definitely going to be two underlaid horses in this race. The 8-5 morning line for Rachel Alexandra seems to generous. If you can get that price play it if you think she will win. She may be the best horse in the race. Yet, as we all know, the best horse doesn't always win the race, and I'm not convinced she is the best horse. More on that later.

Mine The Bird is 6-1 in the morning line. My opinion is that 6-1 is already an underlay for Mine The Bird. Mine The Bird has just run the race of his life, with the trip of his life, with the perfect rider for that trip and beat the best 3yo colts in the country. No doubt, the planets were perfectly aligned for Calvin Borel two weeks ago. Sometimes 3 year olds just "wake up" that way and stay good; sometimes its just a flash in the pan and they return to their old ways. I don't know which is the correct direction for this horse. Who know's, maybe he just had alot of pent up energy from the fabled 3 day trailer trek from New Mexico to Churchill Downs? Do they test for peyote in the Derby?

Now all you Rachel lovers are going to start hating on me, I know, but I see a few reasons why she may be a vulnerable favorite and overbet. First, and this has nothing to do with her ability, she is what Mark Cramer would refer to as the "Publicity Horse" in the race. After all the big to do about the ownership and trainer change, Calvin Borel making the historic choice to leave the Derby winner for her, the conspiracy controversy, and the mere fact that a girl is taking on the boys is enough for all the press coverage she is getting. It doesn't hurt that she just may beat the boys.

However, I have been informed from several sources that horses are creatures of habit. Rachel Alexandra had a trainer and a barn she obviously had a good relationship with. Just like that she is taken away from everything she is familiar with and handed over to different people with different habits and ways of going about the business of horse racing. Steve Asmussen is an excellent trainer, no doubt, but, seriously, how much better can he make the horse than she already is. I see only downside possibilities from this change. Maybe horses don't really mind as long as they are well fed and cared for as I'm sure she is.

Secondly, as impressive as Rachel's win in the Oaks was (you don't mind if I call her Rachel do you?), it was really nothing more than an allowance race for non winners of 2 other than maiden, claiming or starter once Justwhistlndixie dropped out. In fact, once she figured out how the game is played, no one has really challenged her. Assuming Rachel was not in the Oaks, three fourths of the Derby field would've won that race without too much trouble if not as impressively.

Rachel will not find the pickins so easy this time and how she reacts to the higher level of competition will do much to determine the outcome of the race. While the colts having been knocking heads all Winter and Spring, Rachel has had it relatively easy.

Finally, until about 1.5 weeks ago, Rachel was never intended for this or any other race today. Her next race was to be on Belmont day as I recall. Now, I'm not a trainer, but I'd lay odds that if I were planning to race two weeks after the Oaks, I would've approached the races differently than if I had not been planning to run. Will she be ready to fire her best? I won't take low odds on it.

Next time I'll tell who I like and why.

New Contest

2009-05-09T05:12:00.000-07:00

Well, it's a new Public Handicappers contest and I have recovered from the shock of the stunning derby upset and am ready to offer up some new wisdom for this week's Public Handicapper races. I will also give you my thoughts on the HANA Get In The Pool race (Race 6 @ Prarie Meadows) if I get a chance later.

You will notice my last post got a comment from my wise-ass son who couldn't resist the opportunity to point out the Weasel's recent cold streak. Anyone who plays this game long enough knows how it goes, and I'll keep on plugging away. Now to the races

Philadelphia, Race 8: Lyman H 75k for Pa. Breds 3 and up.

#9 Wincat
3-1
9-2
#7 Movin Out
7-2
5-1
#5 Whistle Pig
9-2
7-1
#2 Secretintelligence
5-1
8-1
In many ways a rerun of Novembers 75k Yankeefair for statebreds with 5 of 9 contenders having run in that race. Going outside that race for the top two contenders. #9 Wincat, 3rd place finisher in the G2 2008 Swale Stakes at GP, is a surprising 12-1 in the ML. Last race was on an off track, if we can excuse that performance, Wincat's previous two indicate Wincat may be sitting on a big race. #7 Movin Out has no stakes experience but has done nothing but get better as a 4 year old. If Movin Out can just run back to his last race, it will be good enough. #5 Whistle Pig seems to run the same race time after time. He's not going to surprise anyone with a monster effort, but he is good enough to win this race. #2 Secretintelligence is the speed of the speed in this race with an E8 Quirin fig. No wins at the distance suggests 7 furlongs may be about 1 furlong too much, but could steal the race if not pressed too hard. Keep in mind for those exactas and trifectas.

Next we go north of the border to Woodbine Race Course New Providence Stakes 125K for registered Ontario Breds 3 and up
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The above is editorial comment made by Max the Jack Russell puppy when I had to answer the door to let the exterminator in.

#6 Stuck In Traffic
2-1
3-1
#3 Drunken Love
5-2
4-1
#2 Legal Move
4-1
6-1

Wasn't thrilled with what appears to be a mediocre field #6 Stuck in Traffic doesn't get much respect with an 8-1 ML; however, he's a veteran and winner of this type of race as a 3yo and there isn't really anyone else here that stands out. Stuck in Traffic is a winner 2 of 3 at the distance and 4 of 11 at WO #3 Drunken Love is not as accomplished as the top choice but has consistent Brisnet figs in the mid to upper 90's, is 4 for 8 at the distance and 5 for 14 at WO and would not be a surprise #2 Legal Move is kind of a throw in because I feel obligated to offer at least 3 choices. Legal Move likes the distance, 7 of 13, and is nearly 50 %, 9 of 20 on Woodbine's surface.

Now to the Belmont at Elmont and the Peter Pan Stakes G2 For 3yo's

#6 Imperial Council
2-1
3-1
#2 Hello Broadway
5-2
4-1
#3 Charitable Man
4-1
6-1

#6 Imperial Council won't have to worry about I Want Revenge any longer. At first I was leaning to the 2nd choice, but I reconsidered and decided to go with the home team, Edgar Prado in this race #2 Hello Broadway, winner last out at Keeneland returns to New York and brings Garrett Gomez with him. Hello Broadway always seems to be well regarded at the windows. #3 Charitable Man, winner of the G2 Futurity at this track comes 2nd off layoff for Kiaran McLaughlin and Alan Garcia. I think we'll see a much improved effort this time out

And finally down to Joisey for the 70k Decathalon Stakes for 3yo's and up

#4 Unwritten

#1 He's So Chic

#5 Acting Zippy

Very contetious race in which any of the three choice could win. #4 Unwritten is the speed to catch with an E7 Quirin fig. #1 He's So Chic comes home to a track and a distance that has been very good for him and #5 Acting Zippy ships in from Delaware where he demolished the contenders in a similar type race while setting a personal best Brisnet figure. Look for him to stalk the pace and try to take over if he has enough left. I can't really separate the 3 but would play whoever has the longest odds.

I don't know if I'm going to get to play any of these today or not. It depends on what I'm doing. This morning I'm driving down to Coral Gables as the school year is almost over and I have to move my wise-ass son out of his dorm room. I should make him walk back. I'll put in the Prarie Meadows race as soon as I can. Since that race is much later tonight, I probably will get a chance to participate. Maybe we can get this cold streak turned around.

And now for HANA's Get In The Pool Race #6 From Prairie Meadows

#2 T. C.'s Sweetie
3-1
9-2
#1 Courtney J
7-2
5-1
#3 Ekberg
9-2
7-1
#8 Shhh Hush Hush
5-1
8-1
#2 T. C.'s Sweetie comes home from Hawthorne where she's been facing better. Projected pace scenario sets race up for closing type. #1 Courtney J finished 2nd last out after swinging 6 wide, should be around at the end with a better trip. #3 Beat better at this track as a 3yo, but will have to contend with the other speed in the race #8 Shhh Hush Hush who has had good success at PRM. If either of these gets loose it could be over.

Somebody Pinch Me

2009-05-02T15:54:00.000-07:00

Somebody wake me up. I think I just had a bad dream. A 50-1 shot just closed me out of all of my Derby bets! What? It wasn't a Dream!? Arrrrrgh!

Well all the same. Congratulations to Calvin Borel, Mine That Bird, and all his connections. This is what makes this game is simultaneously exhilirating and infuriating.

It's dinner time and my dog needs to poop. See ya next week

Rachel Romps, Weasel Chomps

2009-05-02T04:55:00.000-07:00

Even at 1.5 to 5 the Weasel couldn't resist the allure of that equine siren, Rachel Alexandra. My $20.00 wager netted $6.00. I couldn't help myself. It's like going to the laudromat and finding $6.00 wadded up in the drier. How can you just leave it there?

Now I still have a live Oaks/Derby Double ticket with 6 Derby contenders: Hold Me Back, Friesan Fire, Regal Ransom, Chocolate Candy, I Want Revenge, and Pioneerof The Nile. Some of these will pay a reasonable amount considering the heavy favortism of Rachel Alexandra and all will at least pay for the total wager, so I'm feeling pretty good about that. Kudos to Greg Calabrese for finding out the will pays http://gregcalabrese.blogspot.com/2009/05/oaksderby-will-pays.html.

Although, I still reserve the right to change my mind. Right now, Freisan Fire is my huckleberry to win the roses. Pioneerof The Nile is my #2, but if the track is off, I may change my mind on that one. Regal Ransom is #3 and I Want Revenge is #4.

Having a live Double ticket gives me the luxury of spreading a few $2 win bets on some of the longer prices that may have a chance, so on that basis, I can have at least half the field covered.

Now for a special treat, I received the following E-Mail from Mark Cramer CX Report. Since there is no warning not to republish this information and I'm no longer a subscriber to his report, I feel no guilt about publishing this for the world to see. Bear in mind, I have nothing but great respect for Mr. Cramer. His books have opened my eyes to the possibities available in handicapping horses and have much enhanced my enjoyment of the sport. However, I don't feel he really has his heart into the CX Report and with its sporadic publishing schedule I didn't feel like it was worth the subscription price and didn't renew for another year. But they still send me E-Mails and this time I actually got content due to their server being down. Mark's analysis of major races is like no one elses. So here it is for you.

is being sent via email as our blog was not working -- also some thoughts from Nick Kling belowDerby 2009 Final Post but .As always, I do a final post but reserve the right to leave somethingfor Saturday morning in case there is any new development, somethingthat happened in the BC when I posted a late discovery on Desert Codeon Saturday morning.I see my top three Derby horses as evenly ranked but for entirelydifferent reasons. Obligated to provide a ranking, I resort to thepotential value.Top ranked: DESERT PARTY. In addition to what I've said in previousposts, I can add two things. We can note that DP threw in a clunker inthe Hopeful, behind Vineyard Haven. DP has defeated Vineyard Haventwice, one prior to the Hopeful and then in Dubai, by more than 10lengths. This is an indicator of a developing horse. Second, DP'sstable is 3 for 4 with Dominguez aboard. And of course, DP's pedigreeand the fact that he's won on the mud, in case the rain issignificant.Second. FRIESAN FIRE. We can be concerned about the fact that FF's bigimprove was on a sloppy track. That track had been sealed and there isa good chance that, with a 70% chance of rains for both Friday andSaturday, Churchill will seal the track. Larry Jones has twicefinished second with high-odds horses. FF could be another second forLJ.Third. I WANT REVENGE. I looked again at Talamo's description of theWood. He said that IWR did not even run until the last eighth. If forsome reason there is not much odds differential between FF and IWR, Iwould reverse this order of preference.POSSIBLE STEALER: I had mentioned that REGAL RANSOM took advantage ofa track bias in Dubai, but if Churchill is sealed, he may get anearly-speed bias once again. Not much speed in this field. Join theDance has enjoyed slow fractions in his two front-running route racesand gotten beaten both times. RR's only bad race was on syntheticsurface.FIFTY-TO-ONE TRIFECTA INCLUSION: SUMMER BIRD's only knock is lack ofexperience, but luck at those increasing speed figures! He has TripleCrown pedigree. He was on the way to passing Papa Clem, a horse whosepicture has been taken with the Derby favorites.I don't know what to say about DUNKIRK. On pure ability he shouldcontend for this race. But the trainer is snakebit in the Derby,Dunkirk did not race as a two year old, and he must be frail to haveonly raced three times so far. If he wins, we can look back and seereasons why, but if he does and I don't have him, I will sleep wellanyway.PIONEER OF THE NILE is the other horse I am leaving out. I continue tofeel that the SA Derby should be demoted to Grade 2. He has not beenon dirt and his dirt works beg interpretation. I wish I did not haveto make judgments about this extra surface factor. I wish they wouldjust run 'em on good old dirt. The SA synthetic horses can't evendefeat invading turf shippers on their own "soil". Again, if Baffertwins this one, I will still sleep well.mcNick Kling is a fine handicapper, one of the best in the nation. Sincehe's not available at the usual sources, I felt it would beinteresting for you to read his arguments. Having to handicap thetrack condition while handicapping the race has never been easy.One last note, repeated from other Stakes Weekends. This is not a toutservice. I try to provide information, or at least extract it, in asobjective a way as possible. Many C&X readers are fine handicappers.You don't need a guru and the fun of this game is making your ownchoice, using the information that is available. My job is simply todig for info that you may not have seen, info you can add to your ownanalysis if you deem it worthy.Enjoy this great day of the year and be confident in your own wisdom.Mark TROY RECORD MAY 2, 2009 A FIRE IN KENTUCKY Let's get right to the point. I think FRIESAN FIRE is going to win the Kentucky Derby, and Iwon't be surprised if he wins big. Here are several reasons why. 1) PACE: As it said here yesterday, the loss of three qualityspeed horses to injury has dramatically changed the 135th Derby.Where once the pace could have easily been fast, setting up closerslike Dunkirk and Pioneerof the Nile, it is now likely to be moderate. The most likely race set-up is for impossible longshot Join Inthe Dance to get the lead. Closest to him will be Regal Ransom.Friesan Fire should be positioned third or fourth in the run down thebackstretch. He will not be far off the leader, unless Join In theDance is launched from the gate by jockey Chris Decarlo, settingsprinter's fractions. Even if that materializes, Friesan Fire will have a hugetactical edge over the closers. Jerry Bailey once said the pace of arace is not determined by the frontrunner. Rather, said Bailey, whatthe second horse does is more important. Regal Ransom's jockey AlanGarcia is not likely to fall into the trap of chasing Join In theDance, a horse almost certain to stop like he has a flat tire. If I am correct, Regal Ransom and Friesan Fire will settle intoa comfortable gait, waiting to make their move. 2) WEATHER/TRACK CONDITION: The forecast for Louisville,Kentucky, site of Churchill Downs and the Derby, is for moisture.There could be possible thunder showers in the morning, followed bysteady, light rain in the afternoon. Churchill's track superintendent, Butch Lehr, is a master atmanaging the dirt surface. Nine times out of ten he can transformswamp into fast going by Derby post time. However, if the forecast iscorrect, he may have to seal the track -- push it into a flat, firmsurface so rain runs off. That traditionally favors horses with early speed, and thosewith experience racing over similar conditions. Friesan Fire won theLouisiana Derby on a sloppy, sealed track, demolishing what wasconsidered an excellent field. Conversely, prime contenders Dunkirk, Pioneerof the Nile, and IWant Revenge, have never seen that type of surface. The latter pairhave galloped over wet going at Churchill in recent days, but that isnot the same as catching gobs of mud in your face, or being asked togive maximum effort on unfamiliar footing. Mid-level prospect Desert Party won a stake at Saratoga oversealed mud, while Papa Clem finished a distant second to Friesan Firein the Louisiana Derby. If the track is actually wet at Derby posttime, they could prove the primary threats. 3) PATTERNS: Friesan Fire comes into the race in a manner verysimilar to Hard Spun and Eight Belles. Like Friesan Fire, both weretrained by Larry Jones. Both finished second, running well enough towin. Friesan Fire reprised Hard Spun's blistering pre-Derby workout,going five furlongs in 57 and change. Eight Belles trained fast aswell. Like Friesan Fire, she had not raced farther than one andone-sixteenth miles before the Derby. 4) SYNTHETIC TRACKS: Six of the Derby entrants have never won arace on dirt. Most of them have either never raced on dirt, or shownno ability over it. That includes prime contender Pioneerof the Nile,as well as mid-level prospects Chocolate Candy and Hold Me Back. Is there a chance that one or more of those colts will likeChurchill dirt? Of course. Is it wise to risk a wager on an animaltrying something it has never done? Only if the odds are right. Pioneerof the Nile is 4-1 on the morning line. Accepting thoseodds on an unknown commodity is a license to lose. At the minimum,demand twice the price. Hold Me Back (15-1), Chocolate Candy (20-1), and Mr. Hot Stuff(30-1), can be considered if their odds do not drop. It would bepreferable to hold out for more. 5) OTHER QUESTIONS: If racing legends like Secretariat, SeattleSlew, and Spectacular Bid can lose, any horse can lose. What is themost likely scenario which could lead to a Friesan Fire loss, otherthan random bad luck? If I'm wrong about the pace, or if Gabriel Saez prematurelysends Friesan Fire after the leaders, he could lose. A dry trackmight be less speed-favoring than a wet one. Both of thoseeventualities would help stalker/closers. The most likely winner other than Friesan Fire is DUNKIRK. I was prepared to like this horse, love him even. Dunkirk'sFebruary 19 allowance victory at Gulfstream was eye-catching. Horsesdon't win at Gulfstream Park the way he did that day. Where some saw Dunkirk's loss to Quality Road as a sign thelatter was superior, I saw a talented runner-up defeated bycircumstances -- a slow pace and speed-biased track. And don'tunderestimate how good Quality Road was that day. If he was healthyand in this race, Quality Road might have been my top choice. I don't believe Dunkirk's lack of seasoning will hurt him. Therules for winning the Kentucky Derby have changed, and he may be themost talented horse in the race. I WANT REVENGE has run well enough to win the Derby, but onlyif Friesan Fire and Dunkirk fail to improve. The likelihood is bothwill today. It is almost a certainty one will. Call me a superstitious fool, but I can't shake the notion theracing spirits will anoint a horse other than I Want Revenge. Thereis bad karma surrounding trainer Jeff Mullins. A Mullins win would beakin to the Black Sox having gotten away unpunished after the 1919World Series. Kentucky Derby Selections: 1) Friesan Fire, 2) Dunkirk, 3) IWant Revenge, 4) Desert Party.

Good luck and enjoy the racing today.

Kentucky Oaks/Derby Talk

2009-04-30T14:38:00.000-07:00

Everyone's talking about the goings on in Louisville this weekend, and the Weasel is not about to be left out of the conversation. However, first a brief rant about the goings on at Hollywood Park.

What's up with all of these ridiculously short fields. Jeebus, I feel like I'm playing Golden Gate Fields. Unfortunately, the Weasel smells a rat here. It is no secret that the owner of the property, Bay Meadows Land Company, would like to tear the track down and replace it with some type of shopping, entertainment, and office center. Just what California needs, right?

Now I read that today's card is cancelled due to the inability to fill the races. Not enough horses to go around. Where did they all go?

Now, the evil land developers need to have that property rezoned in order to realize their grandiose plan. I can think of no better way to convince the Inglewood City Council to rezone the property than to make the track become an utter failure.

Being very libertarian and a believer in property rights, BMLC should have the right to develop the property as they see fit so long as they do no harm to their neighbors. That is just a general opinion based on principle. I really don't know enough details about the situation to be more controversial than that. However, don't destroy the racing just to get your way! Run some real races rather than these 4 horse farces you refer to as a card. There, I feel better now.

Now on to more important things. First analysis of the Kentucky Oaks. Rachel Alexandra. Really, do I need to say more? Just look at the form and you'll find only two horses that even should be sniffing the same track she's on. I'm almost surprised she didn't opt for the Derby, but with such easy pickins here, why strain oneself? Save it up for the inevitable Breeder's Cup Match up against Zenyatta.

Rachel Alexander is 3/5 in the ML , and I would play her at that price. Otherwise, I see no way to extract any value from this race.

On the other hand, this year's derby is a handicappers dream race. This is one of the few races I am approaching from a win oriented approach rather than value. The favorite in this race could very well go off at 7/2 or 4/1, so if you like it play it. Simple.

First, I'll begin with the horses with no chance. Breaking from post 20, Flying Private has been close but no "Cigar" since breaking his maiden. He's no Big Brown, I knew Big Brown, I saw Big Brown in the Florida Derby from the 12 post and the Derby from 20. Flying Private is no Big Brown.

We'll skip over the luckless Desert Party for a moment and move to Nowhere To Hide. Sometimes I love the computerized absurdities that pass for comments on the Brisnet PP's. In this case the quote is "May improve with blinkers added today." Rocket powered roller skates won't be enough for Nowhere To Hide, but, I suppose when you pay 250k for yearling, you're going to see him run in the Derby, no matter what.

From the 17th post Summer Bird is another toss out having never beaten winners. Besides, there's not enough room on the trophy for the owners Kalarikkal K and Vilasini Jayaraman. They give horses strange names?

#14 Atomic Rain lost in the Wood Memorial to a horse that got left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. Maybe had Atomic Rain got slammed in the stretch, but more about later. Besides, Joe Bravo never seems to get the best rides outside of New Jersey.

I know #12 General Quarters is the sappy story of the Derby. But he needed the Bluegrass to get in. I didn't get the impression Hold Me Back was all that well intended in the Bluegrass and expect Cinderella to turn into a pumpkin sometime down the back stretch.

Join In the Dance gets Pletcher's 2nd stringer for the ride is yet another horse that has never won a race with other winners in it.

Mine That Bird, I hope Calvin Borel enjoys his trip on Rachel Alexandra because that will be his glory trip for the weekend.

The only horses that run in the Lexington, 2 weeks before the Derby, are those that are in desparate need for graded earnings or those with no Derby plans. Advice is among the former of that group. I don't think you are likely to come back and win the Derby 2 weeks after winning the Lexington.

Mr. Hot Stuff is another with only a maiden win to show for his effort and ran behind Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy in the Santa Anita Derby.

Finally we have West Side Bernie. Another horse that got beat by a horse left at the gate and slammed in the stretch. How can he win here?

Well, that conveniently eliminates 9 of 20, not bad for a first pass.

Now I have the horses who have a shot, but seem unlikely to me either because I don't think they are quite good enough, or they were unlucky in the post position draw.

Speaking of unlucky in the post position draw, lets go back to post 19 and Desert Party. Its a shame to come from half way around the world only to wind up in the grandstand of the auxilliary gate. Yes its been done before. But two years in a row. I wouldn't bet on it.

#13 I Want Revenge. Ok, I know I'm going to be in trouble for this one, but I have some questions about the strength of a race where the winner is the one that was left at the gate and slammed down the stretch. I do give Joe Talamo all the credit in the world for keeping his wits about him and getting I Want Revenge back in the hunt. But the fact is, had I Want Revenge not been slammed out to the 6 path, there is no way he wins that race. Horses can't move laterally at that pace naturally and it took an unnatural act to get him there. Besides, I just wonder if Joe Talamo is quite ready to step up to the big time. I may be wrong here, but I'll take a stand against I Want Revenge.

#7 Papa Clem is getting better and added a new dimension to his game in the Ark. Derby. But he as lost to Friesan Fire and Pioneerof The Nile both of whom have a little more experience at the stalk and pounce game

#2 Musket Man has done little wrong, but I think the quality of this race may be somewhat above what Musket Man has faced in Tampa and Hawthorne. Maybe I'm just being snobbish, but neither of these places are A list Tracks.

All that being said, I would not be in total shock if any of these horses won the race and I would certainly have them filling out my superfecta ticket if I played superfectas.

Now for the real contenders.

#5 Hold Me Back--Does anyone get the feeling I do that he was using the Bluegrass as a tune up for the big race? In a race with plenty of pace his closing style will be well served if he can get a good trip. Desormeaux knows how to find those good trips.

#10 Regal Ransom beat some of the world's best last out and has the ability to avoid trouble at the calvary charge start and find good position. I think Garcia made the correct choice here.

#11 Chocolate Candy. Jenny Craig's horse finished 2nd a beaten length to Pioneerof The Nile, is a G3 winner and may be able to stay close enough to the pace without having to fight all the traffic the stone closers will face.

#15 Dunkirk didn't have a chance on the Gulfstream turnpike but made a race of it anyway. Should find the extra distance and honest pace to his liking. However, he will have to fight his way through the crowd as he is a slow starter.

That leaves me with Pioneerof The Nile and Friesan Fire. Its too bad The Pamplemousse was unable to make the Santa Anita Derby. I really wanted to see that race. And I'm not worried about the artificial to dirt angle. I really don't understand that logic. I can understand the reverse, that a horse might not take to an artificial surface. But horses evolved and then were developed domestically running on grass and dirt. It seems to me that should be a normal as getting up in the morning. I do worry about the 16th pp for Pioneerof The Nile which is why I am making a well rested, dirt loving, and long stretch drive loving Friesan Fire my number one choice. I'll be playing FF to win and keying him and Pioneerof The Nile in exactas with the other real contenders.

Oh, and if the prices justify it, they probably won't, I'll be looking to single Rachel Alexandra with any and all of my contenders in the Oaks/Derby double.

That's all for now folks.

Turf Paradise Alert

2009-04-27T13:43:00.000-07:00

At 15 minutes to post race 3 Turf Paradise. Take a look at the 5 horse, Glitternmeporridge. Currently at 11-1. This horse 3 for 3 at the distance. Proven Turf winner at 4 for 7. Strong jockey/trainer combination. Runs to par. and a previous winner at this level.

PS Good down to 2-1

PPS Oh Well.

And The Winner Is

2009-04-25T15:04:00.000-07:00

Not me. Unless you get to count now sitting comfortably at home sipping on a nice glass of Buffalo Trace on the rocks.

I warned you about my feelings on the Hawthorne race 6, so if you followed my advice on that one, I take no responsibility. If it were not a HANA Pool Race I would have passed it altogether.

Had the trifecta cold in the 7th race at Calder, not that you would've gotten rich out of a 5 horse race. Actually the race was a pass with no overlays although I did play $2 on the winner in my ADW account so as to avoid paying for the Form today. That's one way to get better than 4 to 5 on a legitimate favorite.

The 8th race was the most frustrating for me. If you read my earlier post, and are actually foolish enough to take my advice, you would've played the #6 horse Annabill at a nice 3-1 price. Not a bomb, but you need these low priced overlays too. However, I was there and saw Annabill in the paddock. Annabill had her ears pinned back, was shaking, and sweating heavily. Normally, if I can get 3-1 on a horse I make 6-5, I'm all over it. In this case, I took Annabill out of play. Had I been playing the home game, I'd have never seen this and played my top choice and cashed a nice wager. Perhaps, next time, if I'm on the premises, I'll just pass the race.

The 9th race should've been a pass with no overlays, and had I been playing the home game I'd have known that. But after making my wager with 1 MTP, #10 Baron Von Tap dropped from 9-1 to 8-1 on the 0 MTP click. What can you do? Again, playing the home game I don't have to hit the submit button until I see the 0 MTP click and could have passed the race. As it was, I didn't have the eventual winner as a contender so I kind of whiffed on that one even though my 2nd choice finished 2nd and the Baron finished 4th, so I didn't totally miss. More like a foul ball.

At least for the 10th race, I was on the right track even if it was the wrong train. Finallymadeit went 5 wide into the first turn. Didn't make the lead and finished up the track and Dream Maestro did, indeed, turn the tables on Finallymadeit. Hopefully, now Javier Negrete will give Finallymadeit the rest he well deserves. Unfortunately for Dream Maestro, Motovato was the best today. I was on the #1 Hey Bryn who wound up at 5-1 and finished 3rd. Hey Bryn tried hard but was no match for the top two today. I don't mind losing this way, at least I had the right contenders, if I stay this close, I'll get my share...and yours too.

May the horse be with you.

Some Saturday Picks

2009-04-25T08:18:00.000-07:00

No time for chit chat. Need to help out with some housework to maintain domestic tranquility before I go to CRC for some live racing later this afternoon. Thought I'd give you some picks to chew on before I leave.

First in line is the HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) the 100k Pretty Jenny Stakes for 3yo Fillies restricted to Illinois breds from Hawthorne Park in Chicago.

I have to admit that I dont really have a good feel for this race so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle and looked for horses making 3yo debut after showing promise as 2yo's. Here are the picks. I will most likely only make a token wager on this one just for the cause.

P# 6th Race

Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Miss Fontana
3-1
9-2
#10 Happy Henrietta
7-2
5-1
#3 Tessies Tilbury
4-1
6-1
#9 Cumulonimble
6-1
9-1
The HANA Race of the week and I have to admit that I really don't have a good feel for this matchup of Ill breds, so I fell back on a Mark Cramer angle of looking for horses that showed promise as 2 yo's making their 3 yo debut. #2 fits that bill winning her 2 yo debut and a State bred stakes before being put on the shelf in Aug last year. Inez Karlsson gets back on. #10 also fits the profile in winning 2yo debut and a state bred stakes in December, comes back after a 4 month freshening. #3 is one for two and could keep on improving with a Hi % jockey aboard and 2nd place OCn1x effort against non state breds. #9 hasn't won yet, but has been in the money 3 of 3 as a 2yo including 2nd in state restricted race and is making 3yo debut. Brandon Meier made the right decision in coming back to Chicago.

Opening Saturday at Calder Race Course and 4 stakes make the opening weekend card including two Graded stakes. I was disappointed to see they were not running with their 2:30 Friday post times this year. I've really enjoyed leaving work on Fridays and catching the late half of the card. I will miss that a lot. I can still do the simulcast from some other track, but its just not the same as seeing real horses.

The 7th race today is the 1 1/2 Mile (turf) LaPrevoyante Handicap-G2 for Fillies and Mares 3 and up.

P# 7th Race

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#4 Criticism
1-1
3-2
#2 Long Approach
5-1
8-1
#3 Icon Project
6-1
9-1

#4 2 time G3 Marathon winner is definitely the one to beat #2 Hi % turf jockey Desormeaux travels south from Ky to team up with Hi % trainer Johnathan Sheppard, not for nothing. #3 Wolfson comes back to the track he dominates and Trujillo rides at track he dominated 2 years ago. Wolfy always has a shot a Calder

Next is the 1 mile 70 yards Emergency Nurse Stakes-Purse 55k for Fillies and Mares 3 and up

P# 8th Race

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Annabill
6-5
9-5
#7 Eclisse
7-2
5-1
#2 Tiara Di Oro
6-1
9-1

#6 The other Wolfson gets his chance to shine here. Annabill wins at a near 50% clip at CRC is 4 of 9 at the distance, is a stakes winner and comes into the race fresh. #7 Marty Wolfson's horse is the only speed in the race and may be able to steal it on the front end. #2 The 2nd Marty Wolfson entry in the race is lightly raced and showing improvement in its last 3 races.

Race 9 is the 1 Mile (Turf) Miami Mile Handicap G3 for 3 and up.

P# 9th Race

Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#2 Rogue Victory
3-1
9-2
#6 Mambo Meister
7-2
5-1
#1 Vanquisher
4-1
6-1
#10 Baron Von Tap
6-1
9-1
I'm expecting that Finallymadeit, Dream Maestro, and Motovato, will scratch out of this race and move to the 10 on dirt where they are also entered, but I have not yet been able to confirm this.#2 Does anyone think Desormeaux is giving up opening Sat. at CD to lose in S. Fla #2 has won 3 of 9 and his running lines look like he's getting ready to pop a big one. #6 is a stakes winner and 1 for three on CRC Turf. Manny Cruz gets back on the Meister. #1 Another tough customer, Stakes winner that is 6 for 17 on the sod with a High % Trainer. #10 may do nothing and may be the upset special of the day. Veteran turf specialist (8yo) with loads of back class has been revived since moving to Ziadie's barn 4 races ago.

And finally the 1 Mile 70 yards Sumter Stakes 55k for 3 and up.

P# 10th Race

Current Odds
Fair Odds
Overlay Odds
#6 Dream Maestro
3-1
9-2
#1 Hey Byrn
7-2
5-1
#7 Motovato
4-1
6-1
#8 Finallymadeit
6-1
9-1
#6 Finally gets to turn the tables on the 8 in a race where the 8 should face more of a pace challenge from Hal's My Hope and Honey Honey Honey. #1 comes in fresh off a turf effort where it became obvious he didn't belong. The rest should do him good and expect return to January form #7 Elvis and Marty team up again and this is another that has the look of a horse moving forward, expect a big effort here. #8 Negrete keeps putting this one out there every 21 days and this one keeps running; however others in this race may show a greater willingness to challenge this need to leader for the early fractions this time. Still this is a gritty horse that can't be totally discounted.

Note as of this writing the 3 dual entered horses have not scratched from either race. Depending on how the scratches fall out, all of the above for races 9 and 10 could be horse manure.

Felonius Wagering

2009-04-23T14:47:00.000-07:00

This comes under the category of learning something new every day. I've just learned today that the HANA race of the week is Saturday, Race 6 at Hawthorne through the following letter.

You may have heard or read that Turf Paradise was to be the target track this Saturday for the HANA Get In The Pool race. Unfortunately, many horseplayers have expressed some big concerns about the law in Arizona which makes it a felony to use an ADW. Many players were very uncomfortable with this. At the HANA conference call Wednesday night it was discussed and decided that we would NOT bet Turf Paradise because of this law.We will be doing R6 at Hawthorne this Saturday 4/25/2009 instead. This is a stakes race with an eleven horse field with a morning line favorite at 4-1. NICE AND JUICY. We also decided to target the RACE and not a specific pool. This way you can handicap the race as you normally would and bet the pool (WPS, Exacta, Tri, Super, etc.) where you see the most value.GOOD LUCK ON SATURDAY.Sincerely,Your HANA Team

I wish they had given more details regarding this absurd law. As I have been known to place a wager at Turf Paradise from the comfort of my living room now and again, I was concerned that I had committed some kind of vile, criminal act in the process. At least now, as I understand it, I'm only a criminal if I placed that wager at some location other than an OTB or the track in Arizona, so I guess I have not violated the law after all. Good, I'm not giving the money back.

Right now, if it were not for ADW, I would be personna non grata from racing at the moment due to the prescence of that new Jack Russell in my house. He demands your attention! I can't even handicap a race at home right now. So each day I have been dutifully downloading a form and finding a race or two at a western track like Hollywood, Golden Gate, or, dare I say it, Turf Paradise and playing the game when I get home from work. As you can see by my little box on the left, this tactic is working out pretty well for me. Thanks Patrick!

Today I scored with a double longshot, each horse at 11-1, exacta at Hollywood in race 3. The funny thing is, I handicapped this race during lunch with no idea of the who the swamis at TVG would like. They, the swamis, like the one horse and so did I as he appeared to be the speed on the rail, and for some reason they also liked the 5 horse. I didn't consider the 5 to be a contender because he had been losing pretty regularly to claimers and the others seemed to have been racing against better. I also rejected the 2 because he had been vanned off last out and even Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert couldn't lure me to that one. The 3 I had rejected because his speed figures just didn't measure up to the others, so unless everyone else faltered and the 3 got better, there was no way for him to win. That left me with the 1,4,6, and 7. The one opened at even money and ended up around 8/5. Underlay, no play. The 4 opened at 5 to 1. The 4 was my 4th choice and I needed 9/1 to play him to win. The 6 and 7 both opened at 14-1 so I licked my chops and got ready to split my win wager and box 6,7/1,4,6,7.

Then the TVG people started talking about the race and they almost talked me off the 4 in favor of the 5 until I referred back to my notes on the race and reminded myself what I didn't like about the 5 and what I liked about the 4. As race time approached the 6 had dropped to underlay status as the 4 had steadily drifted up and was lingering at 8-1, still not enough for a wager. The 7 was pretty solid at 11-1 so he was my huckleberry for the win wager and the key horse in the exacta box in which I also included the 5 as a concession to the wisdom of the TVG commentators. After entering my bet in the TBA spreadsheet I turned back to the odds and saw that the 4 horse had now dropped to 11-1. Had I been gifted with the ability to see the future, this knowledge would've changed my bet, for the better, but I now I had to live with the hand I'd dealt myself.

Well not only the 1, but the 2 and the 5 all raced for the lead and set some torrid fractions. The 6 trailed the lead group by about 3 lengths with the 7 a length further back. The 4 must've been somewhere in the back. As they came around the turn the 6 and 7 both made their runs and over took the lead group at the top of the stretch. I thought that was the way it would finish until I caught the 4 flying down the stretch. Now I was concerned because if the 7 finishes 3rd, I don't get paid. Fortunately, the 3 overtook the 6 and finished 2nd to the 4 turning my $1 exacta (actually $8 total in the exacta) into $112.20. Not a bad way to spend your lunch hour I'd say.

May the horse be with you

Playing the Home Game

2009-04-17T16:32:00.000-07:00

You might've already noticed a change in the Scoreboard to the immediate left. This is due to the fact that I expect to be playing the home game more often for the foreseeable future. The new arrival in my house, now officially named Max (Ruffian was rejected), is very demanding and it is difficult to get much done with a six week old puppy requiring constant attention. Because of this, I think it would be very unfair of me to abandon my darling wife (you thought I was going to say puppy, didn't you?). Therefore my weekly forays to the local racing facilities will be somewhat curtailed at least until the puppy can be trusted to fend for himself a little better in a few months or years or til death do us part.

I started out using the board to follow my Public Handicapper picks, but that is not really an accurate measure of what I'm doing. I'm going to say this knowing full well all the snarky comments I an leaving myself open to. My handicapping methodology is not so much about picking the winner. I prefer to pick losers! Just kidding ;-D Actually, I prefer to pick contenders and then make a play or not based on my opinion of fair odds. Because of that the few wagers I put in there were not necessarily real wagers. That discouraged me and I found it to be pointless. And since I do most of my wagering at the track, it didn't really seem correct to come back after the fact and put up numbers.

Therefore, I removed the phony wagers and the ones you see there now are ones I made and posted in real time. For tomorrow, I'm going to look at a few races from Gulfstream and Keeneland and maybe even head up to Woodbine for a race. Tune in occassionally and you'll be able to see what the weasel is up to in real time.

Oh, and don't worry about that 34% ROI. It won't last very long. I'll be satified just to keep it on the positive side. I found a couple of playable races at Golden Gate for this afternoon. Got the exacta in race two and a dead heat in race 6 turned my 5-2 into 4 -5. So tune in early and tune in often. See what I'm playing then do something else, you can't lose that way.

May the horse be with you

Mountaineer Race 3: Get In the Pool

2009-04-13T17:59:00.000-07:00

The HANA get in the pool race for tomorrow is race 3, a 5k Claimer for non-winners of 2 lifetime. I think Mark Cramer would call this a lesser of evils race, but there could be some overlap into the contentious race category as the field certainly seems evenly matched. Remember the idea is to flood the exacta pool in this race so put your thinking caps on.

And speaking of my favorite authors. J. J. Tuttle continues to trash my review on Amazon while I continue to report positively on a handicapping angle he made a special effort to point out to me. Namely play the longest shot in the short field a short field defined as seven or fewer.

Now, forgive my tardiness in reporting this bomb, but as I said, I was distracted and under the weather last week and not really keeping up with the racing world. However, racing went on without me, and on April 9th at Gulfstream Park the 2nd race saw a 67.9 to 1 shot wire the field.

Having now updated my spreadsheet the tally is as follows. For the Gulfstream 2009 season to date there have been 176 races with 7 or fewer runners. 10 of those races were won by the longest shot in the field. 10/176 = a 5.68% hit rate and more importantly, a $2 investment on each wager totaling $352.00 would've yielded $537.80 or $0.53 for every $1 wagered. With, I think, 8 racing days left in the season it seems safe to declare this a winning angle for Gulfstream Park 2009.

I have begun tracking Woodbine, since I like watching the little chiclets run around and will follow my home track of Calder when it starts up to see if this continues to be a profitable angle. So far, after 13 qualifying races at Woodbine, there have been no winners, but it's still early.

"May the horse be with you."

New Arrival

2009-04-12T03:02:00.000-07:00

It's been an unusual lag from my last post. I've had a cold this week that has kept me feeling pretty run down. Hard to handicap when you're feeling run down. But the main deterrent to my writing is a lack of time due to a new arrival in my family. A lively 6-week old Jack Russell Terrier named Max. All puppies are very demanding on your time, and, as a breed, Jack's are particularly demanding and require a lot of personal attention. The good side of this is I am going to have to be more selective in the races I choose to handicap. The bad news is that I may have to curtail some of my track time. There are always trade-offs. Thank the gods for Twinspires.

Yesterday, I was feeling a little better, so between trips to the back yard to "go potty" I managed to handicap the 4 stakes races at Keeneland, with some good success as it turned out.

I just missed in the Grade 3 Shakertown backing Chamberlain Bridge @ 5-1. I thought 5-1 was a pretty good price on CB. I tossed his last race at Tampa figuring that he didn't care for the surface at Tampa. Florida Turf courses, especially at the 2nd tier courses such as Calder and Tampa can be much different than the type at other tracks such as the Fair Grounds Chamberlain Bridge had shipped from. Even Gulfstream's Turf course has been running like the Florida Turnpike because of the general lack of rain we've had this winter. I thought CB would bounce back after that effort and give a good account of himself which he did finishing a game 3rd behind Cannonball and the winner Heroes Reward.

The pay off race was the G2 Commonwealth Stakes. Hard to ignore Eternal Star with his last ten races all having triple digit Brisnet speed figures. Plus, has My Pal Charlie won anything of significance before or since his Superderby win last year? Yet he still seems to draw a lot of money. I always consider him a bet against feeling he is one of the those over-rated horses making his reputation off the result of one big win. Today was no different as Eternal Star brought home $5.60 for every dollar laid and triggered a 47.00 exacta for me.

I sat out the Grade 2 Jenny Wiley stakes figuring Forever Together just had too much of a class edge over the rest of the field and everyone would know it. I was right on both counts as Julian Leparoux hand rode Forever Together to a win that wasn't as close as the box score would indicate. Forever Together went off at even money which may have been a low priced overlay considering the circumstances. Still I like to look for those bombers that score so often on turf, and there just didn't seem to be any in this race.

Sad to say, I didn't have General Quarters in the Bluegrass as my bias against former claiming horses (ThisonesforPhil?) once again made him a toss out for me. Still, this is a great story and one that will have the television people gushing all Derby week long now that the General will run in the big show (where, incidentally, I will once again exhibit my former claiming horse bias and toss early from contention).

I didn't play the Arkansas Derby, but have to note after watching the replay that Papa Clem showed a new dimension in winning that race. One that could make him a serious contender for the roses on May 2.

And on the business side, I have to note that, once again, the Florida Horseman's Association and Twin Spires are fighting over simulcast revenue so that, once again, it seems if I want to place a bet on a race at Calder, I'll have to make the 10 minute schlep over to the track. I don't really mind as I enjoy the track, but there are times, like yesterday, when other aspects of life have to take priority and I'd just like to isolate a few races and play the home game. So, once again, the racing business factions feud among themselves and the customer is the one who winds up getting screwed. All the more reason for us horse players to organize and flex some of our own muscle in groups such as HANA.

HANA has for the last two weeks been running operation "Get In The Pool". Every Tuesday a smaller track is selected and members of HANA descend upon that track for a designated race to show how much influence HANA as an organization can have. I have to say, I think this is a brilliant idea. Two Tuesdays ago we descended upon Will Rogers Downs where we flooded the win pool of one of the races and increased the handle for that race on that day by 97.2%. Last week it was off to Tampa Bay where we nearly doubled (99.4%) the P3 Pool for races 6-7-8. This Tuesday the lucky recipient of our buycott money will be a Mountaineer exacta pool (race to be determined). By banding together as horseplayers, perhaps we can finally show the business that they ultimately need us, the paying customers, if they hope to remain viable. Join HANA, the price is right, free. And check the website for the next buycott race. http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/

It's Quality Road!

2009-03-29T02:59:00.000-07:00

Quality Road managed to hold off Dunkirk in the strectch as well as an objection from Kent Desormeaux, the rider of Theregoesjojo, and Garrett Gomez on Dunkirk proving to be the best while setting a course record in the Florida Derby.

Quality Road came into Thergoesjojo lane in while turning into the strecth forcing the latter to check and ruining any chance for Theregoesjojo who was certainly in contention up to that moment. Still Quality Road demonstrated his class and fighting spirit in coming back after being headed by Dunkirk to make it look easy at the end winning by 1 and 3/4 lengths.

After the race, according to the Daily Racing Form, Todd Pletcher had this to say,"Obviously they sped up the racetrack today," he said. "There were two or three track records set, and obviously it was to our disadvantage considering our horse's style. If I knew the track would have been like this, I'd have gone to Aqueduct next week to run in the Wood. But I thought my horse ran terrific. He's made huge strides in a short time."

Now, If Todd had been reading the Chalk Eating Weasel Report, he would have known that the track was running fast this week. I have been amazed while entering running times into my track profile this week just how much faster the track was running compared to the previous weeks.

The result the Chalk Eating Weasel was most frustated over was the DQ of Big Drama down to 2nd in favor of This One's For Phil. This DQ resulted from a steward's inquiry into the stretch run. Big Drama did bear out and give TOFP a little bump at the 1/16th pole, but this bump, in my opinion, had no bearing on the outcome of the race. Had this been a 10k claiming race at Calder, no one would've noticed. The harder, and more serious infraction came just before the finish. Here Big Drama move out again and gave TOFP a pretty good thump. However, even here they were only one jump from the finish and Big Drama had a good head in front. The race was over. The stewards saw it differently and reversed the order of finish putting TOFP on top of Big Drama. Now in the interest of full disclosure, The Chalk Eating Weasel had no dog in this fight as his exacta did not include This One's For Phil. In fact, when the inquiry sign was first posted, I was hoping TOFP might be dropped to third allowing Custom For Carlos to move up to 2nd and complete my Philless exacta. Alas that was not to be.

Nicanor had every opportunity to break his maiden yesterday, but he could not pass Glitterman's Cartel in the stretch, so I now await his eventual drop into the Maiden Claiming ranks although I doubt his connections will give up on him just yet.

However, all was not doom and gloom for the Weasel yesterday. I showed up early to claim a place to sit for the long day ahead and watch the races from Dubai. When I noticed Big City Man running in one of the early races, it was the 4th or 5th I don't remember exactly which one, against an overbet Indian Blessing, I couldn't resist putting a fiver on my old Calder Race Course homeboy who out-gamed Indian Blessing in the end to bring home a 5 to 1 payoff.

I also had the Fla. Derby Exacta. Who didn't? But a win is a win. And the G3 Appleton exacta as Kiss the Kid paid the Weasel for the 2nd time this season by finishing ahead of Artic Cry and paying $62 for a $2 investment.

Well that's about it for this entry as well as the Gulfstream meet as most of the big barns will now pull out and move their stables to up to Kentucky and other parts north of the Mason-Dixon Line. Racing will continue at Gulfstream through April 23, but the fields will consist of big stable 2nd stringers and Calder contenders. On the brighter side, the crowds will be smaller and it will be easier to get in bets.

Until next time, May The Horse be With You

Florida Derby Eve

2009-03-27T17:23:00.000-07:00

Ahh. I'm sitting on my sofa sipping on a fine small batch Kentucky Bourbon and comtemplating the great racing that is to come tomorrow. The weather today saw some light rain, but probably not any more than the maintenance crew would put on the track any way. Tomorrow is supposed to dry, but then, so was today so we'll just have to wait and see.

Now for some predictions. In tomorrow's fifth race, Nicanor makes his third start. He could not have found a softer spot without entering for a tag. After tomorrow, Nicanor will be a maiden no longer.

Here is the hunch bet of the day. In the sixth race Justenuffhumor starts for trainer Kiaran McLAUGHlin. Of course, Mr. K will likely be in Dubai, so I don't know how good that angle will be tomorrow.

In the G2 Swale stakes This One's For Phil starts on the rail out of the chute. This post position is not certain death, like coming out of the 12 hole at 9 furlongs, but it is still a disadvantage. Besides, something in me just wants to shout to the world that This One's For Phil is a fraud. A claiming horse that got lucky. However, I have to admit that he led a tougher field than this one for half a mile last out, and he has Go Go Garrett Gomez on his back just for good measure. Still, I'm going to pick against him. Big Drama comes in fresh off a 3 month layoff and is 5 for 6 including a G3 win at Delta Downs. In addition, he breaks from the outside; therefore he should not have any trip troubles as they come down the long back stretch and should be able to settle right in.

In the G3 Appleton stakes, I'm thinkin' Bold Start will pull off a minor upset. The 5 year old horse is amazingly consistent, 2 for 4 on grass and Kenneth McPeek is 25% going Dirt to Turf. Toss out Granizo, I won a $10 bet on him at 2-1 last week thanks to the first to cross the wire in the slop being DQ'd. I only played him then because was 6 for 6 on off tracks. Unless it rains tomorrow, this one does not belong. The usual suspects in this race will be Kiss The Kid and Vanquisher and either of these could win here as well. And if you want a bomb pick it might just be Artic Cry turning back from a 9 furlong Allowance win. Julian Leparoux takes the mount and I can't think of anyone I'd rather have on grass than him.

As for the Derby, it is very difficult to separate the 3 main contenders, you know who they are. That's the problem. Everyone knows who they are. The dark horse that is getting little consideration here is Danger To Society. After winning his first two, he threw in a real clunker in the G3 Holy Bull, or did he? He ran a Brisnet Speed figure of 90 which was only 5 points off his 95 point allowance win the race before. Furthermore, he has since moved to the Dutrow barn, and we all know what kind of magic he can work first time out with a horse. Just look at This One's For Phil! I'm not predicting a win for Danger To Society here. However, I will keep him in mind for my exactas and if the price is right...

Good luck to all tomorrow wherever you choose to play. Oh and speaking of choosing to play, HANA (Horseplayer's Association of North America) has come up with an idea that just may work to show how much influence we, as horseplayers, can have. Every week they are going to pick one race from one track on a week day to play and flood the betting pool for that race. This weeks lucky recipient of this 1 race bonanza is Will Rogers Downs. The race is yet to be selected, but you may find out more about it here. http://blog.horseplayersassociation.org/2009/03/mayo-its-will-rogers-downs.html

May the Horse be with you.

Florida Derby Week

2009-03-25T16:20:00.000-07:00

The Florida Derby is Saturday and the weather is expected to windy but dry and maybe a little on the warm side. I suppose it will be no surprise to reveal that most of the attention in the 9 horse field will be on Quality Road, Theregoesjojo, and Dunkirk. Pletcher has also entered as an uncoupled entry the winless in one attempt Europe. Doubtless Europe is there to be offered as the sacrificial horse to ensure the late running Dunkirk has an honest pace to run at.

In case you're wondering, Dunkirk may need the help of a rabbit if the track runs like it did today. I've been wondering how all the rain we had last week would effect the course. In general the track has been favoring speed, but after entering the times and beaten lengths in my track profile, I'm surprised the Hallandale Beach Police weren't out by the quarter pole with a radar gun writing tickets. We'll see if the speed bias continues until Saturday.

Speaking of bias, the ongoing saga of J. J. Tuttle continues. He sent me an E-Mail last week to boast that my review of his book was going to be taken down and so it was. After I vigorously protested this move to Amazon threatening to rain down upon them all my blogging and racing connections, they saw fit to reinstate my review.

I don't think I've been unfair to Mr. Tuttle. In fact, in the interest of fairness, here's an update on the long shot-short field angle. To date at the Gulfstream meet there have been 121 races meeting the criteria of 7 or fewer horses including one on Saturday won by the 4/5 longshot Nistle's Crunch. Tee hee. That last one was a two horse match race due to scratches caused by the weather. The favored It's Never Too Late was 1/2.

Of those 121 races 7 have been won by the longest shot in the field. For the mathematically impaired, that's a 5.8% hit rate. If you have bet two dollars on the longest shot in the field in every one of these qualifying races you would be ahead $107.60 with an ROI of $0.46. In addition your average winning odds would be 28/1 even with the 4/5 long shot. There, now how much fairer can I be than to report favorably on an angle given me by the author of a book I panned, and still do.

That's all for now

Hialeah to Reopen?

2009-03-19T15:47:00.000-07:00

Bloodhorse.com reports that the old Hialeah Park, in beautiful downtown Hialeah, has been granted a quarter horse license and may begin racing quarter horses beginning March 17, 2010. In addition, there is legislation pending in Tallahassee that would allow the track to run thoroughbreds for up to 50% of the meet. Don't get your hopes up there.

The article goes on to report that the track, which has been closed since 2001, is in bad condition with grass growing on the track, and would require, by estimate of the current owner $30 million to renovate for racing.

There are apparently plans to include a simulcast room and card room.

I don't know if the area can support a third track with two that seem to be just hanging on now. Especially with all the other gaming on and off-shore opportunities available. But I'd sure like to see someone give it a go.

Click here for the full story http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/49738/hialeah-okd-for-quarter-horse-racing

Fair Grounds Stakes

2009-03-14T07:13:00.000-07:00

This week the Publichandicappers.com races are all at the Fair Grounds which is one of my favorite tracks to play, so how could I resist.

The first race in the contest is #5 on the Program: The Bienville 75k for Fillies and Mares 4 years old and up contested at 5.5 f on the Turf track.

Aside, New Orleans is expecting rain today. If this race or the other Turf race is moved to the main track, all bets are off.

Here are the picks.

#4 Classify
3-1
7-2
#2 Tale To Be Told
7-2
5-1
#7 Lady Chace
4-1
6-1
#6 Precious Kiss
6-1
9-1

#4 Classify is 2 for 2 over the Fairgrounds Turf including a win in a similar race two ago. Asmussen will have his regular rider Shaun Bridgmohan aboard #2 Tale to Be Told beat the top choice in November at Churchill. I wouldn't dismiss a cart horse on turf if Leparoux is riding it. #7 Lady Chace beat the top choice on dirt last out, but Classify seems to hold the edge on grass. #6 Precious Kiss is another that has beaten the top choice on dirt. Being the granddaughter of Kris S. gives her some turf pedigree and will make her dangerous is grandpa's influence is strong. She is somewhat inexperienced on grass and that may work against her.

The next contest race is #7 on the card. The G2 New Orleans Handicap for 4 and up. Distance 9f.

#10 Honest Man
3-1
9-2
#4 Dry Martini
7-2
5-1
#1 It's A Bird
4-1
6-1
#8 Good And Lucky
6-1
9-1

In a field of some really good, but no seemingly great horses I have to once again give the home team advantage to #10 Honest Man. HM is 4 of 5 over the FG track and won the G3 Mineshaft over this same course last out. #4 Dry Martini ships over from Gulfstream and should benefit from that excruciatingly long Fair Grounds stretch with his late running style. #1 It's A Bird also ships over from Gulfstream, but please don't call me a homer (although some have called me a Homer). Bird ran a big figure in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and I promise you that Wolfson's horses don't bounce. #8 Good and Lucky gets the nod over Wishful Tomcat for 4th contender due to home track advantage having 4 wins in 7 tries at the Fair Grounds

Race 8 is the Mervyn Muniz Jr. Memorial H. G2 For 4 and up again at 9f on the turf.

Again, if this one is moved to the main track, the following picks may be total nonsense. (so the difference would be?)

#6 Soldier's Dancer
3-1
9-2
#13 Proudinsky
7-2
5-1
#11 Demarcation
4-1
6-1
#1 Windward Islands
6-1
9-1

#6 Soldier's Dancer benefits from the fact that Proudinsky starts from the far outside 14th post does his best running late which may be helpful if the Fair Grounds gets enough rain to soften up the course without taking the race off the grass #13 gets to break from the far outside post. Maybe the long FG stretch will give him an opportunity to find a good position to race from. G2 winner I think is really the best here #11 Demarcation, winner of G2 event at Churchill last November figures to improve 2nd off layoff and 2nd trip over FG course. #1 Windward Islands is in good current form after finishing 2nd in the FG HDCP (G3) and should move forward off that effort.

Finally its the G2 Louisianna Derby (Race 9) at 8.5f for 3 year olds

#3 Patena
3-1
9-2
#9 Friesan Fire
7-2
5-1
#8 Papa Clem
4-1
6-1
#5 Flying Pegasus
6-1
9-1

#3 Patena is today's upset special being taken over by Richard Dutrow and IEAH. There is something remarkable about how horses suddenly improve first out under Dutrow's tutelage (This One's For Phil, for instance). Maybe he's just a great horseman, or maybe he cheats. Either way, he's 33% first time with a horse and 21% in Graded Stakes. Having leading FG rider Robbie Albarado doesn't hurt. #9 Friesan Fire has beaten 6 of the horses in this race before, including the top choice. A repeat would not surprise. #8 Papa Clem spent his last race chasing Pioneerofthe Nile and should set the pace in a relatively paceless race. #5 Flying Pegasus finished 2nd to the 9 last out, but Albardo moves to Patena. Hmmmm

That's all folks. Good luck and enjoy the races.

Handicapping Questions

2009-03-12T16:49:00.000-07:00

Here's a poser for you. The first race Saturday at Gulfstream Park will pit 3 year old Maidens against their old brethren. Therefore the question, can 3 year olds compete with 4 year olds this time of year? Now, in case you're wondering, the older horses are spotting their juniors 8 pounds. But what to look for? Well this is going to be a time when saving all those results charts is going to help.

The first race today was at a mile and eighth for 3 and up fillies and mares. This race was won by a 3 yo with a 4yo finishing 2nd and another 3 yo up for the show.

The fifth race was a similar for the other gender. This time won by a 4 yo with a 3yo 2nd and a 5yo gelding 3rd. Hmmm. Does 8 or 9 pounds really mean that much? I may have to reexamine some of my beliefs here.

I should point out that in both of these races, the 3 year olds seemed to have the post position advantages with the inside posts being very advantageous at this distance on Gulfstreams dirt track. The fifth race was run by a horse coming out of the 7 hole which is the farthest out I will even consider for win contention at this distance, unless your name is Big Brown.

There was a 5.5 furlong sprint on the 11th for fillies and mares where the 4 yo's had their way with the younger crowd. Maybe distance is important. After all carrying all that extra weight would seem to take it's toll nearer the end than the beginning.

On March 6th a 7 furlong race for 3 and up claimers N2L was carded but there were no 3 year old takers, and the same again on March 4. So it seems that trainers will throw their 3 yo maidens out there against older maidens, but not against winners.

A limited sample, I admit. But I think I have to give the edge to the older horses on Saturday going a mile. Neither of the contending 4 year olds are breaking from an inside post, which has been a disadvantage for the GP mile.

Now for an update on the short field long price theory. Just to remind you, it has been suggested that playing the longest priced horse in a field of 7 or fewer can be a successful betting angle. In today's 4th race there was just such a winner as Storm Slew crossed the wire first paying a hefty $68.00 on a $2.00 wager for a 33-1 winner.

I have not been able to add to the count from my Calder charts due to a heavier than normal work load. I have been able to keep up with the progress at Gulfstream Park. To date for the meet this angle has won 6 times in 80 opportunities for a 7.5% hit rate. However, with an average winning mutual of 33.4-1 you would have gained a $1.15 for every dollar wagered. That's not too shabby so long as you have the patience to wait through the dry spells. The last winning wager using this angle at GP came on Feb. 22. Thirty-two wagers ago.

I still wonder if this angle would hold true for most tracks or are some tracks more amenable than others to this angle. That's why I'd really love to dig into the Calder charts, but I just haven't had the time to process the data.

Maybe I'll have to eat some crow and retract my assessment of Mr. J. J. Tuttle. But not yet.

So Now What?

2009-03-06T17:39:00.000-08:00

OK. So Magna Entertainment Corp. finally filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection. We all knew it would happen, and I'm sure not breaking any news. So now what? What are the intentions of MI Developments, the apparent beneficiary of Magna's embarassment. MI played hardball with Magna with regards to extending due dates on loan payments. I don't know about you, but MI Developments doesn't sound like the type of company interested in running thoroughbred racing establishments. Can you say, year round racing at Calder Race Course?

No Publichandicapper picks this week. No I'm not totally embarassed by my dismal public performance thus far. I've just been up to my eyeballs at work this week and have barely had time for tomorrow's Gulfstream program. Just in case your keeping score, last week I lost 3 bets and the Sham at Santa Anita was a pass. Although one could make the case that The Pamplemousse had the race in hand gate to wire, at least I did get the satisfaction of having Take The Points at least give the appearance that there was a race going on for a good bit of the race. Take that Valerie!

One race that I am particularly looking forward to tomorrow at GP is race 8, a 7 furlong sprint for Maiden 3 year olds. I don't particularily care for these affairs for wagering purposes, but this one does feature some interesting characters. First Nicanor, Barbaro's full brother, makes his return to the races after taking much public abuse after his disappointing and overbet debut. In fairness, Nicanor did show a brief flash of potential before throwing in the towel, but he'll have to improve markedly to make a dent in this field. I'm willing to bet that he will be a somewhat longer price than 5 to 2 this time.

I'm looking for Dubinsky to give a better effort than last out turning back from a mile in what appears to be a perfect turnback set up. Patrick Reynolds is O for Gulfstream so far this season. Is there such a thing as due in horse racing?

There is also a Million Dollar horse, Big Top, making his debut for trainer Nick Zito. This grandson of Storm Cat has been tearing up the training track and firing bullets left and right. I am interested to see if this expensive mound of muscle can do the same when there are others on the track.

I will also take a personal interest in Woodford Manhattan, owned by the purveyor of my favorite bourbon, make his racing debut. The Woodford Reserve is on me should he be the winner.

However, the one they'll all likely be chasing to the finish line is Custom For Carlos. Custom For Carlos returns after finishing 2nd and running a 93 speed figure (Not Beyer's, but however Brisnet calculates it). Par for the race is 94, so any improvement at all in his 2nd effort figures to blow the competition away. I'm pretty sure CFC will be pretty heavily favored here, but these are 3 year olds so who knows what will happen?

And another thing. Why is it that they can get a full field of 14 for a run of the mill G3, 100k turf race? By the way, Wild Promises will be back to take some more Florida stakes money back to Cali with her. Yet, they can't find more than six Florida breds, three of whom including Hal's My Hopeless, have no business running in a 75k stakes race. Nothing personal to Hal's My Hope. It's not his fault his trainer, Barry Rose, keeps running him over his head. Is the state of Florida racing such a dismal affair that they can't fill a field to run for 75k. Yesbyjimminy should be the public choice here, and Hypocrite may give him a run for the money. Green Vegas may have a very outside chance, but other than that... Nada!

Well this has been quite the rant. I hope you've had as much fun as I had.